Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Atlanta, GA

470 
WWUS52 KFFC 230045
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
845 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

GAC207-230054-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0215.000000T0000Z-230623T0115Z/
Monroe GA-
845 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3283 8380 3292 8377 3294 8373 3295 8373
      3295 8371 3296 8371 3298 8372 3300 8372
      3306 8358 3296 8337 3288 8344 3285 8351
      3282 8349 3274 8359
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 215DEG 19KT 3289 8359 

$$

GAC021-169-230115-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0215.000000T0000Z-230623T0115Z/
Bibb GA-Jones GA-
845 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL BIBB AND SOUTHERN JONES COUNTIES...

At 844 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Cross Keys, or
near Macon, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Gray, Payne, Payne City, Postell, James, Mountain Springs,
Griswoldville, Greenberry Crossroads, Clinton, Cross Keys, Wesleyan,
Arkwright and Franklinton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3283 8380 3292 8377 3294 8373 3295 8373
      3295 8371 3296 8371 3298 8372 3300 8372
      3306 8358 3296 8337 3288 8344 3285 8351
      3282 8349 3274 8359
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 215DEG 19KT 3289 8359 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

165 
WWUS52 KFFC 230101
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
901 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

GAC021-169-230111-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0215.000000T0000Z-230623T0115Z/
Bibb GA-Jones GA-
901 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL BIBB AND SOUTHERN
JONES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3283 8380 3292 8377 3294 8373 3295 8373
      3295 8371 3296 8371 3298 8372 3300 8372
      3306 8358 3296 8337 3288 8344 3285 8351
      3282 8349 3274 8359
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 215DEG 19KT 3297 8353 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
351 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 349 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

As the period begins, the cutoff upper low is beginning to drift
northeastward along the Appalachians towards the mid-Atlantic. A dry
slot on the southwest side of the cutoff low and on the east side of
a ridge over the south-central CONUS spread over Georgia earlier
today. This dry slot served to inhibit precipitation coverage and
rainfall amounts through much of the morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms have redeveloped across portions of central and east
Georgia and are expected to persist into the early evening hours.
Portions of east-central Georgia, where dewpoints are in the low
70s, have been able to warm into the mid 80s this afternoon, leading
to SBCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg. Furthermore, with an upper level
speed max rotating through central Georgia, deep layer bulk shear
values are currently 35-40 kts in central and east Georgia. The
combination of these factors could allow for isolated strong to
severe storms where these parameters overlap. Severe storms that
develop could produce damaging wind gusts. A brief, isolated tornado
also cannot be ruled out.

There is also the potential for storms to train over common
locations this afternoon and evening. As such, the Flood Watch
remains in effect across portions of north and central GA through
Friday evening. With saturated soils and increased streamflows from
previous rainfall, localized heavy rainfall could lead to flash,
urban, and small stream flooding. At this time, the heaviest
rainfall totals are forecast in the southeastern corner of the
forecast area, which could see an additional 1-1.5 inches of rain
through this evening. Will need to monitor rainfall amounts today
and the precip outlook for Friday, as we may be able to cancel the
Flood Watch earlier than anticipated.

Rain chances are expected to gradually diminish after sunset. With a
combination of wet soils, temperatures dropping to the mid 60s in
north Georgia, and nearly calm winds, the development of fog is
looking increasingly likely on Friday morning. Some areas of dense
fog will also be possible. On Friday, the cutoff low will continue
to lift northeastward as high pressure over the Northeast CONUS
continues to break down. With cloud cover diminishing, temperatures
will increase into the mid 80s across the majority of the area
tomorrow afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across
the area, with highest chances in east-central Georgia where
dewpoints and PWATs will be highest.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

By Saturday morning, showers and thunderstorms should be mostly out
of the region besides maybe a few lingering showers in the far
Southeast  and Northeast CWA. Any showers in this area should move
out fairly quickly as our pesky surface low and associated trough
continue to move to the Northeast. Dry air on the backside of this
system, with PWATs around 1", will help our temps return to more
seasonable highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Moving into Sunday,
the mid level flow pattern sees us downstream of a shallow ridge
ahead of eastward propagating trough, meaning continued drier
conditions.

For the first half of next week, Monday through Tuesday, conditions
once again moisten as southerly flow brings a GoM airmass back into
the South. PWATs could spike up to 1.8-2.2" for much of the area.
The main  uncertainty will come with the movement of the surface low
across the midwest and into the Ohio River Valley. Ensemble guidance
shows high spread to the backside of the low, indicating the
potential for slower eastward propagation. With this uncertainty the
timing of the associated cold front through the region will need to
be monitored over the coming days. Current guidance suggests the
surface front may pass through Monday afternoon which would align
with peak diurnal heating. Should this play out, there may be the
potential for a few storms along and ahead of the front to become
strong. Should the front move through earlier or into Tuesday
morning we may struggle to get more than showers and a few rumbles
of thunder. With the potential for PWATs near the upper end of
climatological norm as well as cold front forcing some showers and
thunderstorms may see elevated rainfall rates.

Post frontal conditions on Wednesday into Thursday morning might be
a chance to dry out. With the drier air and ridging developing
across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley. The
one caveat to this is the trend for MCS style thunderstorms to
"ride the ridge" along the eastern side of high pressure systems.
This tendency will account for some slight chance precip PoPs later
next week.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Clouds have remained low across the forecast area, with mainly
IFR ceilings across northeast Georgia and into the north ATL
metro, and MVFR elsewhere across the area. Scattered SHRA has
begun to redevelop and will increase in coverage this afternoon.
The best window for TSRA development appears to be in the mid to
late afternoon, with a TEMPO for TSRA between 20-22Z at ATL. Winds
are expected to remain light through the afternoon and evening,
at 5 kts or less. Winds at ATL may briefly shift to the NW side at
ATL this afternoon, but will be NE after 02Z, becoming light and
variable after 06Z. Confidence is increasing in fog development
overnight into the morning hours, along with IFR/LIFR ceilings.
Ceilings are expected to lift to MVFR by 13-15Z tomorrow, then
scatter out in the early afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  82  64  85 /  30  40  20  10
Atlanta         65  82  65  85 /  20  30  10   0
Blairsville     59  76  58  79 /  30  50  30  20
Cartersville    63  82  62  87 /  20  30  10  10
Columbus        68  86  66  88 /  30  30  20   0
Gainesville     64  81  64  84 /  20  30  20  10
Macon           67  84  66  88 /  50  50  30  10
Rome            64  83  64  89 /  20  30  10  10
Peachtree City  64  84  63  86 /  30  40  10   0
Vidalia         70  84  70  88 /  70  70  50  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for GAZ014>016-022>025-027-
033>039-045>051-055-057>062-071>076-080>086-092>098-104>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....SAM
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
317 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-231930-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
317 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of north and central
Georgia. Many areas have received 2-6 inches of rain over the
last 3 days, and periods of heavy, continuous rainfall over
saturated areas may result in flash, river, and/or urban flooding
for several locations.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening,
with the greatest coverage over east central Georgia. A couple
strong storms could be possible and an isolated severe storm
cannot be ruled out. The primary threats will be locally heavy
rainfall and damaging wind gusts. A brief, isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The Flood Watch will remain in effect until 8 PM on Friday.
Several locations may experience flash, river, and/or urban
flooding through Friday evening before heavy rain subsides ahead
of a drier weekend. Localized rainfall totals through Friday may
exceed 5 inches.

Finally, another round of thunderstorms is expected on Monday
afternoon and evening ahead of and along a cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
806 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

GAZ072-081>084-094-095-230030-
Peach GA-Wilkinson GA-Bibb GA-Houston GA-Crawford GA-Jones GA-
Twiggs GA-
806 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Wilkinson, Bibb,
Twiggs, Peach, northern Houston, eastern Crawford and southeastern
Jones Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 806 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Huber, or 10 miles
southeast of Macon, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Perry, Fort Valley, Jeffersonville, Irwinton, Warner Robins,
Centerville, Byron, Gordon, Ivey, McIntyre, Toomsboro, Danville,
Payne, Allentown, Robins AFB, Payne City, Marion, Lake Tobesofkee and
Robins Air Force Base.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3250 8384 3264 8396 3284 8384 3292 8329
      3283 8305 3258 8324
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 257DEG 21KT 3269 8358

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH