Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

506 
WGUS75 KFGZ 130155
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
655 PM MST Wed Jul 12 2023

AZC007-017-130205-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230713T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-Navajo AZ-
655 PM MST Wed Jul 12 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LOCATIONS NEAR CEDAR CREEK 
IN NORTHERN GILA COUNTY..

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures and keep 
away from area creeks and washes as water flows will remain elevated.

LAT...LON 3408 11018 3408 11011 3404 10998 3390 11006
      3388 11014 3378 11027 3381 11031 3382 11031

$$

EFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
234 PM MST Wed Jul 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm coverage will decrease and
move east of Flagstaff through the end of the week, with dry
conditions this weekend. Temperatures will steadily rise into the
weekend, with widespread hot to dangerous temperatures across
Arizona. Storm chances look to return for next week, but
temperatures will remain hot.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Rest of today into tonight...Ongoing showers and
storms are located over the Whites and southern Mogollon Rim. WIth
limited moisture with the high shifting, activity north of where
it's currently located isn't expected for the remainder of the
day, outside of some isolated showers. Overall storm progression
is very slow, so an isolated minor flooding threat will persist
around the Whites into this evening. Once again, leftover cloud
cover from today's showers and storms will hold temperatures up
overnight.

Tomorrow through end of the week...as the high shifts, precip
chances will continue to drop and become confined primarily over
the Whites. The high's shift, combined with drier conditions will
allow for temperatures to continue to increase as we near the
weekend. For that reason, heat advisories have been added to
accompany the heat warnings that are in effect. By Friday, even
higher elevation locations will start to warm into the 90s...which
coincides with areas where many don't have AC.

This weekend...temperatures will reach their max over the weekend
with Sunday looking like the hottest day right now. Most of
Arizona will be hitting triple figures, with many even hitting 110
degrees. Higher elevation locations that typically don't hit 90
often will be warming well into the 90s with Flagstaff forecast to
hit 95 degrees, just 2 degrees shy of the all-time record.

Next week...High pressure will start to settle back into a more
favorable position Sunday into next week with POPs project to
quickly ramp back up Monday into Tuesday next week. Despite the
clouds and rain chances, it does take some time to bring
temperatures down with temperatures not notably decreasing until
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z TAF Package...VFR is forecast through the
entire TAF cycle. Westerly winds of 10 and 15 knots, with gusts as
great as 20 knots are forecast this afternoon. There remains a 20%
to 30% chance for SHRA INVOF FLG, SEZ, and INW this afternoon.
Gusty/erratic winds in excess of 30 knots are the main hazards.
Variable winds under 5 knots are probable. SHRA chances diminish to
under 20% for Thursday afternoon. Variable winds under 5 knots will
become more westerly through the day with speeds largely around 10
knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Daily shower and storm
coverage will continue to decrease Thursday and Friday, becoming
confined to the Whites. Temperatures will be increasing and RHs will
be dropping: min RHs for most by Friday will be in the low teens to
single digits. Winds remain westerly each day with gusts 20-25 mph.

Saturday through Monday...20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms
will remain for the White Mountains area each afternoon.
Temperatures continue to increase with very hot temperatures expected
Saturday and Sunday with even high elevation areas warming into the
mid to upper 90s. Widespread single-digit min RHs will occur. Shower
and storm chances start to increase again Monday and spread north
along the Mogollon Rim.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Friday to 8 PM MST /9
PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ004-006>008-011>018-037-038-040.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Friday to 8 PM
MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ005-037.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ006.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Sunday to 8 PM MST /9
PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ009-010-039.

&&

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...Bain
FIRE WEATHER...RKR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
255 PM MST Wed Jul 12 2023

AZZ014-017-018-122230-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-Northern Gila
County-White Mountains-
255 PM MST Wed Jul 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Gila, Apache and
Navajo Counties through 330 PM MST...

At 255 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
North Fork, or 19 miles south of Show Low, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Springerville, Eagar, North Fork, Lyman Lake State Park, Whiteriver,
Fort Apache Reservation, Los Burros Campground, Mcnary, Lyman Lake,
and Becker Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 State Route 373 between mile markers 386 and 387.
 State Route 273 between mile markers 378 and 380.
 State Route 260 between mile markers 358 and 393.
 State Route 473 between mile markers 0 and 10.
 State Route 73 between mile markers 344 and 357.
 Highway 180 191 between mile markers 380 and 394.
 Highway 60 between mile markers 368 and 388.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3386 10993 3402 11003 3445 10925 3421 10909
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 272DEG 8KT 3397 10992

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

MAS