Severe Thunderstorm Warning 584, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
340 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

Overview:

-Scattered thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will be possible
mainly south of I-85 through the evening.

-Stalled frontal boundary across south-central Georgia on Friday
 with precip chances confined to the south.

-Slightly cooler overnight temperatures both tonight and Friday
night.

This afternoon and tonight...A 500mb trough continues to drop
southward towards the southeast this afternoon and continue to be
the main driver of the convective activity through the evening. At
the surface, a weak frontal boundary is right on our door step
and will also start to move through the forecast area before
likely stalling across the southern portions of the area.
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon, some strong to
severe, generally south of I-85 moving in the east- southeast
direction. Storms thus far have had decently strong cores, small
hail and a lot of lightning. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis indicates
SBCAPE values of 3000-3500 J/kg across south-central GA and the
MLCAPE values nearing 2500 J/kg in the vicinity of the ongoing
convection in east-central GA. With drier in the mid-levels (via
water vapor imagery), steep lapse rates and PWs ranging 1.6 to
1.8 inches across the area strong damaging winds, small hail
(isolated large hail) and locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with ongoing storms and additional storms that develop.

Friday...Upper troughing remains parked over the area tomorrow.
Biggest forecast question will be where the frontal boundary
stalls as precip chances will largely be confined to areas along
and south of the front. Temperatures (at least overnight
temperatures) should be slightly cooler given the upper level
pattern. Forecast high temperatures on Friday will be in the upper
80s to low 90s. Forecast low temperatures will be in the low to
mid 60s.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

As an upper-level trough pattern sets up over the eastern CONUS
through the extended period, chances for precip remain on the
increase with nearly each day seeing a bump in shower/storm chances
this weekend through mid week. Previous discussion follows...

The forecast area will remain entrenched in an active weather
pattern as a series of disturbances embedded within the deeply
amplified trough over the east coast bring showers and thunderstorms.
With a surface boundary stalled over central and eastern Georgia
through the weekend as the disturbances pass over, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible especially during the afternoon
hours. A few storms could become strong to severe with damaging wind
gusts as the primary hazard. As the trough nudges eastward Monday,
we'll get a brief reprieve from precipitation. However, the next
shortwave kicking in from the Plains is expected to bring another
round of weather by midweek. Model guidance is still struggling to
resolve this next midlevel feature, so have maintained chance PoPs
through the end of the period.

Thiem/KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

Scattered tsra has already begun to develop generally south of
I-85 this afternoon. Activity will predominately impact MCN though
isolated tsra/shra cannot be ruled out at CSG/AHN. Elected to
remove VCSH from ATL metro sites as confidence remains low and
better ingredients/upper forcing further south. Lower vsbys
possible after 06z. West winds 8-12kts through 00z, possibly
becoming light and vrb overnight. FEW/SCT 4-6kft cigs around
15-16z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium on TSRA occurrence.
High confidence on all other elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  86  65  84 /  20  10  20  60
Atlanta         66  87  66  87 /  10  10  10  50
Blairsville     60  81  59  79 /  10  10  20  70
Cartersville    63  85  63  86 /  10   0   0  40
Columbus        68  91  67  91 /  20   0   0  30
Gainesville     65  85  64  84 /  10  10  20  60
Macon           67  90  67  89 /  30  10  10  50
Rome            64  87  65  86 /  10   0   0  40
Peachtree City  64  88  63  88 /  10   0   0  40
Vidalia         69  89  69  88 /  40  40  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
534 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-082145-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
534 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across portions of central
Georgia through late evening. Some severe thunderstorms are
possible. The primary hazards would be damaging wind gusts and
hail up to the size of quarters. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered thunderstorms are also expected for portions of the
region Friday through Wednesday. At this time the risk of severe
weather remains low after Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
516 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

GAZ076-086-098-072145-
Jefferson GA-Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-
516 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Emanuel, northeastern
Treutlen and southeastern Jefferson Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 516 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Colemans Lake to near Twin City to Covena, and moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Swainsboro, Wadley, Twin City, Stillmore, Oak Park, Garfield,
Summertown, Nunez, Covena, Modoc, Canoochee, Three Points, Lexsy,
Colemans Lake, George L Smith State Park, and Gillis Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 8203 3256 8208 3252 8215 3248 8218
      3243 8219 3238 8223 3243 8256 3265 8235
      3287 8241 3288 8230 3284 8232 3283 8230
      3283 8226 3280 8221 3281 8215 3266 8208
      3261 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 274DEG 36KT 3281 8230 3262 8219 3247 8243

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
529 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Hail             3 W Sand Bed            32.45N 83.67W
09/07/2023  E0.70 inch       Houston            GA   Public

            reports of a lot of hail on the ground
            ranging from pea to dime.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
535 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

GAZ110>112-072200-
Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Montgomery GA-
535 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Telfair, southeastern Wheeler and south central Montgomery Counties
through 600 PM EDT...

At 535 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Lumber City, or 11
miles west of Hazlehurst, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lumber City, Uvalda, and Charlotteville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8292 3203 8249 3201 8248 3197 8248
      3196 8250 3195 8248 3195 8249 3196 8255
      3192 8263 3192 8268 3190 8269 3190 8270
      3186 8276 3185 8279 3184 8278 3181 8282
      3182 8284 3180 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 254DEG 22KT 3190 8279

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
550 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

GAZ074-084-085-072215-
Wilkinson GA-Washington GA-Johnson GA-
550 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Wilkinson, southwestern Washington and northwestern Johnson Counties
through 615 PM EDT...

At 550 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Toomsboro, or 9 miles
east of Irwinton, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tennille, McIntyre, Harrison, Toomsboro, Oconee, and Hebron.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3288 8264 3269 8279 3272 8286 3271 8292
      3285 8321 3296 8310 3295 8307 3297 8307
      3299 8305 3301 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 298DEG 25KT 3286 8303

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH