Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
711 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Thunderstorms are pushing into the Devils Lake Region this
evening, with a few storms approaching the strong to severe
threshold. The window for severe thunderstorms is expected to
extend into the late evening. Current upstream severe reports are
indicating 1 inch hail and winds up to 60 mph, but generally in
the 40 to 50 mph range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Key Messages:

-Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in the Devils
Lake Basin later this afternoon and evening, with up to 60mph winds,
up to quarter size hail, heavy rainfall, and lightning/thunder being
the main threats.

-Continued chances for showers and storms tomorrow afternoon along a
cold front that sweeps through during the afternoon and evening
hours. Some storms could be on the stronger side at times.

Discussion:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move through parts of the
Devils Lake Basin this afternoon affecting Ramsey, Benson, and Eddy
counties. Lingering showers in Pembina, Walsh, and Nelson. These are
remnants of storms that where affecting parts of Canada. These
showers and storms have helped stabilize the air slightly in the
Devils Lake Basin, but instability is still running on the higher
end. New runs of the HRRR/HREF/NAM indicate a delay in initiation of
thunderstorms across north central ND. This is most likely due to
the slow progression of the short wave moving across Canada into our
region and the variability of instability thanks to remaining
showers. Confidence is low on exact timing of thunderstorm
development, but is leaning toward the 22-02 time frame for the
Devils Lake Basin. These chances continue into the overnight hours
for the remainder of eastern ND and the Red River Valley. 0-6km
shear is up to 25kts in the Devils Lake Basin back toward the north
central portions of ND. The axis of instability is roughly around
this region as well, but extends down toward Valley City. Its a
sharp gradient within the Red River Valley of moisture/instability,
with the highest in ND and the lowest in MN. This indicates the
thunderstorms chances mainly being along and west of the Red River.

We have enough moisture and instability to kick off showers and
storms, but just exactly when is key. Initiation during peak daytime
heating will help sustain storms and potentially get them into the
strong to severe category on an isolated basis. The later the storms
develop that harder for them to sustain themselves. Isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms are still possible back toward the Devils
Lake Basin where the instability, timing, moisture, and lift all
line up with one another. Main threats continue to be gusts up to
60mph, hail up to quarters, heavy rainfall, and lightning/thunder.

The main shortwave moves through the area by Friday, with further
chances for thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening around the
cold front passage. Main instability with MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg and
shear up to 20kts will be located right along the front. This helps
kick off some thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Chances for severe are <5% across the area, but we can't rule
out a stray stronger storm bringing small hail or brief gusty winds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Key Messages:

-Cooler and drier conditions for the weekend, with highs in the 70s
to potential lower 80s.

-Ridge aloft retrogrades westward bringing a northerly flow to the
area. Short waves are able to translate around the ridge, but should
remain north of our area over the weekend. Increased fire weather
potential early next week.

-Ridge starts to flatten out middle of the week, with chances for
storms and warmer temperatures increasing.

Discussion:

Cold air advection behind the front Friday helps bring down
temperatures for the weekend. Temperatures return to seasonal
averages for the first time in a while, with highs in the 70s to
lower 80s. Dry air moves in as well, with little to no precipitation
expected through the weekend.

This is thanks to the ridge moving back toward the NW into SW Canada
for the weekend. Flow aloft turns toward the north and the
amplification of the ridge allows for systems to pass just to our
north. Dry air shifts into the region over the weekend and early
next week bringing RH values down into the 20s to 30s during the
afternoon. Winds should remain on the light side, but with low RH
values the chance for heightened fire potential exists Sunday
through Tuesday.

This doesn't last to long as guidance indicates the omega block
across the United States breaking further down. Clusters have a
split flow developing early to mid week, with deep troughing in the
SW United States, and NW flow within the SW part of Canada. As this
happens we increase the chances for systems to move across the area
mid to late next week. The ridge amplification breaks down slightly
and allows our temperatures to start moving back toward above
seasonal average. There is still uncertainty on the strength of the
SW trough and the NW Flow from Canada, with some clusters (40% of
them) showing an amplified ridge and deep SW flow into our area
increasing thunderstorm potentials. Others (60%) show a more zonal
to slight NW flow aloft for our region, and a weaker more neutral
tilt to the trough in the SW United States. This scenario yields
minor chances for the mid to late portions of late week. None the
less, the shift of flow and the breakdown of the block will be
something to watch as thunderstorm chances are there and are worth
monitoring.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 536 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

VFR conditions prevail at all sites this evening. Look for a
chance for thunderstorms at KDVL and possibly KGFK as the evening
progresses. Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible through
late evening, which could lead to abrupt wind shifts and gusts.
This threat of stronger storms is expected to remain primarily
west of the Red River, with the best chances in central North
Dakota and the Devils Lake Basin. Heading into Friday, VFR
conditions prevail, with winds becoming more easterly as a cold
front works into the area.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Lynch
SHORT TERM...Spender
LONG TERM...Spender
AVIATION...Lynch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
212 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054-091915-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Nelson-Griggs-Barnes-Ransom-
Sargent-Western Walsh-
212 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop this late afternoon
and evening. Brief heavy rain and lightning will be threats will
all thunderstorms that develop. Hail to the size of quarters and
damaging wind gusts to 60 mph would be the main threats with
severe storms that develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible again Friday
across the region. The probability for widespread hazardous
weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-
053-091915-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Steele-Traill-Cass-Richland-
212 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, with the best
chances during the late afternoon and evening west of the Red
River Valley. A few strong storms can't be ruled out along the Red
River Valley. Lighting, brief heavy rain, and wind gusts to 50
mph would be the main threats if they develop. The probability for
severe thunderstorms is less than 5 percent.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible again Friday
across the region. The probability for widespread hazardous
weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
408 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

NDZ038-082145-
Barnes ND-
408 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Barnes
County through 445 PM CDT...

At 408 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Leal, or 19 miles northwest of Valley City, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Leal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4707 9846 4714 9829 4695 9813 4694 9844
      4698 9844 4698 9845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 342DEG 17KT 4705 9839

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
727 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

NDZ014-015-090045-
Benson ND-Ramsey ND-
727 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Benson
and south central Ramsey Counties through 745 PM CDT...

At 727 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Devils Lake, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Devils Lake, Camp Grafton, Lakewood Park and St Michael.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

If on or near Devils Lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4817 9887 4817 9869 4797 9865 4799 9898
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 000DEG 16KT 4810 9878

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kent