Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
126 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Another very hot day is likely today and with minimal thunderstorm
chances this afternoon we may struggle to find any relief to the
heat indices that may soar above 110 for a large portion of the
CWA. As a result we have pulled the Excessive Heat Warning north to
include the metro counties. A Heat advisory remains in effect for NW
Georgia, while the highest elevations of NE Georgia are spared from
the worst of the heat.

Overnight lows will fall to the mid 70s which is gross in itself
however, the end of a hot and stormy trend is coming to a
(temporary) end. Or at least that end is finally in sight. A front
on Tuesday afternoon will push into the area. There isn't much to
talk about in the way of precip with this front for northern Georgia
but it sets up a stalled boundary for increased rain chances along
south and central GA south and east of a line from Columbus to Macon
on Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures north of the line will be closer
to average for this time of year with Tuesday's highs in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

High temps south and east of the front will allow for a build up of
instability Tuesday afternoon and as the front slowly drags toward
the east, a few storms may become strong to severe especially across
the far SE parts of the CWA. With a moisture loaded atmosphere, some
areas could see excess of an inch of rain over a short period of
time; more if the storms train along the boundary creating the
potential for some localized flash flooding.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

As the extended period begins, an amplified upper level pattern will
be in place across the majority of the CONUS, with a trough
extending from the northern Great Lakes towards the central Gulf
Coast, and a persistent ridge over the western half of the country.
A surface low associated with the trough will extend a cold front
southward, which will be in the process of pushing into central
Georgia on Tuesday night. As the front continues to move southward
through the area through the overnight hours, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the frontal
boundary. Some storms ahead of the front could become strong,
capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning. Portions of
east-central Georgia are anticipated to see rainfall amounts of 1-
1.5 inches through the overnight hours, with locally higher amounts
associated with stronger storms that occur. Significantly drier air
will meanwhile build in behind the front, dropping dewpoints into
the upper 50s and low 60s and precipitable water values to between
0.6-0.8 inches. Temperatures will also be noticeably cooler on
Wednesday morning, with lows dropping into the low to mid 60s in
north Georgia (and even some 50s in the higher elevations).

The surface front is expected to stall in southeast Georgia on
Wednesday morning and linger through much of the remainder of the
work week. With dry air and ample sunshine, high temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 80s in north Georgia and in the upper 80s to
low 90s in central Georgia on Wednesday. However, with lower
dewpoints, we are not expected to approach Heat Advisory thresholds.
Precipitation chances Wednesday through Friday will be minimal
within the dry airmass to the north of the frontal boundary.
However, the front itself will provide a focus for scattered,
diurnally driven convection each afternoon from Wednesday through
Friday, which will keep slight chance to low-end chance PoPs in east-
central Georgia each day. Temperatures will undergo a gradual
warming trend through the end of the week, with highs increasing by
a couple of degrees each day. On Friday, the aforementioned trough
over the eastern CONUS will begin to lift away as upper level
ridging begins to build into the Southern Plains from the west. This
will cut off the persistent northwesterly upper level flow regime,
allowing for the development of a more typical summertime Bermuda
ridge to develop. As a result, low level moisture and PoPs will
begin to increase once again this weekend.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Highest chance of
sct shra/tsra this afternoon are at MCN/CSG. Isolated convection
is possible near ATL/AHN area sites as well, but confidence is too
low for tempo attm. Additional iso to sct shra/tsra are expected
ahead of an incoming cold front Tuesday afternoon with highest
coverage likely south of ATL toward MCN/CSG. Winds will remain W
to NW with speeds as high as 10 kts during the afternoon, and
generally 3-6 kts overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on shra/tsra coverage.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  91  65  88 /  10  40  30  10
Atlanta         75  90  65  88 /  10  30  20   0
Blairsville     67  82  57  82 /  30  30  10   0
Cartersville    72  87  62  86 /  20  30  10   0
Columbus        76  96  70  92 /  20  50  40  10
Gainesville     75  88  64  86 /  20  40  10   0
Macon           75  96  69  90 /  20  60  50  20
Rome            74  87  62  86 /  20  30  10   0
Peachtree City  73  92  63  88 /  20  40  20   0
Vidalia         76  94  73  90 /  20  70  60  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>005-011-012-
019>025-035.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ027-
030>034-036>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1151 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

GAZ027-030>034-036>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113-
151600-
Baldwin-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Chattahoochee-Clarke-Clayton-
Cobb-Coweta-Crawford-Crisp-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fayette-Glascock-Greene-Gwinnett-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-
Henry-Houston-Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Muscogee-
Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-Pike-Polk-
Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-Spalding-Stewart-
Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-Treutlen-Troup-
Twiggs-Upson-Walton-Warren-Washington-Webster-Wheeler-Wilcox-
Wilkes-Wilkinson-
1151 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

An Excessive Heat Warning remains in place through 8 PM today.
Heat index values of 110 degrees or more are expected.
Appropriate precautions should be taken to avoid heat related
illnesses. Including but not limited to drinking plenty of
fluids, staying in an air-conditioned room, staying out of the
sun, and checking up on relatives and neighbors. If possible
reschedule strenuous outdoor activities to the early morning or
late evening hours.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the the region between 2
PM and midnight. The storms may produce gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Heat index values of 104 to 112 may occur in central and south
Georgia Tuesday. Additional heat related advisories and/or
warnings may be issued. Take extra precautions and drink plenty of
fluids if you plan to spend time outside.

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the region Tuesday afternoon
and evening. A couple of storms may be severe with damaging winds
being the primary hazard. Frequent lightning and locally heavy
rainfall may also occur.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon and evening between Wednesday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

GAZ001>005-011-012-019>025-035-151600-
Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Catoosa-Chattooga-Cherokee-Dade-Floyd-Forsyth-
Gordon-Hall-Jackson-Murray-Walker-Whitfield-
1151 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Georgia...northeast Georgia AND northwest Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Heat Advisory remains in place through 8 PM today. Heat index
values of 105 to 109 degrees are expected. Appropriate
precautions should be taken to avoid heat related illnesses.
Including but not limited to drinking plenty of fluids, staying in
an air-conditioned room, staying out of the sun, and checking up
on relatives and neighbors. Consider rescheduling strenuous
outdoor activities to the early morning or late evening hours.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the the region today and
tonight. An isolated severe storm with damaging winds is possible.
The storms may also produce frequent lightning and locally heavy
rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect the region through
2 PM Tuesday. Any thunderstorms may produce gusty winds, frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

GAZ006>009-013>016-151600-
Dawson-Fannin-Gilmer-Lumpkin-Pickens-Towns-Union-White-
1151 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Georgia AND northeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the the region today and
tonight. An isolated severe storm with damaging winds is possible.
The storms may also produce frequent lightning and locally heavy
rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect the region through
2 PM Tuesday. Any thunderstorms may produce gusty winds, frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

Isolated thunderstorms may occur next weekend or early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
213 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

GAZ002>004-011-141900-
Chattooga GA-Whitfield GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-
213 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Catoosa, southwestern Whitfield, southeastern Walker and northeastern
Chattooga Counties through 300 PM EDT...

At 213 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Naomi, or near
Lafayette, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, La Fayette, Naomi, Mill Creek, Linwood, Subligna, Suttles
Mill, and Villanow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8535 3481 8518 3472 8499 3460 8508
      3455 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 311DEG 9KT 3472 8519

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH