Severe Thunderstorm Warning 355, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
315 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Summer shows no sign of slowing down as temps spike tomorrow and
into Monday. As the flow transitions today from NW to W; temps and
dewpoints have the potential to increase into heat advisory and even
Excessive Heat criteria in some of the southern parts of the CWA.
South and east of a line from Columbus to Augusta dew points could
reach as high as 75 with temperatures maxing out around 97. This
combination puts our Heat Indices at 105+ for Sunday afternoon.
There are some variables here that may prevent us from reaching
excessive heat criteria;

1.) The potential for afternoon convection across the area
forecasted to reach our criteria. This may play a limiting factor in
how high our temps climb.

2.) Model discrepancy; Whether we hit our excessive heat criteria
will depend largely on dewpoint values in the afternoon. Some models
are running a little on the drier side with Td's reaching the low
70s instead of the mid to upper 70s. While this might not seem like
much they can make a big difference in how high the HI gets.

Given all of this, we have opted to go for a Heat Advisory for
Sunday. We'll continue to monitor conditions carefully and upgrade
to Excessive Heat if necessary.

This afternoon, we're expecting another day of Isolated
thunderstorms across the CWA. The main focus according to the CAMs
looks like it will stay east of the ATL metro area and along/south
of the I-20 corridor. There is the potential for a few of these
storms to have damaging winds and heavy rain given the abundance of
instability this morning along and west of a low pressure system on
the Carolinas.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

The ridge over the southwestern US will begin to shift eastward over
the southern Plains at the beginning of the long term forecast
period. As a frontal boundary moves through associated with the
upper level trough over the eastern CONUS, drier conditions will
prevail through the beginning of the work week. Despite the
influence of NWly flow that typically keeps us on our toes with
MCS's, the drier than average airmass (ranging from 0.75 to 1.5
inches of PWATs) that will be ushered in is expected to result in
lower PoPs through Wednesday, with the best chances for
precipitation remaining across the north Georgia mountains and
further south closer to a boundary that looks to stall across north
Florida. Thursday, PoP chances will increase as moisture returns to
the forecast area and the high pressure moves further east. Models
are suggesting the potential for organized storms riding the eastern
periphery of the ridge will move through the forecast area Thursday
afternoon. As the ridge to the west and trough to the east become
less amplified through the end of the work week, our flow aloft
becomes more zonal. More diurnal convective activity is expected
through the weekend as moisture remains in place over the forecast
area.

Temperatures in the 90s Monday will trend cooler through mid week
into the upper 80s and low 90s before warming gradually through the
end of the long term. Heat index values will stay out of the triple
digits for much of the period before they return to the forecast
area by Friday.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Skies have been gradually clearing over central GA this afternoon.
SCT250 for most of the metro sites, and a chance for some isolated
TSRA beginning after 22Z will be the trend of the rest of the day.
Winds are are NW at 5-8kts; with gusty conditions possible in
TSRA.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium to High on TSRA Timing
High on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  97  70  94 /  20  20  20  10
Atlanta         75  98  73  96 /  20  20  10  10
Blairsville     67  90  64  86 /  30  30  10  10
Cartersville    72  96  68  93 /  20  20  10  10
Columbus        74 100  75  98 /  20  20  10  10
Gainesville     72  97  70  93 /  20  20  20  10
Macon           72 100  71  97 /  20  20  10  10
Rome            72  97  70  94 /  20  20  10   0
Peachtree City  71  98  70  96 /  20  20  10  10
Vidalia         73  98  74  94 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ049>051-
059>062-069-071>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...Vaughn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
451 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-300900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
451 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
especially over eastcentral and middle Georgia. Some of the storms
will be strong and a few could produce localized areas of
damaging winds, frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected Sunday
through Tuesday with increasing coverage possible later next week.
Some of the storms could be strong with heavy rain, lightning and
gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
616 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

GAZ079-080-090>092-292245-
Schley GA-Chattahoochee GA-Taylor GA-Marion GA-Talbot GA-
616 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Marion,
northeastern Chattahoochee, northwestern Schley, south central Talbot
and southwestern Taylor Counties through 645 PM EDT...

At 615 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Brantley, or near Buena
Vista. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Buena Vista, Geneva, Brantley, Box Springs, Tazewell, Marion Estates,
Juniper, Charing, Oakland, and Mauk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3237 8471 3252 8470 3258 8457 3249 8435
      3240 8432 3232 8438 3231 8454
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 333DEG 4KT 3239 8454

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Albright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
637 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

GAZ091-092-103-104-292300-
Schley GA-Sumter GA-Marion GA-Webster GA-
637 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Marion,
east central Webster, southwestern Schley and northwestern Sumter
Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 637 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Friendship, or 8 miles
southwest of Ellaville. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Buena Vista, Ellaville, Putnam, Friendship, Doyle, Draneville, and
Walls Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8455 3232 8438 3223 8431 3206 8429
      3204 8437 3206 8446 3217 8448
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 048DEG 2KT 3216 8441

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Albright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
642 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

GAZ089>091-292315-
Chattahoochee GA-Marion GA-Muscogee GA-
642 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Marion,
southeastern Muscogee and eastern Chattahoochee Counties through 715
PM EDT...

At 642 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Eelbeck/West Fort
Moore, or near Cusseta, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cusseta, North Fort Moore, Christopher, Eelbeck/West Fort Moore,
Renfroe, Manta, and Zellobee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3223 8462 3223 8471 3235 8484 3246 8483
      3251 8473 3248 8461 3224 8452 3222 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 313DEG 6KT 3239 8475

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Albright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
644 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

GAZ091-092-292315-
Schley GA-Marion GA-
644 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Marion and
northwestern Schley Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 644 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Tazewell, or near Buena
Vista, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Buena Vista, Brantley, Tazewell, and Oakland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3248 8461 3244 8440 3243 8439 3242 8439
      3241 8438 3232 8438 3231 8455
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 313DEG 6KT 3238 8445

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Albright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
701 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

GAZ091-092-103-104-292330-
Schley GA-Sumter GA-Marion GA-Webster GA-
701 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Marion,
east central Webster, southwestern Schley and northwestern Sumter
Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 701 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Friendship, or near
Ellaville, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Buena Vista, Ellaville, Plains, Putnam, Friendship, Doyle,
Draneville, and Walls Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 8452 3231 8455 3232 8438 3223 8429
      3205 8429 3202 8437 3204 8443 3217 8448
      3222 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 355DEG 6KT 3218 8439

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Albright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
712 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

GAZ092-093-292345-
Macon GA-Schley GA-
712 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Macon
and southern Schley Counties through 745 PM EDT...

At 711 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Murrays Crossroads, or
near Ellaville, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds 40 to 50 mph and pea sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ellaville, La Crosse, Murrays Crossroads, and Bumphead.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8429 3223 8429 3232 8438 3236 8422
      3229 8418 3216 8418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 264DEG 13KT 3228 8427

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Albright