Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
345 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

Current radar loop shows showers and thunderstorms beginning to
pop across N GA this afternoon. These showers are associated with
a short wave moving East to Southeast across TN/Northern AL. With
NW flow over the area these storms will continue to move SE
fairly similar to yesterdays storm event. With plenty of moisture
in the atmosphere, Temps in the 90s, and SB capes ranging from
3000 to 6000 j/kg range we may be in store for some very strong
to severe storms as they move into central GA later this
afternoon/evening. Looks like the biggest threats will be strong
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and some hail. Shear values are
very low with this pattern so not expecting any tornadic threats.
These storms should weaken and diminish after sunset but with
continues NW Flow and another wave expected Sunday we could be
seeing another day of afternoon storms tomorrow.

Sunday has potential to be even warmer as the main upper level
ridge continues to shift east. Heat indices are again expected to
get up into the 100 to 110 range across the area so will continue
with the current heat advisory through Sunday evening.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

Long term begins Sunday evening with an upper level ridge centered
over the area beginning to break down giving way to zonal flow.
Generally west to southwesterly flow, warm temperatures and
dewpoints in the upper 70's will be common through the long term.
Given the warm temperatures and abundant moisture, diurnally driven
convection will be possible each afternoon and evening as weak
disturbances traverse the main flow with a focus across north GA
where a stalled frontal boundary will linger. While rain chances
remain in the forecast each day, rain will be hit or miss for most
locations resulting in 5 day rainfall totals of under an inch. In
term of severe weather the risk remains low at this time a rumble of
thunder is likely with a few storms becoming strong.

High temperatures in the 90s will be common each day through Friday
with lows barely falling into the upper 60s and 70s. Heat indices
of 100F-108F degrees will also be common across central GA Monday
through Thursday.

Friday/Saturday...a weak mid level troughs begin to impact the
region. In response to the aforementioned trough moving towards
the Deep South from the west heights will fall as southerly flow
deepens and begins to advect more moisture into the area. Pws of
over an inch and a half will remain common across the FA. This set
up will promote an increased in showers and thunderstorms along
and ahead of a weak cold front. Some of these storms could become
strong to severe. frontal boundary begins to move into NW GA. As
the day progresses and the front moves eastward precip will
increase. SBCAPEs remain modest for this set up and only encroach
upon our southern counties. Have included a mention of thunder
starting Thursday afternoon through Friday from Macon southward.

28

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

Ceilings are VFR but clouds are increasing as showers are
beginning to pop across AL/TN. We should see these storms pop
across GA in the next few hours and then begin to affect the TAF
sites by 22z-23z. Will see isolated to scattered storms across the
area through 02-03z then they should diminish with clouds
clearing overnight as well. Will see almost a repeat Sunday with
the timing of afternoon storms but not a s confident with the
coverage. VSBYS should stay VFR except in and around and
convective activity. Winds will stay mainly out of the NW to SW in
the 3-10kt range. May see some higher gust with afternoon storms.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
Atlanta         73  95  75  92 /  20  30  40  50
Blairsville     67  89  66  85 /  30  50  50  50
Cartersville    72  96  71  91 /  30  40  40  50
Columbus        75  98  76  95 /  20  40  30  50
Gainesville     72  93  73  91 /  20  30  40  40
Macon           73  98  75  96 /  20  30  30  50
Rome            72  96  73  91 /  30  50  50  50
Peachtree City  72  96  73  93 /  20  30  30  50
Vidalia         75  97  76  97 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for GAZ001>005-011-
012-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
129 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021730-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
129 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 9 PM EDT for
portions of north Georgia.

The primary threat with any storms that do form will be damaging
wind gusts, hail, frequent lightning, and isolated flash flooding
from heavy rainfall.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of north and central Georgia
today. Heat index values are expected to reach or exceed 105. If
spending time outdoors, be sure to stay hydrated, wear lightweight
clothing, and take plenty of time to rest.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Hot and humid conditions will lead to elevated heat index values
between 100-110 degrees across portions of the forecast area from
Sunday through Thursday. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the
majority of north and central Georgia from 8AM Saturday through
midnight Sunday.

Additionally, scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are possible each day Sunday through Thursday. Some
storms may become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts,
large hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall
leading to isolated flash flooding being the primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
541 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

GAZ005>007-012>014-020-021-012215-
Gilmer GA-Dawson GA-Cherokee GA-Gordon GA-Bartow GA-Pickens GA-
Murray GA-Fannin GA-
541 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Cherokee, Gilmer,
eastern Murray, northwestern Dawson, southeastern Gordon, Pickens,
Fannin and northeastern Bartow Counties through 615 PM EDT...

At 541 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Reliance to Tails Creek to Pine Log, and moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Canton, Cartersville, Jasper, Ellijay, Blue Ridge, Holly Springs,
Ball Ground, Nelson, White, Waleska, East Ellijay, Morganton, Talking
Rock, Buffington, Fairmount, Ranger, Amicalola Falls State Park,
Hickory Flat, Jones Mill and Cohutta Wilderness.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
north central and northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8416 3496 8416 3495 8418 3494 8416
      3463 8417 3460 8419 3454 8419 3411 8440
      3426 8483 3469 8467 3499 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 285DEG 38KT 3514 8459 3468 8461 3432 8475

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
543 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

GAZ030-031-041-042-012215-
Polk GA-Haralson GA-Carroll GA-Paulding GA-
543 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Paulding, Haralson, northern Carroll and southwestern Polk Counties
through 615 PM EDT...

At 543 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Tallapoosa, or near
Buchanan, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Buchanan, Villa Rica, Bremen, Temple, Tallapoosa, Mount
Zion, Waco, Abilene, Draketown, Felton and Bowdon Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
north central and northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 8538 3383 8489 3367 8492 3356 8502
      3372 8535 3387 8538 3391 8539
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 284DEG 38KT 3379 8528

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
549 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NW Folsom             34.41N 84.85W
07/01/2023                   Gordon             GA   Public

            Tree down at Blalock Rd SE and Plainview Rd
            SE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
555 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

GAZ015-016-012230-
White GA-Lumpkin GA-
555 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Lumpkin
and southern White Counties through 630 PM EDT...

At 555 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Porter Springs to near Qualatchee Lake, and
moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dahlonega, Cleveland, Garland and Qualatchee Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3460 8364 3459 8364 3450 8383 3450 8385
      3447 8392 3447 8393 3446 8393 3445 8396
      3461 8398 3468 8377
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 300DEG 6KT 3458 8393 3463 8377

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
558 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

GAZ091>093-012230-
Macon GA-Schley GA-Marion GA-
558 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Macon,
southeastern Marion and Schley Counties through 630 PM EDT...

At 558 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Walls Crossing, or near
Ellaville. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ellaville, Putnam, La Crosse, Murrays Crossroads, Walls Crossing and
Bumphead.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3237 8440 3236 8423 3219 8419 3217 8433
      3220 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 003DEG 3KT 3228 8434

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
606 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

GAZ008-015-012230-
Union GA-Lumpkin GA-
606 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Lumpkin and
southwestern Union Counties through 630 PM EDT...

At 606 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Camp Merrill, or 10
miles northwest of Dahlonega, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dahlonega, Suches, Camp Merrill, Hawk Mountain Shelter, Porter
Springs, Gaddistown and Gooch Mountain Shelter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
north central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 8394 3457 8395 3452 8406 3461 8418
      3472 8411
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 300DEG 11KT 3464 8411

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH