Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
410 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...New Update for Expanded Flood Watch...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 409 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Have expanded the Flood Watch another row of counties north and
west of the previous watch area to account for a slightly more
west axis of heaviest rainfall. No other changes at this time,
although updates will be ongoing through the afternoon.

31/LGB

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Main Forecast Points:

-Scattered to widespread storms expected through the evening today
 (potentially lingering overnight) with locally heavy rainfall and
 isolated damaging wind gusts with any storms that form this
 afternoon.

-'Cooling' trend continues as a result of rain chances and cloud
 cover.

-Slight westward shift in the track of Hurricane Idalia.

Currently...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon
across portions of south-central GA. The stationary boundary that
was bisecting the forecast area has since lifted back northward.
Storms are expected to persist through the evening though may
linger into the overnight hours. With no changes to the juicy
environment, locally heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts will
the primary hazards with any storms that develop today (similar to
yesterday). SBCAPE values are 3000-4000 J/kg, DCAPE values are
700-900 J/kg and PWATs are well over 2"...so certainly plenty of
fuel for storms to work with. Coverage of showers and storms may
be slightly less overnight but more rain will be on the way as we
start to feel the impacts from the outer rainbands of Hurricane
Idalia overnight.

Latest NHC Advisory has Hurricane Idalia making landfall along the
coastline of "Big Bend" area of Florida around sunrise Wednesday
morning. As this occurs, outer banding will begin to approach
portions of Middle Georgia overnight tonight and early tomorrow
(Wednesday) morning. Per this latest advisory, there was a slight
westward shift in the track of Hurricane Idalia thus impacts from
winds and heavy rain have been expanded further north and west
into the forecast area, encompassing more of east- central
Georgia. After making landfall, Idalia will steadily move into
southeast Georgia by the afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday.
With the track of Hurricane Idalia trending slightly more
westward, elected to expand the Flood Watch (again) another tier
of counties north and westward. The HREF LPMM (ensemble
probability mean) was also a player in this decision and has done
well with the predictability in QPF totals. Forecast storm total
rainfall has also increased to now be 4 to 8 inches across
southeast Georgia with pockets of rainfall up to 10" possible.

Sustained winds across portions of southeast Georgia are forecast
to range from 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 45 mph from late
Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. A Tropical Storm
Warning is now in effect for Toombs, Montgomery, Wheeler,
Telfair, Dodge, Wilcox, and Crisp counties. In addition, a
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued to the north for Emanuel,
Treutlen, Laurens, Johnson, Bleckley, Pulaski, and Dooly counties.
A tornado threat will also exist within the rainbands as Idalia
moves onshore and approaches our area. As we have seen over the
past 24-48 hrs, any adjustment of the track further to the west
may increase potential impacts for portions of Middle Georgia.
Changes may be forthcoming following the next NHC Advisory.

Thanks to cloud cover and rainfall temperatures tomorrow will be
noticeably cooler...yay. Highs forecast to be in the 70s to low
80s. Low temperatures forecast to be in the 60s.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

After Hurricane Idalia has moved out of the area, we return to a
more seasonal pattern with temperatures running a few degrees below
normal in the mid to low 80s. As the remnants of Idalia stalls off
the coast, it will filter dry air down the spine of the Appalachians
keeping the CWA dry and on the cooler side for the entire extended
forecast. Overnight lows will be in the mid to low 60s and should be
generally very pleasant.

Winds will remain out of the NE through the forecast period with
some gusty winds up to 15kts. There is some significant deviation in
the long term models. Idalia stalls this weekend just off the
Carolina coast and what it does will ultimately dictate the course
of the forecast for early next week (and luckily for me that's just
out of the longer term forecast range).

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Cigs have been a little slower to scatter out today with a mixed
bag of MVFR to low VFR. Lower VFR cigs expected through the
afternoon with MVFR cigs associated with any storms that develop.
Scattered -shra/-tsra has already begun to develop and activity
will likely persist until 05-06z. TEMPOs may need to be extended.
Low cigs, likely IFR, expected again overnight beginning around
06-07z Wednesday. Winds are expected to remain on the east side
through the period though this afternoon taking a slightly more SE
component.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence on cigs overnight and shra/tsra timing.
High confidence all other elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  77  67  81 /  70  90  50  30
Atlanta         72  79  66  85 /  70  90  30  20
Blairsville     64  78  59  80 /  50  70  30  30
Cartersville    69  82  63  84 /  60  70  30  20
Columbus        73  80  69  89 /  70  80  30  30
Gainesville     70  79  66  83 /  70  80  40  30
Macon           72  77  69  85 /  70  90  60  20
Rome            70  84  64  87 /  50  60  20  20
Peachtree City  70  79  64  85 /  70  80  30  20
Vidalia         74  79  71  83 /  60 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night
for GAZ039-050-051-059>062-071>076-080>086-091>098-103>113.

Tropical Storm Watch for GAZ085-086-096>098-105-107.

Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ106-108>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1201 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-301615-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1201 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorm activity is expected to redevelop
this afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall will remain the
primary concern with localized flash flooding possible, especially
in north Georgia. A few storms may produce strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday,
particularly across the southeastern half of the area as Hurricane
Idalia approaches southeast Georgia. The heaviest rainfall totals
associated with this system will be across far southeastern
portions of the area where as much as 3 to 6 inches of rainfall
with locally higher amounts is possible which will lead to
increased flooding potential. Additionally, wind gusts up to 45
mph are possible in far southeastern portions of the area as
Idalia approaches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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