Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
310 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

Overview:

-Scattered rain and thunder chances will continue through early
 evening. A few may be strong or severe with downburst winds being
 the primary threat.

-Rinse and repeat forecast anticipated for Sunday.

This afternoon and tonight...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
ongoing this afternoon across portions of North GA. A few strong to
severe thunderstorms have already been noted this afternoon and
certainly not out of the realm of the possibility through the early
evening hours. Strong downburst winds will be the main threat
though, with some of the strong cores some small hail will also be a
possibility with any storms. Storms thus far have largely been slow
moving and nearly stationary. Latest WPC analysis has a warm front
depicted across North GA into the Carolinas, this feature
interacting with another low that is forecast to dip down from TN
may act to enhance precip thus localized flooding will be a growing
concern through the evening particularly across northeast GA.
Activity may linger after sunset but will largely be on the
downward trend. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the
mid-60s.

Sunday...A similar forecast can be expected tomorrow for north and
central GA. The weather setup will largely be unchanged --- upper
troughing over the southeast and frontal boundary draped across the
forecast area. This combined with peak heating will result in more
scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. Forecast
high temperatures will be in the 80s with low temperatures in the
60s.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

Key Messages:

- Slight chance to chance for showers and storms mainly during the
afternoon across portions of the CWA on Monday and much of the CWA
on Tuesday

- Cold front passage on Wednesday will bring slight chance to chance
for showers and storms followed by dry conditions and cooler,
seasonable temperatures for Thursday and Friday

Forecast:

Weak upper-level troughing, marginal instability, and adequate
moisture will support slight chance to chance PoPs primarily across
portions of central GA and the northeast GA mountains on Monday and
across much of the CWA on Tuesday. Widespread severe weather is not
expected given the progged marginal environment.

A cold front will push through the CWA on Wednesday as a potent
upper-level trough pivots across the Great Lakes region, supporting
another day of slight chance to chance PoPs across much of the CWA.
Widespread severe weather is not expected. A drier, cooler
continental air mass will settle in behind the front on Thursday and
Friday with highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s and lows in the mid-
50s to mid-60s -- up to 5 degrees below normal.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

Mixed bag of SCT/BKN cigs across the area this afternoon. SCT tsra
has already begun popping up across the ATL metro this afternoon
thus bumped up the TEMPO groups to reflect current radar trends.
TSRA activity should start to taper off after 00z. Lower
cigs/vsbys possible with any tsra activity. Winds may flip flop
from the west to east side thanks to the storms but largely
expecting winds to remain on the east side. Lower cigs/vsbys after
08z and continuing into Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence on all elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  82  64  87 /  50  40  20  10
Atlanta         67  84  66  89 /  30  30  20  10
Blairsville     60  77  59  81 /  40  60  20  20
Cartersville    64  84  64  88 /  30  40  10  10
Columbus        68  90  69  93 /  20  20  10  20
Gainesville     66  81  64  86 /  60  40  20  10
Macon           67  86  68  90 /  30  20  20  20
Rome            64  86  64  89 /  20  30  10  10
Peachtree City  64  86  64  89 /  20  30  10  10
Vidalia         69  88  70  90 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
313 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
313 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing through early evening. A
couple of storms could produce severe downburst winds and small
hail. Locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding will
be a growing concern particularly across northeast Georgia as
storms will be slow moving or nearly stationary.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible in the
region Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Severe weather
is not anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

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