High Wind Warning 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

056 
WWUS75 KFGZ 151438
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
738 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2023

AZZ014-017-151700-
/O.EXT.KFGZ.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230115T1700Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-White Mountains-
Including the cities of St. Johns, Springerville, Show Low, 
Greer, and Pinetop
738 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2023 /738 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2023/

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...The strongest winds with gusts up to 65 mph are 
  expected over and just north of the White Mountains. This 
  includes Vernon, Greer, Springerville, Eagar, and Nutrioso. 

* WHEN...Until 10 AM MST this morning.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult especially 
  for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

371 
WWUS75 KFGZ 151654
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
954 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2023

AZZ014-017-151800-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230115T1700Z/
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-White Mountains-
Including the cities of St. Johns, Springerville, Show Low, 
Greer, and Pinetop
954 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2023 /954 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2023/

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM MST THIS MORNING...

High winds from earlier this morning over the region will continue
to gradually decrease, but remaining in the 20 to 35 mph range
through the day. 

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1051 AM MST Sat Jan 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected
today before several rounds of rain and snow push across Arizona
starting this evening, lasting through Tuesday. Significant snow
accumulation is expected over the High Country above 5500 feet,
with minor flooding possible in the lower elevations.

&&

.UPDATE...Cloudy skies this morning across northern Arizona as our
next storm system approaches. Weather will be dry for most areas
through this afternoon and at least early evening, so any outdoor
or travel plans across the high country are best accomplished now.
Not much has changed regarding the first round of rain and snow
that is due later this evening through Sunday, see below for
details. If anything, rain and snow amounts are looking slightly
heavier than previously. The next wave of rain and snow will
feature lower snow levels than this first one, with a cold low
moving overhead by Tuesday. We will be considering a Winter Storm
Watch for portions of the area from Monday afternoon or evening
into Tuesday with the afternoon package. In addition, very strong
winds look increasingly likely over the downslope areas off the
eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mtns late tonight and Sunday
morning (Vernon, Springerville, Eagar) and we will be looking at a
Wind Advisory or High Wind Warning in these areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /340 AM MST/...Look for one more day of fair
weather and mild temperatures but with increasing southwest winds
and clouds as a moist Pacific trough approaches Arizona during
the day.

Tonight through Sunday...The first in a series of Pacific troughs
will move across Arizona. There will be ample moisture and large-
scale dynamics for upward motion with this system to produce
widespread precipitation. In addition, 50 to 60 mph winds just off
the surface will result in decent upslope enhancement on any
southwest facing slopes. The snow level will start out in the 6000
to 7000 foot range this evening but steadily fall through the
night as colder air moves in with the trough. By Sunday morning
snow levels will range from around 5000 feet across northwest
Arizona to 6500 feet over the White Mountains region in east
central Arizona. The strongest upslope and heaviest snow will be
located along the Kaibab Plateau, Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
where 6 to 12 inches of snow is expected with higher amounts over
the mountain peaks and the southern edge of the Kaibab Plateau
and Mogollon Rim. At elevations above 6000 feet across the
northeast corner of Arizona away from the deeper moisture snow is
not expected to be as heavy but still 2 to 6 inches of snow
accumulation is expected through Sunday. Whiteout conditions will
be possible from late this evening through midday Sunday with
travel conditions majorly impeded. Lower elevations south of the
Mogollon Rim will largely see rain with area washes and creeks
beginning to flow/rise. A few low water crossings are bound to be
flooded but nothing more significant than that is anticipated. A
Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for
the Saturday night and Sunday storm go to weather.gov/flagstaff
for details.

From Monday into Tuesday...On Monday the air mass will remain
cold and moist with snow showers continuing at elevations above
5500-6500 feet, rain showers at lower elevations. By late Monday
afternoon the next trough begins to move in. This system will be
intensifying as it approaches Arizona and will contain stronger
large-scale dynamics for upward lift than the Sunday storm.
Upslope flow with this second trough will be only slightly weaker.
With ample moisture remaining across the area snow and rain
showers will dramatically increase with the onset of dynamics
Monday night. The most recent model runs have increased
precipitation amounts with this second storm due it's stronger
intensity. Expect another round of serious winter driving
conditions Monday night through Tuesday. We will be keeping an eye
on this one but anticipate an additional Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory will be needed.

Wednesday onward...It will remain cold and unsettled with another
cold but drier trough due in later on Thursday into Friday which
could produce additional snow showers. We'll keep you posted.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF package...VFR persist through 00Z with
increasing mid to upper-level cloud cover. Southwest winds develop
this afternoon, sustained 10-20 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts. They
will continue to get stronger over the higher terrain overnight with
gusts up to 45 kts along a KFLG-KSOW-KJTC line. Moderate turbulence
is likely. Conditions begin to deteriorate by 03Z as rain and snow
develop from west to east. Widespread MVFR/IFR with localized LIFR
VIS and CIGS are expected overnight and into Sunday morning
resulting in mountain obscuration. Heavy snowfall with significant
accumulation and blowing snow is likely for KGCN-KCMR-KFLG during
this time. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph, with gusts 30
to 40 mph are expected through tonight. Dry conditions remain for
this afternoon, with widespread rain and snow developing from west
to east later this evening, continuing into Sunday. Significant
snowfall accumulation is likely in the High Country during this time.

Monday through Wednesday...Periods of breezy southwest winds and
rain and snow is expected to continue through Tuesday, with drier
conditions returning on Wednesday as winds shift to the northwest
and temperatures remain cold.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Sunday
for AZZ004-104.

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
Sunday for AZZ006>008-038-106>108-138.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM MST Sunday
for AZZ011-017-018-039-111-117-118-139.

Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Sunday
for AZZ015-115.

Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 5 PM MST Sunday
for AZZ016-116.

&&

PUBLIC...JJ/Humphreys
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff