Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

500mb pattern has turned more zonal than in previous days. A strong
mid level disturbance continues to move east within the flow. A
broad area of showers and thunderstorms are associated with this
feature.

A weak frontal boundary remains situated across south central
portions of the CWA this afternoon. There is plenty of available
instability, moisture and forcing for thunderstorms mainly south of
Columbus to Macon. Regional radar shows scattered showers and
thunderstorms beginning to develop within the clear air to the south
of the complex moving east across AL. Mesoanalysis shows CAPES
around 2500-4000 J/kg across the southern CWA with DCAPES around
1400 J/kg. Mid level lapse rates are steepest across northern GA,
but values are still 6-6.5 C/km across the south. The primary severe
thunderstorm hazard continues to be damaging wind gusts. A few hail
reports are possible along with locally heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning. The complex moving along I-20 may end up slightly
diminishing as it moves eastward.

Convection should mostly be diurnal in nature, but a few storms
could linger until midnight or so feeding off of any lingering
instability.

The weak frontal boundary should begin lifting northward tomorrow
while the mid level flow turns more NW again. The hi res models are
keeping most of tomorrow fairly quiet, with a wave moving SE in the
flow during the evening hours. Confidence is pretty low on this
solution and have added isold/sct pops for much of the afternoon.
The models look to be focusing convection along the old front as a
wave comes across during the late evening/overnight hours as a wave
moves in from the NW. The highest pops may end up being a little
further south than currently indicated depending upon where the old
front is situated. Also, would not be surprised to see the risk for
strong/severe storms be pushed a little further south.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

This forecast is going to feel a bit like groundhog day. We continue
to sit in a NW flow pattern and unfortunately, it doesn't look like
that pattern will be changing anytime soon. The area will sit with
ridging to our west and troughing just barely to our east through at
least the next 7 days. This will ultimately result in at the bare
minimum rain chances every day mainly in the afternoon and evening.

Looking at Thursday, this is shaping out to be another day where we
see a potentially higher impact band of storms affect the CWA. We
will be able to get a better look at this system once CAMS start to
come in overnight, but for now looking at MUCAPE values of 2500-3000
J/kg. In addition to this we are seeing strong winds aloft
(35-40kt at 850 and 60-65 kt at 500 mb) which will be the forcing
necessary to push a disturbance through. The main threat would
likely be damaging wind gusts at this time, and it will not be out
of the realm of possibility to see higher gusts even outside of
the storms. SPC currently has outlined our area in a MArginal for
this time period but it is quite possible we could see an upgrade
in the coming days.

Looking past Thursday, it gets a little harder to pick out which
wave will be more impactful than the next, but overall we are
looking at these waves to bring gusty winds with the storms they
produce.

Another point to highlight is the increased heat risk over the next
7 days. Apparent Ts are currently in the 105-112 range for a
majority of the days in the long term forecast (with the caveat
these temps could be slightly overinflated). Either way, take into
account the heat whenever outside this weekend and into next week!

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Thunderstorm complex over central AL will continue east. The hi-
res models have not had a good handle on the evolution of this
system. Shra/tsra should continue to move due east this afternoon.
Added a tempo group for 20-24. Not much expected overnight. Winds
will remain on the west side.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  89  72  90 /  40  20  40  60
Atlanta         69  89  74  93 /  60  40  40  60
Blairsville     61  84  68  80 /  10  40  60  80
Cartersville    67  87  72  90 /  10  50  50  70
Columbus        72  91  75  95 /  30  50  30  30
Gainesville     67  87  72  88 /  20  30  50  70
Macon           72  91  75  95 /  70  40  30  40
Rome            67  87  73  89 /  10  50  50  80
Peachtree City  67  89  73  93 /  60  40  30  50
Vidalia         73  92  76  95 /  60  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ086-090>093-
095>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
313 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091615-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
313 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to develop and
move across portions of central Georgia through early this evening.
Some of these storms will be strong to severe, capable of producing
winds of 40 to 60 mph, with isolated stronger gusts near 70 mph.
This will likely result in areas of downed trees and powerlines.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8PM for much of central
Georgia between, as heat indices of 105 to 109 degrees will exist,
increasing the risk of heat related illnesses.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of
north Georgia on Wednesday. Damaging winds will continue to be the
primary hazard, along with heavy rain and frequent lightning.

A stronger system is expected to affect the area Thursday with a
continued threat of strong to severe storms. Periods of thunderstorm
activity will continue through next Sunday. The highest storm
chances will occur during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
438 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ENE Atwater           32.98N 84.34W
08/08/2023                   Upson              GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree blocking both lanes of Thompson Rd.

&&

SN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
443 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

GAZ095-105-107-082115-
Dooly GA-Houston GA-Pulaski GA-
443 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Pulaski,
northeastern Dooly and southeastern Houston Counties through 515 PM
EDT...

At 442 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Mock Springs, or 8
miles southwest of Hawkinsville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Hawkinsville, Hayneville, Browndale, Wallace, Grovania, Mobley
Crossing, Hartford, Mock Springs, Pulaski State Prison, Klondike,
Ocmulgee Banks, and Finleyson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3213 8336 3213 8341 3212 8342 3213 8344
      3212 8344 3215 8373 3240 8368 3238 8347
      3227 8335 3225 8337 3219 8331 3211 8334
      3211 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 273DEG 23KT 3225 8361

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
455 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ENE Atwater           32.98N 84.34W
08/08/2023                   Upson              GA   Amateur Radio

            A tree was reported down across Thompson Rd.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

GAZ097-109>111-082130-
Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Laurens GA-Dodge GA-
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Laurens, central Dodge, northeastern Telfair and Wheeler Counties
through 530 PM EDT...

At 500 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Chauncey, or 8 miles
southeast of Eastman, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
McRae, Eastman, Alamo, Helena, Milan, Scotland, Chauncey, Towns,
Spring Hill, Plainfield, Cedar Grove, Jay Bird Springs, Five Points,
Achord, Little Ocmulgee State Park, Godwinsville, and Jordan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3207 8321 3229 8311 3229 8276 3213 8266
      3201 8264 3196 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 279DEG 32KT 3209 8311

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
520 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

GAZ093-104-105-082145-
Macon GA-Dooly GA-Sumter GA-
520 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Macon, northwestern
Dooly and northeastern Sumter Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 520 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Hicks to Bartlett to Andersonville, and moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Oglethorpe, Montezuma, Byromville, Andersonville, Lilly, Dooling,
Whitewater State Park, Fountainville, Flint River Wma, Pennington,
Andersonville National Historic, Clearview, Winchester, and Bartlett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central and west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8417 3231 8419 3245 8410 3242 8384
      3238 8384 3238 8386 3236 8386 3236 8385
      3229 8385 3229 8382 3212 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 273DEG 25KT 3246 8404 3231 8412 3217 8414

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
521 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

GAZ105>109-082145-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Wilcox GA-Dodge GA-Pulaski GA-
521 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central Dodge,
southern Pulaski, Wilcox, southeastern Dooly and Crisp Counties
through 545 PM EDT...

At 521 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Ocmulgee Banks to near Tippettville to near Arabi, and
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Cordele, Eastman, Vienna, Rochelle, Arabi, Pineview, Pitts, Union,
Richwood, Seville, Ocmulgee Banks, Finleyson, Pleasant View,
Tippettville, Raines, Double Run, Wenona, Godwinsville, East Crisp,
and Fort Early.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central and west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3183 8384 3182 8385 3184 8386 3185 8394
      3186 8393 3188 8393 3193 8392 3199 8395
      3203 8395 3215 8367 3215 8349 3227 8336
      3218 8305 3208 8313 3201 8333 3185 8346
      3185 8361 3180 8361 3180 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 269DEG 26KT 3215 8338 3207 8364 3185 8380

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH