Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
200 PM MST Fri May 19 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm chances will continue each afternoon and
evening through the weekend across northern Arizona, especially
over higher terrain. The main concerns include hail, gusty winds,
and brief downpours that may lead to localized flooding.
Thunderstorm chances decrease by early next week with a return to
dry, warmer and breezy weather by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak trough will remain over Arizona through
Monday. Moisture will remain entrenched across the area with showers
and thunderstorms from late morning through early evening each day
with the onset of daytime heating. Look for day to day variations
in storm coverage but there is expected to be a gradual downturn
in activity as the air mass begins to slowly dry. It will remain
relatively cold aloft so all storms will be capable of producing
small hail with isolated storms producing hail up to quarter size.
Strong thunderstorm winds should not be an issue with only light
winds aloft to mix to the surface and a fairly cool boundary
layer for weak evaporative cooling. As always, watch out for that
cloud-to-ground lightning.

From Tuesday onward...Dry southwest flow will develop over
Arizona. We could squeeze in one more day of isolated showers and
thunderstorms north of the Mogollon Rim as the last vestiges of
moisture exit the state. Beyond that, warm and dry conditions move
in. Hate to say it but the showers and storms of today will be
replaced by windy conditions toward the end of next week as a dry
trough moves across the western states.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z TAF Package...Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms through 02Z then diminishing to isolated overnight.
Outflow winds to 25-35 knots and MVFR conditions are the main
hazards. Scattered showers and thunderstorms returning by late
Saturday morning. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms (40 to 80 percent
chance) on Saturday, especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim
and White Mountains. Thunderstorms are expected again on Sunday with
the greatest chances (40 to 60 percent) along and north of the
Mogollon Rim.

Monday through Wednesday...Thunderstorm chances generally decrease
Monday into early next week. Storms that do form may create frequent
lightning, gusty erratic outflow winds and heavy downpours. Dry and
windy conditions return by Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
305 PM MST Fri May 19 2023

AZZ008-037-192230-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
305 PM MST Fri May 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Prescott in Yavapai
County through 330 PM MST...

At 304 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Prescott Airport, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chino Valley, Prescott Valley, Prescott, Dewey-humboldt, Prescott
Airport, Williamson Valley, Prescott Gateway Mall, Iron Springs,
Yavapai Campground, Downtown Prescott, Indian Hill West Prescott, Oak
Knoll Village, Lynx Lake Dam and Prescott Valley Event Center.

This includes the following highways...
 State Route 89 between mile markers 310 and 327.
 State Route 89A between mile markers 318 and 325.
 State Route 69 between mile markers 277 and 279, and between mile
markers 284 and 296.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 11255 3474 11234 3445 11221 3457 11271
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 356DEG 16KT 3464 11242

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
314 PM MST Fri May 19 2023

AZZ008-037-192245-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
314 PM MST Fri May 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Yavapai County,
south of Mayer, through 345 PM MST...

At 313 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cordes, or 24 miles south of Prescott Valley. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cordes, Bumble Bee, Turney Gulch Group Campground and Hazlett Hollow
Campground.

This includes Interstate 17 between mile markers 256 and 257.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3436 11222 3425 11210 3412 11225 3429 11239
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 058DEG 2KT 3426 11224

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

RKR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
324 PM MST FRI MAY 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     HAIL             2 SW CORDES             34.29N 112.20W
05/19/2023  E0.70 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME-SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. STILL
            HAILING AT TIME OF REPORT.

&&

BAK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
330 PM MST Fri May 19 2023

AZZ008-037-192300-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
330 PM MST Fri May 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Yavapai County,
including Prescott, through 400 PM MST...

At 329 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Prescott Gateway Mall, or near Prescott. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Prescott, Prescott Valley, Groom Creek Subdivision, Prescott Gateway
Mall, Iron Springs, Downtown Prescott, Ponderosa Park, Indian Hill
West Prescott, Oak Knoll Village, Lower Wolf Creek Campground, Lynx
Lake Dam, Prescott Valley Event Center, Upper Wolf Creek Group
Campground and White Spar Campground.

This includes the following highways...
 State Route 89 between mile markers 300 and 319.
 State Route 89A between mile markers 318 and 321.
 State Route 69 between mile markers 288 and 296.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 11238 3451 11227 3442 11253 3458 11261
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 058DEG 1KT 3455 11240

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RKR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
348 PM MST Fri May 19 2023

AZZ008-037-192315-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
348 PM MST Fri May 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Yavapai County,
northeast of Yarnell, through 415 PM MST...

At 348 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walnut Grove, or 19 miles southwest of Prescott. This storm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Walnut Grove, Wagoner, Yarnell, Peeples Valley and Glen Ilah.

This includes State Route 89 between mile markers 276 and 288.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3436 11269 3435 11249 3418 11247 3421 11278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 008DEG 3KT 3430 11262

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RKR

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