Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
321 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)

MCV that came through with an MCS this morning has moved east of the
CWA this afternoon. 500mb analysis shows another little shortwave
moving in from east central AL. This feature will continue to help
fire showers and thunderstorms across central and south central
portions of the CWA through this evening.  Strong storms are likely,
with a few severe storms possible, mainly across SW portions of the
CWA. The primary severe weather hazard would be damaging wind gusts.
Localized flooding is also possible...especially across west central
GA which has received 1"- 2" of rainfall already today.

The shortwave moving in from east central AL is interacting with a
weak frontal boundary situated just south of the Interstate 20
corridor. This boundary, and the NW flow aloft, are progged to go
anywhere through the short term period of the forecast. The hi- res
models continue to struggle with the anomalous NW flow aloft and
will base the pops this afternoon on current radar trends.

The forecast is a little bit more nebulous for tomorrow. Some of the
hi-res models are picking up on a wave/MCS moving in from the north
tomorrow afternoon. Since all models have trouble resolving these
MCS systems, have kept the pops limited to chance. However, the HRRR
did pretty good with the timing of this mornings MCS/MCV at this
time yesterday. It did struggle a bit with coverage though.

Temps are expected to be slightly above normal for Sunday with
continued high dewpoints. Have gone ahead and issued a Heat Advisory
for portions of the CWA. Some areas around Macon will have to be
watched for an Excessive Heat Warning if dewpoints are higher than
currently forecast.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)

Main Forecast Points:

-Afternoon showers and storms expected through much of the extended
forecast with coverage and location tied to any remnant boundaries
and timing of weak mid-level disturbances.

-Heat returns this weekend and will stick around through early next
week. Forecast heat indices may warrant heat headlines particularly
for areas along and south of I-2O at the start of the long term.
Have issued an Excessive Heat Watch for portions of central and
south GA for Monday afternoon.

By Sunday, much of the southern U.S. will largely remain situated
beneath a flattened 500mb ridge with high pressure across the
southeast at the surface. As for what this means for us in
Georgia...heat and lower coverage of storms at least for the first
half of the long term. Warm temperatures and high dewpoints (mid to
upper 70s) will result in heat indices likely approaching excessive
heat warning criteria across much of south-central GA both Sunday
and Monday. Please make sure you're taking care of yourself and
loved ones if you are partaking in any outdoor activities.

Any weak disturbances that make it through the mid-level flow may
aid in higher coverage of storms though largely expecting diurnal
storms (more typical of this time of year) through a good portion of
the period. Guidance remains consistent in depicting a more notable
trough that will translate across the Great Lakes Regions during the
Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Presently, the highest coverage of showers
and storms during the long term looks to be associated with this
system. The frontal boundary associated with this feature may
provide us with some much needed relief in the way of drier air
(lower PWs and dewpoints) slated to move in after the system moves
through. Similarly, this will push higher rain chances further south
and east.

07&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Heavier SHRA/TSRA should slide just to the south of ATL this
afternoon. Some patchy MVFR fog is possible overnight. Models are
not currently progging bkn IFR cigs at ATL overnight, but there is
some potential. Will keep SCT for now. Winds should remain on the
west side, but probably go light/vrb for a time overnight. Hi-res
models are struggling with additional precip for tomorrow...could
be more diurnal in nature but another wave could come through in
the mid/late afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  92  73  95 /  10  30  30  20
Atlanta         73  92  74  96 /   0  30  30  20
Blairsville     65  86  68  88 /   0  30  20  40
Cartersville    71  91  71  94 /   0  30  30  20
Columbus        74  95  76  99 /  10  30  30  20
Gainesville     70  90  73  94 /   0  30  20  30
Macon           73  95  75  98 /  10  20  30  20
Rome            72  91  73  95 /   0  30  30  30
Peachtree City  71  93  72  97 /  10  30  30  20
Vidalia         73  95  76  97 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ039-049>051-
058>062-069>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for GAZ039-049>051-058>062-069>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
337 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121045-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
337 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible once again in the
afternoon and early evening with highest chances south of I-20. An
isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. Damaging wind gusts
will be the primary severe weather hazard. Localized flooding will
also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Periods of thunderstorm activity will continue through next
Thursday. The highest storm chances will occur during the
afternoon and evening hours each day.

A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of central and
southern Georgia for Saturday, mainly along and south of a line
from Washington to Madison to Pine Mountain. Heat Index values
around 105 degrees are likely. Some areas near Macon could
approach Excessive Heat Warning criteria.

An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for portions of central
and southern Georgia for Sunday, mainly along and south of a line
from Washington to Madison to Pine Mountain. Heat Index values
around 110 degrees are possible.

Heat Index values will remain high for portions of central and
southern Georgia through early next week. Additional Advisories
and/or Warnings may be needed. Take extra precautions and drink
plenty of fluids if you plan to spend time outside this weekend or
early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
442 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023

GAZ104>106-112115-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Sumter GA-
442 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Dooly,
southeastern Sumter and northwestern Crisp Counties through 515 PM
EDT...

At 442 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Scrutchins, or 11 miles
south of Americus, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Americus, Leslie, De Soto, Desoto, Cobb, Sumter, Lamar, Fort Early,
Georgia Veterans Memorial St Pk, Maddox, and Huntington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central and west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3186 8394 3186 8393 3190 8393 3191 8392
      3191 8428 3205 8428 3206 8386 3185 8391
      3185 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 288DEG 8KT 3192 8416

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SM