Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
305 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

A diminishing weak front is currently situated across north Georgia
this afternoon, providing an additional impetus for the development
of scattered showers and thunderstorms. These showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and propagate east-
southeastward through this evening with the highest coverage for
areas south of the front, generally along and south of I-20. With
analyzed SBCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg, a strong or isolated
severe thunderstorm threat can't be ruled out through the evening
with a risk for gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. However, the
highest risk will likely be relegated farther south toward the Gulf
Coast where higher instability is in place.

The next big change will come overnight. A ~1025mb surface high is
in the process of quickly advancing from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, setting up a CAD event. The wedge front will be forced
southwestward into our area from tonight into early Thursday
morning, bringing a cool (for May) northeasterly breeze and
widespread cloud cover. Some additional shower (and perhaps an
embedded storm or two) development remains possible through Thursday
morning in the vicinity of this boundary.

Thursday will be noticeably cooler and largely overcast in the midst
of the cool northeasterly flow. Highs will likely struggle to reach
70 degrees across much of north Georgia. Diurnally enhanced shower
and thunderstorm development is again expected, primarily in the
southern and western periphery of the CWA where the front provides
additional focus for development.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

No major changes made to the extended forecast. The extended
starts out a little drier friday as the short wave over the area
moves NE up the eastern seaboard pulling the deeper moisture NE
with it. This will be short lived as the next frontal boundary
moves SE into N GA just before sunrise Sat morning. This front
will move slowly SE through the state Sat but not expecting much
in the way of severe weather with it. Once this front moves
through things dry out a bit again but we still keep some decent
moisture across the area so isolated afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms can still be expected into the beginning
of next week.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

Sct shra/tsra are on the increase this afternoon with primary
window for tsra expected to be through 22-23Z, though some tsra
could linger later. While lesser coverage is expected overnight,
at least iso shra remain possible through Thurs AM. Additional
more widespread shra Thurs with highest chances for tsra at
MCN/CSG, though possible at ATL sites. Cigs will largely be VFR
through this evening, 3500-6000 ft, though low cigs are likely
after 06Z at which point IFR cigs become expected. IFR cigs, and
some patchy reduced vsbys, are expected to persist into much of
the day Thurs. Current NW winds will shift to E after 02-04Z with
speeds 5-10 kts today up to 8-12 kts on Thursday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence on shra/tsra timing.
Medium confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  68  58  73 /  50  60  40  10
Atlanta         64  70  59  73 /  30  50  30  10
Blairsville     57  68  53  72 /  10  40  30  10
Cartersville    62  73  58  74 /  20  50  30  10
Columbus        65  79  63  78 /  50  70  30  10
Gainesville     61  66  58  72 /  40  50  40  10
Macon           65  75  61  77 /  50  70  30  10
Rome            62  73  59  75 /  20  50  30  10
Peachtree City  63  72  58  74 /  40  60  30  10
Vidalia         67  77  63  79 /  60  70  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
158 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181800-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
158 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

There is the risk for a few strong storms this afternoon and
evening with the risk for an isolated severe thunderstorm also
possible. Frequent lightning, strong wind gusts and periods of
heavy downpours leading to isolated flooding are possible in the
strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms are forecast
each day Thursday through Tuesday. Isolated severe storms will be
possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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