Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
837 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

A line of showers and thunderstorms south of Macon continues to
progress southward through central Georgia. Storms embedded within
the line will be capable of producing gusty damaging winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains
in effect for a few rows of our southern most counties as the threat
for severe weather will continue for the next couple of hours.

PoP forecast has been updated to reflect the eastward trend of
shower and thunderstorm activity in recent model guidance. Expect to
see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for most of the
forecast area through the overnight hours and persisting through
Friday. Radar estimates suggest that 1 to 2.5 inches have fallen
primarily over areas across eastern Georgia today. Localized flash
flooding will need to be monitored closely throughout the next 24
hours especially if any storms begin to train over areas that
received heavy rainfall earlier today. The short term forecast
otherwise remains largely on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently over N GA and is
expected to continue into the Atlanta metro in the next few hours.
Instability and shear looks to be on track with what the previous
forecast mentioned with PWATs still projected in the 2" range which
is above normal for this time of year. What this means is there will
be efficient rainfall producers in any areas that the storms affect.
In addition to the efficient rainfall producers this line of storms
is expected to produce damaging wind gusts in areas of higher DCAPe
which looks to be eastern GA.

Looking into tonight into tomorrow another round of showers and
thunderstorms look to fire up around 07z over the metro into central
GA and then continuing on into the early morning hours. At the
moment, models are indicating showers will stick around the columbus
area for much of tomorrow but that is highly dependent on what
happens today. Other portions of North and central GA look to dry
out for tomorrow afternoon.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

No major changes made in the extended periods. Continued W to NWLY
Mid-Level flow from the short term will keep North and Central GA in
a very moist pattern through the middle of next week. Significant
moisture increasing across the state will keep PWATs near and over
2.0" through at least Tuesday. Multiple rounds of shortwaves riding
the ridge will bring mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms to the region with some potential for severe storms
and possible flooding. Given the potential for CAPE values over 2000
J/Kg, particularly Saturday, thunderstorms may be accompanied by
gusty/damaging winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Also,
given the elevated PWATs, isolated and localized flooding may occur,
especially with thunderstorm training along the periphery of the
ridge. 5 day QPF totals are in the 2" to 3.5" range across the
entire state, so we definitely have the potential to see quite a bit
of precipitation through Tuesday.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 749 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

Cigs/vsbys expected to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR at all TAF sites
overnight returning to VFR at some locations tomorrow afternoon.
Difficult forecast with isolated/scattered SHRA/TSRA throughout
TAF cycle as latest model guidance has trended towards an eastward
shift in activity through tomorrow afternoon. SW winds will
transition to more NW by the end of the TAF cycle and increase
from 5KT or less to 10KT late tomorrow morning.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on SHRA/TSRA and MVFR/IFR cig timing. High
confidence on remaining elements.

KAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  88  71  89 /  60  30  30  30
Atlanta         72  88  72  92 /  60  50  20  30
Blairsville     66  81  64  86 /  50  40  20  30
Cartersville    70  87  69  91 /  50  50  20  30
Columbus        74  91  74  93 / 100  70  40  50
Gainesville     70  87  71  89 /  50  40  20  30
Macon           73  90  72  91 / 100  50  30  40
Rome            71  87  70  92 /  50  60  20  30
Peachtree City  70  88  70  91 /  60  50  30  30
Vidalia         73  89  74  89 /  70  70  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...KAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
628 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-042230-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
628 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A line of thunderstorms will move through Central Georgia this
evening. Additional isolated to scattered convctive activity will
be possible areawide through the overnight hours. Some storms may
be severe with damaging winds, frequent lightning, and very heavy
rainfall. One or two brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out for west
central Georgia. Localized flash flooding is also possible with
extended periods of heavy rainfall and training thunderstorms
overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day through Wednesday,
mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms may become
strong to severe with damaging winds, frequent lightning, heavy
rainfall and localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
803 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

GAZ090>092-102>104-040030-
Schley GA-Chattahoochee GA-Stewart GA-Sumter GA-Marion GA-Webster GA-
803 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Marion,
southeastern Chattahoochee, northeastern Stewart, Webster, Schley and
northwestern Sumter Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 802 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Draneville, or near
Buena Vista, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Americus, Buena Vista, Ellaville, Preston, Richland, Plains, Putnam,
Seminole, Kimbrough, La Crosse, Brooklyn, Renfroe, Draneville, Manta,
Zellobee, Friendship, Doyle, Church Hill, Dumas, and Walls Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3228 8479 3239 8440 3215 8418 3203 8431
      3199 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 320DEG 38KT 3226 8453

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
824 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Lagrange            33.05N 85.03W
08/03/2023                   Troup              GA   Emergency Mngr

            Several trees and powerlines down around the
            city of LaGrange....Ridley/Mitchell Ave.,
            Keener/Hill St., Cherry/Douglas St.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
829 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

GAZ096-105>109-040115-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Wilcox GA-Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-Pulaski GA-
829 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Dodge,
Pulaski, Wilcox, Dooly, south central Bleckley and Crisp Counties
through 915 PM EDT...

At 829 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Union to near Drayton, and moving southeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Cordele, Hawkinsville, Vienna, Abbeville, Unadilla, Rochelle, Arabi,
Byromville, Pineview, Pinehurst, Rhine, Pitts, Lilly, Dooling, Union,
Richwood, Mock Springs, Seville, Ocmulgee Banks, and Finleyson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central and west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3219 8402 3220 8402 3222 8399 3232 8329
      3202 8319 3192 8318 3190 8321 3188 8320
      3187 8318 3185 8318 3184 8323 3185 8361
      3183 8361 3183 8381
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 318DEG 38KT 3216 8325 3211 8396

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
848 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

GAZ086-097-109>113-040130-
Toombs GA-Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Emanuel GA-Montgomery GA-Laurens GA-
Dodge GA-
848 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Laurens,
Toombs, south central Emanuel, southeastern Dodge, Telfair, Wheeler
and Montgomery Counties through 930 PM EDT...

At 848 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Zaidee to near Glenwood to near Five Points, and
moving south at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
McRae, Eastman, Lyons, Alamo, Mount Vernon, Vidalia, Helena, Lumber
City, Glenwood, Milan, Uvalda, Ailey, Rhine, Scotland, Chauncey,
Higgston, Santa Claus, Alston, Jacksonville, and Towns.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central, southeastern and east central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3178 8303 3181 8309 3181 8314 3188 8320
      3221 8324 3230 8265 3221 8264 3229 8243
      3235 8241 3231 8224 3217 8218 3192 8222
      3197 8244 3196 8250 3195 8248 3195 8249
      3196 8253 3196 8257 3192 8268 3178 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 337DEG 32KT 3236 8250 3219 8272 3203 8319

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH