Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Atlanta, GA

443 
WWUS52 KFFC 301804
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
204 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

GAC223-301814-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0247.000000T0000Z-230630T1815Z/
Paulding GA-
204 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN PAULDING COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3388 8516 3386 8511 3381 8504 3379 8492
      3362 8482 3357 8509 3364 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 000DEG 13KT 3374 8506 

$$

GAC045-097-143-301815-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0247.000000T0000Z-230630T1815Z/
Haralson GA-Carroll GA-Douglas GA-
204 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN HARALSON...NORTHEASTERN CARROLL AND SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...

At 204 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Temple, or 8
miles southeast of Buchanan, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Buchanan, Villa Rica, Bremen, Temple, Mount Zion, Waco,
Abilene, Treasure Lake, Bowdon Junction and Fairplay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3388 8516 3386 8511 3381 8504 3379 8492
      3362 8482 3357 8509 3364 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 000DEG 13KT 3374 8506 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
735 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 416 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Key Messages:

-Uncertainty in morning/afternoon convection approaching GA that
 is currently in KY

-How this convection evolves will have large impacts on heat and
 storm chances later today and into tonight

-Saturday still looks to be hot, and heat advisories may be issued
 later today into tonight for then once we have more certainty in
 the convective evolution

Discussion:

Skies have mostly cleared out early this morning, but the one thing
you may notice if you are out and about is the light haze that is
hanging around the area. Some wildfire smoke continues to hang
around in the area and when combined with the high amount of
moisture in the lower atmosphere is acting to reduce visibilities a
bit. This haze should clear up some as the sun comes up and some of
the smoke and moisture begin to mix out.

Forecast for today remains challenging. Latest HRRR coming in just
after this package has now suddenly backed off bringing some showers
and storms into north GA during the morning our afternoon hours.
This is in contrast to the last several runs, which had showed
current convection in KY pushing increasingly southward and into the
northern reaches of the CWA by the late morning to early afternoon
before beginning to fade. Not going to buy into this new run just
yet - convection in KY has been persistent and outflow from a
cold pool is noted via satellite observations. This seems a bit
more organized than the shown by 08Z in the 06Z run. But time will
tell.

This convection will be important to how the rest of the day plays
out to an extent. If it can push in, clouds, rain, and even the
potential cold pool will all play a role in keeping things a bit
cooler than currently forecast. This would also remove some
instability from the atmosphere, limiting what is expected to be
another round at some point tonight. However, if this round doesn't
move through, we could get hit pretty good with a strong line of
storms later tonight that would pose threats of strong, damaging
winds and possibly hail. Instability values would likely be in the
2000-3000 (and possibly higher in pockets) J/kg this afternoon and
evening, which when combined with an organized cold pool, would
basically be jet fuel for any storms. Even for an overnight storm
system, out temperatures are not expected to cool much as humidity
values are extremely high, which would allow for storms to likely
remain surface based for some time.

Speaking of temperatures, they are cooking. As mentioned above,
timing of convection is driving some uncertainty, but the difference
between storms or no storms is likely the difference between hot and
uncomfortably hot. Even without storms we probably won't quite make
our heat index criteria of 105 for heat advisories, but we'd come
quite close and could hit it in isolated spots. One important thing
to note is that our overnight temperatures are not cooling much -
only into the 70s. For vulnerable populations, this does not provide
much in the way of relief overnight before they are hit again with
very warm temperatures the next day. Many heat deaths are a
byproduct of this accumulated stress on the body. With even warmer
temperatures forecast on Saturday, please keep this in mind
regardless of whether or not heat products are issued.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 416 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Key Messages:

 - Heat will remain a concern (especially over central Georgia)
through the 4th of July.

 - Several rounds of thunderstorm activity may occur in the region
between Sunday and the 4th of July.

 - Temperatures shifting back towards seasonal averages to conclude
the week.

Sunday through the 4th of July:

This period will feature an upper level trough tracking through the
Tennessee Valley towards the Northeast. A surface front associated
with the trough should approach our region Sunday, before stalling
out somewhere between Kentucky and northern Georgia Monday and
Tuesday. A hot and humid airmass should be in place ahead of this
system Sunday, with heat indices in the 100-110 degree range
expected. Expect this to lead to a significant amount of instability
in the region on Sunday. The EPS, GEFS and CMCE all have
probabilities at or above 70% for CAPE in excess of 1000 j/kg, with
the GEFS and CMCE being fairly bullish with 60% or greater probs for
CAPE over 2000 j/kg. Lapse rates from 700-500 mb and shear are less
intriguing, so the main concerns with any storms on Sunday would
likely be wind or lighting related. As it has been for the last
couple of days the main caveat in the forecast for Sunday would be
any potential MCS development to our north and west. This could
disrupt our typically diurnally driven storm chances or the
temperature forecast.

With the aforementioned front potentially lingering in our region
Monday and Tuesday, thunderstorms will remain a concern. Currently
the confidence in the timing of any convection during this period is
low. Thus our forecast leans towards the typical diurnal pattern for
this time of year, with the greatest rain chances forecast in the
late afternoon and evening. For what it is worth (given the lower
confidence) this is consistent with guidance from the GEFS and EPS.
Our going rain chances peak in the 40 to 50 percent range for both
Monday and Tuesday during the afternoon and evening. Disruptions
could occur for any 4th of July celebrations, and the forecast
should be monitored for this potential going forward.

Wednesday through Next Weekend:

Guidance from the global ensembles suggests near zonal flow over the
Southeast and troughing over the Great Lakes and Northern Plains to
conclude the week. If this holds true we may see a shift back to
more seasonal temperatures (highs over 88 to 93 degrees) by the end
of the workweek. Diurnally driven convection will likely continue,
though a shift towards typically summer time pop storms would be
favored as opposed to the recent MCS activity due to the loss of
northwest flow aloft.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Early morning haze and smoke should fade as sun continues to rise,
improving vsby to VFR. Cu field expected to develop this
afternoon, though how long it sticks around will be dependent on
TSRA in TN that is moving south. That may impact the airport this
afternoon around 18-22Z, though uncertainty on how well it holds
together. Another round of TS possible later tonight into early
tomorrow morning, but that will also likely depend on the
evolution of the ongoing storms. Winds will be from W to NW
through period 5-10 kts, though could see brief switch to NE if
storms hold together and gust front moves through.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence in placement and timing of convection. High all
others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  95  72  96 /  20  30  30  30
Atlanta         72  97  74  96 /  20  30  20  30
Blairsville     67  90  68  90 /  20  40  30  40
Cartersville    71  98  73  97 /  20  30  20  40
Columbus        74 101  74  98 /  20  30  30  40
Gainesville     71  95  73  95 /  20  30  30  30
Macon           72  98  74  99 /  20  30  20  30
Rome            72 100  74  96 /  20  30  20  40
Peachtree City  71  98  72  97 /  20  30  20  30
Vidalia         74  98  76  99 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Lusk

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1251 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-011700-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1251 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Thunderstorms will be possible today across north and central
Georgia, with best chances across northern Georgia. Some of these
storms could be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts, large
hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall being the
primary hazards. A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather is
in effect for far northern Georgia, with a Marginal Risk (1 out
of 5) across remaining portions of north and central Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Hot and humid conditions will lead to elevated heat index values
between 100-110 degrees across portions of the forecast area from
Saturday through Wednesday. If spending time outdoors, be sure to
stay hydrated, wear lightweight clothing, and take plenty of time
to rest.

Additionally, isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are possible each day Saturday through Monday. Some
storms may become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts,
large hail, and locally heavy rainfall being the primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1121 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

GAZ001>004-301630-
Whitfield GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
1121 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Catoosa, Whitfield,
Walker and Dade Counties through 1230 PM EDT...

At 1121 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Middle Valley, or 9
miles northeast of Chattanooga, moving south at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Dalton, Lafayette, Ringgold, Trenton, Fort Oglethorpe, Rossville,
Chickamauga, Varnell, Lookout Mountain, Tunnel Hill, Cohutta,
Chattanooga Valley, La Fayette, Center Post, Blue Spring, Fairview,
Linwood, Beaverdale, Villanow and Chattanooga  Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8482 3492 8484 3487 8482 3481 8486
      3480 8484 3478 8488 3472 8486 3471 8494
      3468 8489 3467 8489 3468 8494 3464 8491
      3462 8493 3462 8506 3459 8506 3459 8553
      3462 8554 3465 8551 3465 8554 3498 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 1521Z 005DEG 25KT 3518 8517

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1201 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

GAZ006-007-301630-
Gilmer GA-Fannin GA-
1201 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Gilmer and
eastern Fannin Counties through 1230 PM EDT...

At 1201 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Cherry Log, or near
Blue Ridge, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Blue Ridge, Morganton, Dial, Cartecay, Pisgah, Cherry Log, Stover
Creek Shelter, Roy and Margret.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 8450 3494 8430 3473 8413 3461 8423
      3462 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 1601Z 335DEG 19KT 3482 8436

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1226 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

GAZ001-002-011-301700-
Chattooga GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
1226 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Walker,
southwestern Dade and northwestern Chattooga Counties through 100 PM
EDT...

At 1226 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Sulpher Springs, or 13
miles south of Trenton, moving south at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Menlo, Rising Fawn and Cloudland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8542 3453 8534 3446 8550 3481 8557
TIME...MOT...LOC 1626Z 354DEG 25KT 3469 8551

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
101 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

GAZ011-012-019-020-301730-
Chattooga GA-Gordon GA-Bartow GA-Floyd GA-
101 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Floyd,
western Gordon, northeastern Chattooga and northwestern Bartow
Counties through 130 PM EDT...

At 101 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Everett Springs, or 9
miles west of Calhoun, moving south at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rome, Calhoun, Adairsville, Plainville, Shannon, Pinson, Oostanaula,
Subligna, Sugar Valley, Armuchee, Everett Springs and Lake Marvin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 8524 3459 8516 3459 8506 3461 8506
      3462 8505 3461 8505 3461 8503 3432 8489
      3420 8499 3422 8516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 340DEG 32KT 3449 8511

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
105 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

GAZ019-301745-
Floyd GA-
105 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Floyd
County through 145 PM EDT...

At 105 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Lyerly, or near
Summerville, moving south at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Rome, Cave Spring, Lindale and Coosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3429 8539 3430 8538 3431 8538 3433 8537
      3437 8533 3440 8526 3410 8509 3409 8516
      3410 8516 3410 8526 3408 8526 3409 8542
      3429 8546
TIME...MOT...LOC 1705Z 343DEG 29KT 3440 8538

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
122 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

GAZ020>022-031>033-301745-
North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-Bartow GA-Forsyth GA-Paulding GA-
122 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Paulding,
Cherokee, western Forsyth, Cobb, northeastern Fulton and southeastern
Bartow Counties through 145 PM EDT...

At 122 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Reavis Mountain to near White, and moving south at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Marietta, Canton, Cartersville, Cumming, Mountain Park, Peachtree
Corners, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Smyrna,
Dunwoody, Milton, Kennesaw, Duluth, Woodstock, Acworth, Powder
Springs, Holly Springs and Austell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3437 8440 3438 8426 3434 8426 3433 8421
      3410 8411 3407 8412 3405 8410 3403 8412
      3403 8417 3400 8418 3399 8420 3400 8420
      3400 8425 3397 8426 3396 8430 3397 8434
      3394 8435 3380 8476 3424 8484 3439 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 349DEG 30KT 3438 8434 3423 8476

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH