Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
416 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 409 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

The tornado watch has been extended southward to account for the
tornadic storms moving east from Alabama. These storms are
expected to move eastward into Georgia in the next hour or two in
a favorable environment. Make sure to have a safe place should a
tornado warning be issued!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

Afternoon temps in the 60s and 70 with dewpoints in the 60s is
bringing spring like weather. Just like the Spring...showers and
thunderstorms with the possibility of severe weather is on the way
also. Instability is gradually growing this afternoon with capes
across the area in the 500-1000 J/KG range with a decent amount of
bulk shear across western GA coming in around 50kts. The ingredients
for a severe wind threat and low end tornado risk is certainly
present, so we have issued a Tornado watch for most of North and
west central GA through 9pm. Locally heavy rainfall will likely lead
to a risk of isolated flash flooding especially south of I-20 where
3-4 inches of rain is possible with higher isolated totals where
storms are training. The rest of the area will see 2-3 inches of
rain over the next 24-36 hours and if any training of storms sets up
we could have flash flooding just about anywhere across North and
Central GA through Wed afternoon.

The main frontal boundary will move into NW GA late tonight and move
SE through the state Wed. We will see another round of showers with
a few thunderstorms possible before finally clearing out Wednesday
night. The second round will likely just bring additional rainfall
to the area, but we will still see a threat for severe weather. This
second round will be diminished some by the first round of storms
having already worked the area over.

Things finally clear out Wed night with a slightly cooler airmass
moving in. Low temps Thu morning will dip down in the 40s for most
of the area.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 209 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

The cold front will clear the area at the start of the long term
period, bringing a return to dry conditions and relatively cooler
temperatures. Despite the relative coolness, temperatures will only
return back from record warmth to only a few degrees above normal by
Thursday into Friday. Dry conditions will persist into the weekend
before another weak frontal system drops southward by Sunday.
Moisture appears very limited, so at this point continue to
advertise generally on slight chance PoPs beginning Sunday into
Monday as the front sags and stalls/washes out in Georgia. Model
consensus then diverges by early next week as additional waves
potentially traverse eastward along the frontal zone. Thus, opted to
maintain only slight chance PoPs into early next week for potential
showers.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

Seeing showers increase across NW GA as frontal system to the west
nears the area. Expecting SHRA/TSRA to continue to increase across
the TAF sites with the ATL area seeing showers now and will TSRA
by 20z. The AHN/CSG/MCN areas will see the same thing but a few
hours later as the system continue to move East. Ceilings will
stay in the MVFR and IFR range through 18z Wed then lift and clear
out through 00z Thu as the front sweeps through the state. Winds
expected to stay out of the SW with speeds in the 8-12kt range
gusting to 20kt. VSBYs will stay mainly VFR expect in and around
any stronger storms.

//ATL Confidence...Avi Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  71  46  62 /  90 100   0   0
Atlanta         62  70  46  60 /  90 100   0   0
Blairsville     57  66  40  55 / 100 100   0   0
Cartersville    61  70  43  59 / 100  90   0   0
Columbus        64  73  47  65 /  90  90   0   0
Gainesville     62  69  46  59 /  90 100   0   0
Macon           64  74  48  68 /  80 100  10   0
Rome            62  70  42  60 / 100  80   0   0
Peachtree City  62  72  45  62 /  90  90   0   0
Vidalia         65  76  54  70 /  40  90  30   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for GAZ056-066>072-078>082-
089>092-094-102-103.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1257 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-041800-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1257 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Several waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected across
north and central Georgia starting this afternoon. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible through. Severe storms that
develop will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, brief
tornadoes, and frequent lightning.

Periods of heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding
and river flooding. A Flood Watch has been issued in portions of
west-central Georgia where rainfall totals are forecast to be
highest.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across north and central
Georgia Wednesday morning and afternoon ahead of an advancing
cold front. Several storms could become strong to severe, capable
of producing damaging wind gusts, brief tornadoes, and frequent
lightning. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash
flooding and river flooding concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
211 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

GAZ001>003-032000-
Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
211 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Catoosa,
western Walker and Dade Counties through 300 PM EST...

At 211 PM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Sequatchie Cave to near Fabius, and moving east
at 70 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Trenton, Fort Oglethorpe, Rossville, Chickamauga, Lookout Mountain,
Chattanooga Valley, La Fayette, Rising Fawn, Lakeview, Cole City,
Wildwood, Fairview, Stephensville, Chattanooga  Valley, New England,
Morganville, Hooker, Cloudland Canyon State Park and Cooper Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EST for northwestern
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8525 3472 8528 3459 8551 3459 8553
      3498 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 248DEG 59KT 3509 8554 3487 8574

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
307 PM EST TUE JAN 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S RISING FAWN         34.72N 85.53W
01/03/2023                   DADE               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON CLOVERDALE RD AND MORGAN RD.

&&

CMH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
309 PM EST TUE JAN 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE STEPHENSVILLE      34.87N 85.53W
01/03/2023                   DADE               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON WHITE OAK GAP RD.

&&

CMH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
333 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

GAZ004>007-032100-
Gilmer GA-Whitfield GA-Murray GA-Fannin GA-
333 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Gilmer,
central Murray, southeastern Whitfield and northwestern Fannin
Counties through 400 PM EST...

At 332 PM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms extended from near
Cohutta Wilderness to near Crandall to near Dalton, and moving east
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Dalton, Chatsworth, Blue Ridge, Eton, Crandall, Jones Mill, Higdon,
Cohutta Wilderness, Epworth, Conasauga Lake, Mineral Bluff,
Mountaintown, Fort Mountain State Park and Colwell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EST for north central
and northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8415 3487 8430 3472 8452 3469 8501
      3487 8476 3499 8469
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 254DEG 60KT 3501 8464 3489 8471 3475 8490

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
349 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

GAZ006>009-032130-
Gilmer GA-Union GA-Towns GA-Fannin GA-
349 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Towns,
central Gilmer, northwestern Union and northeastern Fannin Counties
through 430 PM EST...

At 349 PM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Culberson to near Tails Creek, and moving east at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Ellijay, Blue Ridge, Blairsville, East Ellijay, Morganton, Hemp,
Tails Creek, Margret, Gumlog, Nottely Dam, Hurst, Ivy Log, Loving,
Jones Creek, Dial, Pisgah, Mineral Bluff, Cherry Log and Alexanders
Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EST for north central
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3471 8415 3465 8465 3467 8465 3499 8419
      3499 8381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 254DEG 28KT 3501 8412 3470 8457

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH