Severe Thunderstorm Warning 487, NWS Atlanta, GA

940 
WWUS52 KFFC 100452
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1252 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023

GAC081-093-193-100501-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0487.000000T0000Z-230810T0530Z/
Macon GA-Dooly GA-Crisp GA-
1252 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MACON...DOOLY AND
NORTH CENTRAL CRISP COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3208 8398 3209 8398 3210 8400 3211 8400
      3212 8401 3213 8401 3215 8403 3217 8403
      3217 8404 3225 8401 3229 8394 3222 8363
      3206 8368 3196 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 301DEG 21KT 3215 8386 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1124 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1120 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Convective coverage has generally waned over the last hour, but a
couple of persistent supercells continue to ride along the nearly
stationary frontal boundary draped across the southwest portion of
the area. Given favorable MUCAPE in this area, these lingering
cells may be relatively slow to diminish, but a general downtrend
in intensity is expected with these over the next hour or two. As
the coverage of these severe cells will remain isolated, likely
will allow the remnants of the ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watch
to expire at 04Z.

RW

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Forecast remains complicated and confidence is low to medium. There
is the potential for two thunderstorm complexes to impact the CWA,
but the timing and strength of the second one remains somewhat
unclear.

THe first MCS is noted across western TN/southern MO/NE AR. This
system will continue to move east for the remainder of the afternoon
and is progged to approach NW GA just before 00Z. The second system
is noted in the water vapor imagery...a shortwave trough over
western KS. This feature will also continue to move east within the
mid level flow.

The synoptic and hi-res models continue to struggle with both of
these systems. The synoptic models seem to be having issues
differentiating between the two complexes. The hi-res models are
struggling with timing/strength. Have taken a blend of the hi-res
models for timing.

The first complex may be weakening by the time it gets to NW GA late
this afternoon and evening. It should be getting away from any good
forcing. Even though the system may be weakening overall, there
should still be enough instability around for a few strong storms or
even an isolated severe thunderstorm.

Do think the second MCS will be the main weather-maker for the CWA.
Exact timing differences abound amongst the hi-res models, but
consensus is between 06Z and 12Z for areas north of I-20. The models
really dont' have a clue what to do with tomorrow on the back side
of the MCS. Northern portions of the CWA may end up being stabilized
by precip and thick cloud cover for the afternoon. Any leftover
outflow may help trigger storms in the south tomorrow
afternoon...depending upon how far south the original system makes
it.

The second system comes with plenty of mid level forcing and even
some jet dynamics. There will also be plenty of moisture and some
instability and shear to work with. Strong storms will be likely,
with a few severe storms possible. The primary hazard for any severe
thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. A few
reports of large hail are also possible along with some potential
for localized flooding, especially where storms repeatedly move. A
brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023

No major updates to the long term forecast.

By Friday, the southeast will return once again to a more
northwesterly flow regime through early next week. By now we know
what this means for us...unsettled weather. In looking at the latest
guidance, one noteworthy item that might be worth watching is a
shortwave, originating from south-central Canada that looks to dive
southward towards the Ohio/TN Valley evolving into an upper low
early next week. Per 12z runs perhaps some'drier' air behind this
system will move into some portions of the forecast area. Though as
with any system this far out (day 6/7) and within NW flow, the
timing and evolution among model guidance remains pretty widely
spread.

Not much relief in the way of temperatures either. The warm, moist
airmass that has been in place looks to stick around through the
long-term period despite rain/thunder chances and cloud cover. High
temperatures will generally be in the 90s and low temperatures in
the 70s. Will certainly need to watch the heat Friday through the
weekend as heat indices may climb to near advisory criteria.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Initial potential for TSRA to affect ATL area and CSG sites in
the 01-03Z time frame this evening. Thereafter, uncertainty
increases regarding potential Friday AM additional TSRA, though
highest confidence period for ATL sites would be 10-14Z.
Thereafter, likely to be lesser coverage into afternoon. Potential
for at least MVFR cigs increases as well from 10-16Z at ATL/AHN
sites. Patchy IFR is possible. Winds remain west through the
period with speeds 4-8 kt overnight increasing to 6-12 kts on
Thursday with gusts up to 20 kts. Higher gusts possible in TSRA.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence in tsra timing/potential and morning cigs.
High confidence on winds.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  87  72  90 /  60  60  30  50
Atlanta         74  89  73  92 /  60  60  30  50
Blairsville     66  79  67  84 /  80  70  40  40
Cartersville    71  86  71  90 /  60  70  30  40
Columbus        76  95  77  95 /  40  30  20  60
Gainesville     71  84  71  89 /  60  60  30  40
Macon           75  94  76  92 /  40  30  20  70
Rome            72  85  72  90 /  70  70  30  40
Peachtree City  73  91  72  92 /  50  40  30  50
Vidalia         76  94  78  95 /  20  20  20  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
452 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-102100-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
452 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Two waves of thunderstorms are possible from this evening into
tonight. The first round of storms is most likely to affect
portions of northwest and north Georgia this evening with strong,
gusty winds the main threat, though a gradual weakening trend is
possible.

Additional thunderstorms are possible late tonight into early
Thursday morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms would again be
possible with damaging wind gusts the main threat. Locally heavy
rainfall could cause localized flooding concerns as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

The potential for severe weather will continue into Thursday as
thunderstorms will be ongoing early in the morning. The Storm
Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk for severe storms
mainly along and north of a Columbus to Vidalia line.

Periods of thunderstorm activity will continue through next
Tuesday. The highest storm chances will occur during the
afternoon and evening hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested, but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
701 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023

GAZ002-004>007-011-012-019-092330-
Chattooga GA-Gilmer GA-Whitfield GA-Walker GA-Gordon GA-Murray GA-
Floyd GA-Fannin GA-
701 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Gilmer,
Murray, northeastern Floyd, eastern Whitfield, southeastern Walker,
Gordon, northeastern Chattooga and northwestern Fannin Counties
through 730 PM EDT...

At 701 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Beaverdale to near North Georgia Speedway to near
Everett Springs, and moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Dalton, Calhoun, Chatsworth, Eton, Resaca, Plainville, Ranger,
Crandall, Sumac, Subligna, Jones Mill, Redbud, Lake Marvin, Conasauga
Lake, Beaverdale, Oakman, Fort Mountain State Park, Carters,
Sonoraville, and Tails Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 8443 3463 8456 3440 8479 3440 8495
      3438 8497 3440 8498 3438 8498 3439 8500
      3438 8501 3447 8533 3474 8498 3495 8489
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 285DEG 30KT 3491 8482 3471 8487 3445 8517

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
910 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023

GAZ041-042-100145-
Haralson GA-Carroll GA-
910 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Haralson and west central Carroll Counties through 945 PM EDT...

At 910 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Mount Zion, or 11 miles
west of Carrollton, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Bremen, Tallapoosa, Bowdon, Mount Zion, Waco, John Tanner
State Park, and Bowdon Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3379 8534 3375 8515 3360 8506 3350 8526
      3355 8532 3374 8536 3375 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 224DEG 21KT 3362 8528

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH