Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
304 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

Activity remains isolated on the eastern edge of the instability
within the WAA regime across the MN lakes na trees area. This is
expected to slowly push east this afternoon. Attention in the near
term will be if and where convection can develop in ND. Most
likely along the wind shift line extending from near Cooperstown
towards Grand Forks south of which temps near 90F and 70 dew pts
supporting ample instability. With the effective 0 to 6km shear
in the 30 to 40kt range and ML CAPE around 3000J/kg initial storm
mode should be supercellular to multicellular, creating hail
potential to golfball size and winds to 60mph.

Another round of storms to monitor will be to the west and if a
MCS or linear system develop which could track to the east this
evening into the overnight. This would bring the threat of 60mph
winds should this occur as the convection moves into eastern ND
from the west.

Tomorrow will be a touch cooler as shower chances linger into the
morning hours with drier conditions into the afternoon and
evening. Highs in the mid to upper 80s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

Key Messages:

-Seasonal Temperatures to end the week and into the weekend

-Precip chances hinge on thunderstorm activity and timing

Typical late summer pattern with weak forcing and as a result low
predictability exist with precip timing, coverage and placement
within the extended time frame. Ensemble guidance does suggest
potential for a wave and thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday
with rain potential up to 50%. There's a 50-60% chance for
greater than 0.1 inch rainfall, and 30-40% chance for greater than
0.25 inch rainfall.

Behind the wave NW flow returns and temps will be cooler with
highs in the 70s Sun and Mon vs 80s Thur - Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

Another round of thunder is moving near BJI early this afternoon.
Another convection continues to be difficult in discerning if and
where new activity will develop this afternoon and evening. With
drier air filtering in on north winds in DVL and soon to be GFK
went ahead and removed the thunder mention with chances 30 percent
or less. Did keep the mention at FAR. More likely scenario for
thunder will evolve tonight with activity in the west spreading
east southeast.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
155 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-021900-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
155 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across
the region in the afternoon and evening hours. Threats this
afternoon would be hail up to golf balls within discrete
thunderstorms. In the evening and overnight, storms threats change
to hail up to quarters and winds up to 70mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Wednesday theres a slight chance for thunderstorms for NW MN. The
main threat for these storms if they develop is lightning. The
probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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