Tornado Warning 11, NWS Grand Forks, ND

244 
WWUS53 KFGF 071939
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
239 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

NDC073-072000-
/O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230707T2000Z/
Ransom ND-
239 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL RANSOM COUNTY...
        
At 239 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Englevale, or 34 miles south of Valley City, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a funnel cloud.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
west central Ransom County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4647 9794 4654 9789 4652 9771 4640 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 296DEG 11KT 4642 9792 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

BH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1231 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

Frontal axis is situated along a line from Griggs county through
Northern Beltrami at this hour. Thunderstorms have started to
develop along the line. Instability is increasing in the SE ND
area, and over the next several hours that looks to spread into
west central MN. Deep layer shear still remains across the
International border behind the front. We will continue to monitor
the continued thunderstorm development this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 939 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are shifting through north
central MN this morning. The main cold front axis is right through
the central Red River Valley towards Northern Beltrami county.
Strongest shear still remains behind the front back toward
southern Manitoba. The main threat area for isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms continues to be in SE ND into West Central MN
for this afternoon and early evening. Main time frame for
initiation will be early afternoon, with the front passing
through by the evening hours.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

Showers and isolated thunderstorms along and north of Hwy 2 are
following expected trends with west to east movement (tied to
LLJ/WAA this morning). The cold front is just now entering the
northern Devils Lake Basin and stable/clearing trends can be
observed. This frontal timing/position will be key on where
thunderstorm redevelopment occurs and if there will be potential
for isolated severe storms this afternoon. At this point the
forecast is on track, and only adjustments I made were to better
capture near term trends this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

-Showers and thunderstorm chances through this evening, with higher
coverage/better chances across southeast ND and west central MN this
afternoon. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon (through 7PM), with hail to 1" and winds to 60 mph the main
threats. The probability for severe thunderstorms is 5%.

-Drier and mild conditions are expected on Saturday (highs in the
70s), and the probability for hazardous weather will be low.

Scattered showers with isolated storms have developed where a LLJ
and elevated WAA axis is in place ahead of an approaching cold
front. This activity is sliding east, however as the front drops
south through the morning into midday general activity/redevelopment
will continue to occur farther south with drier/stable air spreading
into the north. During peak heating destabilization along/ahead of
this front combined with steep low level lapse rates is shown to
result in a narrow corridor of 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE and marginal
DCAPE near 1000 J/KG. Shear along this axis is shown to be weak with
the better bulk shear behind front front in the stable sector. Due
to the short window and narrow axis of instability (and weak shear)
isolated marginally severe updrafts would be possible "if" we
destabilize enough. As highlighted by HREF/NBM there is increasing
consensus on higher shower/thunderstorm chances though during that
period of the afternoon/early evening with 6hr probs for at least
0.01" rainfall now exceeding 80% in our south-southeast and the
probability for lightning activity 70% in the same areas this
afternoon/early evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

-An unsettled pattern with near daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be in place through next week.

-The next best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on
Sunday, and isolated severe thunderstorms may once again be
possible. Hail to 1.5" and wind gusts to 60 mph are the main
threats. The probability for severe thunderstorms is 5%.

The large scale pattern will remain dominated by a mid/upper low
centered over Canada/Hudson Bay region, with persistent northwest
flow over the northern Plains on the western side of this feature.
Period short wave trough passages and associated frontal passages
with keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast nearly
daily. There is strong consensus/clustering regarding this large
scale pattern, however as usual the variability can be seen in the
smaller scale details/timing of the waves. The general trend should
be for temperatures on the lower end of seasonal ranges (slightly
below average), though timing of waves/brief periods of southerly
flow may allow slightly warmer temperatures some days (lower 80s vs
70s).

Regarding Sunday severe threat: Guidance is showing slightly better
consensus on the mid level wave Sunday into Sunday night, with
warmer/moist return flow allowing for a larger portion of our CWA to
see destabilization and potential for ML CAPE in excess of 1500 J/KG
before the front arrives Sunday night. In addition, there is enough
of an increase in mid level flow along/ahead of the front to support
effective shear 30kt+ with top heavy/linear hodographs. Flow will
tend to be parallel to the front, so while supercell threat should be
low (tendency for clustering) there is the potential for a few
organized cells capable of larger hail to 1.5" when activity first
forms during peak heating. Brief heavy rain (PWATs exceeding 1.3")
and some training potential raises the low probability for excessive
runoff, but it will likley take 3-5"/hr outside of poor drainage
areas in cities to cause localized flash flood issues and this is
hard to anticipate at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

DVL will remain VFR throughout the TAF period. Some higher level
SCT clouds may move in this afternoon and last through 05-06z. GFK
and TVF will see BKN clouds, with MVFR ceilings through the 21-23z
time frame as stratocumulus clouds develop behind the main cold
front. The front is situated along a line from Griggs county
through north central MN. Thunderstorms have started to develop
along this line and push ESE. FAR and BJI are the two TAF sites
that may be affected by thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Winds could become erratic around thunderstorms at times. The
front should pass through FAR and BJI by 00-02z. Around the front
ceilings will reach MVFR. After 02z winds will become light and
variable through tomorrow morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Spender
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...DJR
AVIATION...Spender

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
450 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

MNZ001>003-005>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ027>030-038-039-
049-052-053-081000-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-
West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-
Wadena-Grant-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-
Sargent-Richland-
450 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the
evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms possible during the
afternoon. Main threats are hail up to 1 inch and 60 mph winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening. Main threats are hail size up to ping pong balls and 60
mph winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MNZ004-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-054-081000-
Kittson-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-
Nelson-Western Walsh-
450 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible this
morning with lightning as the main threat. The probability for
widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening. Main threats are hail size up to ping pong balls and 60
mph winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.