High Wind Warning 3, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

584 
WWUS75 KFGZ 292115
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
215 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2023

AZZ014-017-301200-
/O.CON.KFGZ.HW.W.0003.230330T0900Z-230331T0000Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-White Mountains-
Including the cities of St. Johns, Springerville, Show Low, 
Greer, and Pinetop
215 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2023 /315 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MST /3 AM MDT/
TO 5 PM MST /6 PM MDT/ THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph, with gusts from 55 to 65 
  mph are expected by later tonight through Thursday afternoon.

* WHERE...Southern Apache County, mainly on the north side of the
  White Mountains.

* WHEN...From 2 AM MST to 5 PM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult especially 
  for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

AZZ016-300900-
/O.EXT.KFGZ.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230330T0900Z/
Eastern Mogollon Rim-
Including the cities of Heber, Happy Jack, and Forest Lakes
215 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph, with gusts from 40 to 50 
  mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Mogollon Rim.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AZZ004>008-300400-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230330T0400Z/
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Including the cities of Fredonia, Jacob Lake, Page, Lees Ferry, 
Grand Canyon Village, Supai, North Rim, Valle, Prescott, 
Seligman, and Ash Fork
215 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2023 /315 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST /10 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph, with gusts from 40 to 50
  mph.

* WHERE...The Kaibab and Coconino Plateaus, as well as the 
  mountains of Yavapai County.

* WHEN...From 11 AM MST this morning to 9 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AZZ012-015-300900-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230330T0900Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Western Mogollon Rim-
Including the cities of Wupatki N.M., Tuba City, Flagstaff, 
Williams, and Munds Park
215 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2023 /315 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST /3 AM MDT/
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph, with gusts from 40 to 50
  mph.

* WHERE...The western Mogollon Rim, especially northeast of high
  terrain including portions of the Little Colorado River Valley.

* WHEN...From 2 PM MST this afternoon to 2 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AZZ013-301200-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230331T0000Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Including the cities of Winslow, Holbrook, and Snowflake
215 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2023 /315 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM MDT/
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph, with gusts from 40 to 50
  mph.

* WHERE...Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County.

* WHEN...From 2 PM MST/3 PM MDT this afternoon to 5 PM MST/6 PM 
  MDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AZZ011-039-040-301200-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0007.230330T0900Z-230331T0000Z/
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Window Rock, Ganado, Navajo N.M., Dilkon,
and Kykotsmovi
215 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2023 /315 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MST /3 AM MDT/ TO
5 PM MST /6 PM MDT/ THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph, with gusts from 45 to 55
  mph.

* WHERE...The Chuska Mountains, Black Mesa, and portions of the
  Little Colorado River Valley, impacting much of Navajo Nation.

* WHEN...From 3 AM MDT to 6 PM MDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

531 
WWUS75 KFGZ 300359
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
859 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2023

AZZ004>008-300500-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230330T0400Z/
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Including the cities of Fredonia, Jacob Lake, Page, Lees Ferry, 
Grand Canyon Village, Supai, North Rim, Valle, Prescott, 
Seligman, and Ash Fork
859 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2023 /959 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MST /10 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING...

The strong southwest winds have decreased in intensity this
evening as expected, allowing the Wind Advisory to expire on time.
Breezy winds with occasional gusts of up to 35 mph are likely 
tonight through Thursday as a storm moves through the region.

$$

AZZ014-017-301400-
/O.CON.KFGZ.HW.W.0003.230330T0900Z-230331T0000Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-White Mountains-
Including the cities of St. Johns, Springerville, Show Low, 
Greer, and Pinetop
859 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2023 /959 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MST /3 AM MDT/
TO 5 PM MST /6 PM MDT/ THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph, with gusts from 55 to 65 
  mph are expected by later tonight through Thursday afternoon.

* WHERE...Southern Apache County, mainly on the north side of the
  White Mountains.

* WHEN...From 2 AM MST to 5 PM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult especially 
  for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

AZZ012-015-016-300900-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230330T0900Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-
Including the cities of Wupatki N.M., Tuba City, Flagstaff, 
Williams, Munds Park, Heber, Happy Jack, and Forest Lakes
859 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2023 /959 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST /3 AM MDT/
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph, with gusts from 40 to 50 
  mph.

* WHERE...The western Mogollon Rim, especially northeast of high
  terrain including portions of the Little Colorado River Valley.

* WHEN...Through 2 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AZZ011-039-040-301400-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0007.230330T0900Z-230331T0000Z/
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Window Rock, Ganado, Navajo N.M., Dilkon,
and Kykotsmovi
859 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2023 /959 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MST /3 AM MDT/ TO
5 PM MST /6 PM MDT/ THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph, with gusts from 45 to 55 
  mph.

* WHERE...The Chuska Mountains, Black Mesa, and portions of the
  Little Colorado River Valley, impacting much of Navajo Nation.

* WHEN...From 3 AM MDT to 6 PM MDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AZZ013-301400-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230331T0000Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Including the cities of Winslow, Holbrook, and Snowflake
859 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2023 /959 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM MDT/
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph, with gusts from 40 to 50 
  mph.

* WHERE...Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County.

* WHEN...Through 5 PM MST/6 PM MDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

045 
WWUS75 KFGZ 300858
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
158 AM MST Thu Mar 30 2023

AZZ012-015-016-301000-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230330T0900Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-
Including the cities of Wupatki N.M., Tuba City, Flagstaff, 
Williams, Munds Park, Heber, Happy Jack, and Forest Lakes
158 AM MST Thu Mar 30 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 2 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING...

Wind speeds have decreased below advisory thresholds and the
advisory will be allowed to expire. However, a cold front pushing
through the region overnight will lead to continued wind gusts of
20 to 30 mph.

$$

AZZ014-017-310000-
/O.CON.KFGZ.HW.W.0003.230330T0900Z-230331T0000Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-White Mountains-
Including the cities of St. Johns, Springerville, Show Low, 
Greer, and Pinetop
158 AM MST Thu Mar 30 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southern Apache County, mainly on the north side of the
  White Mountains..

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult especially 
  for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

AZZ011-039-040-310000-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0007.230330T0900Z-230331T0000Z/
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Window Rock, Ganado, Navajo N.M., Dilkon,
and Kykotsmovi
158 AM MST Thu Mar 30 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST/6 PM MDT/ THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The Chuska Mountains, Black Mesa, and portions of the
  Little Colorado River Valley, impacting much of Navajo Nation.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST/6 PM MDT/ this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AZZ013-310000-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230331T0000Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Including the cities of Winslow, Holbrook, and Snowflake
158 AM MST Thu Mar 30 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST/6 PM MDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

577 
WWUS75 KFGZ 302359
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
459 PM MST Thu Mar 30 2023

AZZ014-017-310100-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230331T0000Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-White Mountains-
Including the cities of St. Johns, Springerville, Show Low, 
Greer, and Pinetop
459 PM MST Thu Mar 30 2023 /559 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023/

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST /6 PM MDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

The strong southwest winds have begun to decrease this evening 
below warning criteria. The strongest gust observed was at
Springerville Airport of 62 mph around 2:15 pm MST. Winds will 
continue to decrease in intensity over the next few hours with 
occasional gusts of 25 to 40 mph. The High Wind Warning will 
expire on time. 

$$

AZZ011-039-040-310100-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-230331T0000Z/
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Window Rock, Ganado, Navajo N.M., Dilkon,
and Kykotsmovi
459 PM MST Thu Mar 30 2023 /559 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST /6 PM MDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

The persistent, gusty southwest winds have begun to decrease in
intensity this evening, below advisory criteria. This is why the
Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire on time. Expect
occasional gusts of 25 to 35 mph for the remainder of this 
evening due to scattered snow shower activity.

$$

AZZ013-310100-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230331T0000Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Including the cities of Winslow, Holbrook, and Snowflake
459 PM MST Thu Mar 30 2023 /559 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST /6 PM MDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

The persistent, gusty southwest winds have begun to decrease in
intensity this evening, below advisory criteria. This is why the
Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire on time. Expect
occasional gusts of 25 to 35 mph for the remainder of this 
evening due to scattered snow shower activity.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
930 PM MST Tue Mar 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Warn and windy conditions are expected on Wednesday
ahead of storm system that is expected to bring rain and high
elevation snow to the region on Thursday. Dry conditions with
warming temperatures then return for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Latest guidance this evening has come in with a bit
better dynamics for the upcoming system, with the GFS the most
bullish and coming in quite a bit wetter than the other guidance.
Both QPF and PoPs were adjusted for the Wednesday night-Thursday
night timeframe to keep within the envelope of the latest guidance
a bit better. Since QPF increased, snow amounts increased a tad
over the higher terrain with this evenings update. However, given
the gusty winds and marginal temperatures during the daytime on
Thursday, snow ratios (and consequently amounts) will likely not
be very high. The current forecast calls for around 2-4 inches in
the upslope areas over the Kaibab Plateau and the Mogollon Rim and
a Trace-2" elsewhere above 6000 feet. The most intense rain and
snow looks to move into the region Thursday morning, as strong
frontogenetic forcing moves into region. Outside of that
timeframe, less intense isolated to scattered rain and snow
showers will be possible.

While accumulations are not forecast to be significant, hazardous
driving conditions will be possible due to poor visibility and
snow covered roads. Gusty winds may also further hamper travel
with patchy blowing and drifting snow.

Beyond the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, the afternoon forecast
package remains on track and unchanged. Previous discussion
continues below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /231 PM MST/...After a period of tranquil
weather, our next upper level low, currently across the Pacific
NW, is forecast to dive southward along the California coastline
through the day on Wednesday. Thereafter, the multi-model grand
ensemble projects that this low will transition more into an open
wave as it slides through the Four Corners region. Wednesday and
Thursday offer the best opportunities for precipitation and wind
gusts in excess of 30 mph.

On Wednesday, the low level height gradient is expected to
tighten resulting in a conveyor of 40 to 45 knot flow aloft
across the western Coconino and Kaibab Plateaus as well as the
higher terrain of Yavapai County. Around 80-90% of NBM v4.1
membership advertises peak wind gusts in excess of 40 mph across
these aforementioned areas on Wednesday and as a result a Wind
Advisory has been hoisted for these regions. Other areas that may
approach 40 mph wind gusts include locales downwind of the
Mogollon Rim and across the Black Mesa. At this juncture,
probabilities are lower for areas along and east of the U.S. HWY
89/I-17 corridors on Wednesday, but we'll need to evaluate the
next suite of NWP this evening and into early tomorrow morning.

The active weather pattern will continue late in the day on
Wednesday and into the pre-dawn hours on Thursday, as the first
wave of precipitation is forecast to develop near the CA/AZ/NV
border. The tail end of the 12 UTC HREF guidance suggests that
initial bands of precipitation will slide into the western
Coconino and Kaibab Plateaus with the upslope machine cranking up
along the central and eastern Mogollon Rim. Enhanced surface flow
(40 to 50+ mph wind gusts) downwind of the higher terrain
features are common in this pattern and we'll need to monitor for
any wind headlines Wednesday night into Thursday along the
Mogollon Rim.

Late Wednesday through sunrise Thursday, the greatest
precipitation chances (20%-60%)reside along the central Mogollon
Rim/SF Peaks and areas west of US HWY 89. 1-2" snowfall amounts
forecast largely above 6500' elevation during this period.
Through the day on Thursday, the mid/low level height gradient
intensifies initially as the main upper trough approaches. With
intermittent periods of moderate snow, the Thursday morning
commute may be slick and hazardous, especially across areas above
6500' elevation. The height gradient will tighten most noticeably
along the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains area after
sunrise. With the percentage of NBM membership with wind gusts of
60 mph or greater around 90%...a High Wind Watch has been issued
for the White Mountains area. Additional wind headlines may be
required for the rest of the High Country, but at this time,
there's still a little too difficult to discern which areas may
experience the strongest winds. Regardless, individuals across the
area should secure any loose outdoor articles and be prepared for
difficult driving conditions (due to the combo of wind and
precipitation). With 50 to 55 mph winds some impacts to power
infrastructure cannot be discounted.

Thursday afternoon and into Friday evening offered the opportunity
to make the most noteworthy changes to the PoP/QPF fields from the
NBM. While flow aloft becomes a bit more westerly, mid-level
moistening in both 2D plots and forecast soundings takes place as
120 meter height falls overspread the area. Forecast soundings
also reveal the presence of 100-300 J/kg of CAPE, most noticeably
north of I-40. With the cooler pocket of air aloft, mid-level
moistening, and instability, there will be a thunderstorm risk.
Brief bouts of intense snowfall rates (1-2"/hr) cannot be
discounted and it is within these deeper showers and storms that
travel will become extremely dangerous due to visibility under 1
mile, winds in excess of 30 mph, and slick roadways. The most
likely time frame for these bouts of showers and thunderstorms
will be Thursday afternoon and into Thursday evening and the
preferred area will generally be along and north of I-40. As a
result, the Thursday afternoon/evening commute may be challenging
due to these showers and isolated storms.

Storm total snow amounts (Wednesday Evening - Friday Morning) for
the area actually reside within the 50th to 75th percentile of
the NBM (on average 2 to 4 inches for locations largely above
6500'). Worst case scenario (NBM 90th percentile) would result in
storm total snowfall closer to 3 to 6 inches across the High
Country. Should showers and thunderstorms become more widespread
than currently anticipated, the 90th percentile snow accumulations
may offer a more reasonable forecast.

Precipitation is forecast to exit stage right (to the east in our
case) by midnight Friday. Wind gusts will abate below 40 mph with
largely uneventful weather this weekend and into next week. The
coldest night appears to be Friday morning with temperatures in
the teens and twenties across the mountains to thirties and 40s
elsewhere. The upper air pattern remains largely zonal into next
week, but limited moisture precludes mentioning any precipitation
in the forecast. Technically, the greatest PoPs are around 10%
along the UT/AZ/CO border Monday and into Tuesday, but we'll
examine the need for higher precipitation chances with subsequent
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z TAF package...VFR conditions will continue
through the TAF period. South to southwest winds 5 to 15 knots,
increasing after 17Z to 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warmer conditions continue Wednesday, with
southwest winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph and gusting as high as 35
to 45 mph. Winds remain gusty Wednesday night, with rain and snow
moving in west to east late at night. Strong southwest winds are in
the forecast for Thursday, along with a good chance of rain and
snow.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions return on Friday through
Sunday, with a warming trend. Decreasing winds turn westerly on
Friday, variable on Saturday and then return to southwesterly on
Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 2 PM MST to 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ004>008.

High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
afternoon for AZZ014-017.

&&

PUBLIC...Humphreys/Bain
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff