Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
306 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

The first round of morning to early afternoon convection is finally
making its way into eastern GA and starting to exit the CWA, though
a few storms are sill around in east central GA that have been
marginally strong at times. These will continue to exit to the east
over the next hour or so. The WAA machine is going strong today, and
with the sun out behind this initial round, more convection is
already beginning to fire back in south central Alabama that will
likely slowly push towards the Columbus metro and west central
Georgia over the next few hours. Outside of that, more uncertainty
exists over if we will see some late afternoon to evening
thunderstorms across the metro and north GA. Best chances are likely
far north GA and the mountains, where models indicate some moisture
pooling could occur. Combined with the aid of mechanical lift from
the mountains, we could see some things pop with the afternoon
sunlight that should be peaking out in those areas. Outside of there
are a bit worked over after the morning convection, but the special
18Z sounding shows that it won't take much heating for us to still
have plenty of instability around. For PoPs, have carved out an area
of slight chance PoPs around the metro this afternoon with higher
PoPs to the north and south, which seems to be the likeliest outcome.

Tonight is where is gets a bit spicier. Provided that we don't end
up popping too much in the way of convection this afternoon,
shortwave rotating around larger trough is pushing into the area and
driving a cold front with it. These two features will provide plenty
in the way of lift. Despite losing daylight, aggressive WAA should
help keep instability in place to allow for sfc based convection.
Pretty much all hi-res has aligned on the idea of a line of storms
pushing from TN and AL into NW GA and then pushing across the state
to the SE after sunset. SREF sfc based CAPE values remain in the 500-
1000 J/kg range well into the overnight, which the line would be
able to take advantage off. 0-3 SRH values 100+ m2/s2 out ahead of
the line/front as well, which would certainly aid in updraft
organization. Certainly could see some damaging wind gusts, and
can't rule out a few large hail reports, as well as a small chance
of a tornado or two, especially in far NW GA as this system pushes
in. As it continues to the south, we have the advantage of both
losing frontal forcing as well as diminishing instability as the
nocturnal boundary layer becomes more established and WAA wanes.
Line should begin to weaken as it pushes through metro and then
into central GA. How quickly that occurs will be dependent on a
few factors, including how quickly the line pushes into the area.
Best timing for ATL looks to be a bit after midnight at this time.

Tomorrow should see the line dissipate into central Georgia, with
some lingering showers and storms as the front stalls in the area.
Could see some afternoon redevelopment along it in central GA,
depending on how quickly the sun is able to break out in the area.
Highs will be split with the front, with lower 80s to the north, and
likely some areas broaching 90 in central GA. Thanks to a drier
airmass and yet another cold front, tomorrow night looks as though
it could be another unseasonably cool night, with lows in the 50s
and lower 60s once again. Enjoy it while it lasts - Georgia summer
will come for us eventually.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

An active pattern is expected next week due to compressed zonal flow
aloft over much of the Southeast between a persistent upper level
ridging over the northern Gulf of Mexico and a closed low over the
Great Lakes region. As the extended period picks up on Monday night,
the surface low pressure stalled over the Great Lakes region will
begin to occlude. At this point, the cold front will become
elongated, oriented nearly parallel to the zonal flow over the
Southeast CONUS, and will stall across central and southern Georgia.
Much of north Georgia will remain within the post-frontal airmass
Monday night into early Tuesday. Low temperatures on Tuesday morning
are expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s to the north of the
front and mid to upper 60s ahead of the front. Dewpoints will
gradually increase through the day on Tuesday as low-level winds
shift from northwesterly to southwesterly, increasing into the 60s
across the area by Tuesday afternoon. Precipitable water values will
similarly recover to between 1.5 to 2". Afternoon highs on Tuesday
will range from the upper 70s to low 80s in north Georgia and mid to
upper 80s in central Georgia.

A feature to keep an eye on Tuesday will be a mid/upper level
shortwave moving quickly from the ArkLaTex towards Georgia, which
will coincide with a slug of deep moisture moving into the
Southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage from
west to east during the daytime Tuesday, with highest chances near
the stalled frontal boundary. This boundary will retreat back to the
north on Tuesday night into Wednesday, at which point another
shortwave disturbance will bring another round of numerous showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area, with highest chances
once again focused along the front. Rainfall totals from Tuesday
through Thursday morning are forecast to range from 2 to 3.5 inches,
although some uncertainty remains on where the highest amounts will
be will depend on the position of the frontal boundary, especially
as it begins to drift back to the north. Considering rain observed
today and Monday, locations that receive locally heavy rain could
see flash flooding and river flooding concerns. Similar to Tuesday,
increased cloud cover and precip coverage will keep lows limited to
the upper 70s and low 80s in north Georgia, although they will rise
into the mid to upper 80s in central Georgia.

On Thursday into Friday, it will be possible to see yet another
shortwave quickly drop from the central Great Plains towards west-
central Georgia, which would bring another round of heavy rain to
this area. However, mid-range guidance is inconsistent at this time
on the behavior and evolution of this system, and it will need to be
monitored in the coming days. By Friday afternoon and into the
weekend, high temperatures are forecast to reach into the upper 80s
to low 90s across the majority of the forecast area. These
temperatures, combined with dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to
low 70s, will lead to ample diurnal instability and scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Highest chances will be in the afternoon
hours each of these days, but showers and thunderstorms will likely
linger into the evening and night time given the low level
moisture.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

VFR to start TAF period. Mostly FEW to SCT cu expected this
afternoon. Morning rain/storms will help hold off
afternoon/evening TSRA, but can't rule out something impacting
ATL. Confidence too low in occurrence to include in TAF. Winds
are SW 8-12 kts. Line of storms expected tonight between 03-07Z.
MVFR cigs dropping to IFR by morning. Medium confidence in morning
IFR, but leaned towards it given increasing probabilities in
models. Winds will switch to W/NW tomorrow, 10-14 kts with gusts
above 20 possible.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence afternoon/evening TSRA. Medium cigs. High all
others. See above.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  83  61  81 /  90  20  10  50
Atlanta         68  82  63  81 /  80  20  20  60
Blairsville     60  76  52  74 / 100  20  10  50
Cartersville    65  82  58  79 /  90  10  20  60
Columbus        69  87  66  86 /  60  50  30  70
Gainesville     66  81  60  78 /  90  20  10  50
Macon           68  87  65  86 /  50  40  20  60
Rome            66  83  59  79 /  90  10  20  60
Peachtree City  65  84  61  82 /  70  30  20  60
Vidalia         70  89  69  89 /  30  70  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...Lusk

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121800-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Diminishing showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
early afternoon today.

Further thunderstorms are likely this evening
and tonight as a cold front moves through the area. Some storms
may become strong to severe with the main hazards including
damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.
While unlikely, a brief tornado is also possible in far northwest
Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Thunderstorms are expected to continue into early Monday morning
as the line pushes through Georgia in the overnight hours with
the main risks being damaging wind gusts.

Thunderstorms will be possible each day Tuesday through Friday.
Currently, the primary risk with these will be frequent lightning,
small hail, strong winds, and heavy rainfall that could lead to
isolated flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
312 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

GAZ085-086-111945-
Emanuel GA-Johnson GA-
312 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Emanuel
and east central Johnson Counties through 345 PM EDT...

At 311 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Blundale, or 11 miles
north of Swainsboro, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Summertown, Blundale, Three Points and Colemans Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3270 8247 3278 8248 3276 8244 3277 8241
      3278 8240 3280 8242 3282 8239 3282 8236
      3284 8233 3283 8230 3283 8226 3280 8221
      3282 8215 3280 8214 3268 8209
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 262DEG 29KT 3275 8239

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
328 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

GAZ086-113-112000-
Toombs GA-Emanuel GA-
328 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Toombs
and south central Emanuel Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 328 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Lyons, moving east at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Lyons, Vidalia, Ponderosa and Normantown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3217 8236 3230 8242 3237 8224 3235 8225
      3235 8224 3230 8223 3228 8223 3224 8221
      3223 8221 3220 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 252DEG 28KT 3227 8230

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
421 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Lyons             32.20N 82.31W
06/11/2023                   Toombs             GA   911 Call Center

            Tree down at intersection of Jones Street
            and Clifton Avenue.

&&

KAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
424 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Ponderosa         32.16N 82.27W
06/11/2023                   Toombs             GA   911 Call Center

            Tree down at intersection of Hillsboro
            Cemetery Road and HWY 280.

&&

KAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
452 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW Swainsboro        32.63N 82.35W
06/11/2023                   Emanuel            GA   911 Call Center

            Tree down at intersection of Old Wadley Road
            and R J Holder Road.

&&

KAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
459 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

GAZ052-066-112130-
Troup GA-Heard GA-
459 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Heard
and northern Troup Counties through 530 PM EDT...

At 458 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Wares Crossroads, or 8
miles northwest of LaGrange, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
LaGrange, Franklin, Hillcrest, Wares Crossroads and Harrisonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3304 8515 3311 8522 3328 8514 3325 8501
      3312 8494
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 219DEG 22KT 3311 8514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH