Severe Thunderstorm Warning 214, NWS Atlanta, GA

374 
WWUS52 KFFC 202355
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
755 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

GAC021-079-153-169-225-289-319-210005-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0214.000000T0000Z-230621T0030Z/
Wilkinson GA-Bibb GA-Twiggs GA-Peach GA-Houston GA-Crawford GA-
Jones GA-
755 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL WILKINSON...SOUTHERN
BIBB...TWIGGS...NORTHEASTERN PEACH...NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON...EAST
CENTRAL CRAWFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 3263 8398 3276 8376 3292 8345 3288 8304
      3287 8304 3287 8303 3285 8303 3286 8302
      3285 8299 3268 8320 3255 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 269DEG 23KT 3287 8333 3274 8351 3262 8377 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
302 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

The latest satellite data still shows a nearly stationary low
pressure center spinning over central TN. Low clouds this morning
have gradually given way to a CU field across much of the CWA and a
few thunderstorms are already starting to pop up across the NE
Georgia mountains where the cold front begins to occlude. This setup
will likely lead to another afternoon of showers and
thunderstorms for a better part of the CWA though the primary
focus for storms and heavy rain will likely include the metro area
and north.

While severe weather isn't the primary threat, given surfaced base
CAPE values at around 1500 J/KG there is plenty of energy for storms
to get up and get going. A lack of any substantial shear and modest
lapse rates all the way through the column will likely prevent a
vast majority of this afternoon's storms from reaching our critical
warning thresholds. This morning's sounding does have PW values at
nearly 1.6" which exceeds the climatological 75% and with rainfall
totals potentially exceeding two inches for some areas in the next
24 hours; our primary threat will be flooding. A flood watch will go
into effect tomorrow morning for areas of north eastern GA where
rainfall totals are forecast to exceed 4" over the next 36 hours.

Temps will be near average over the course of the short term, with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s. Some areas may
struggle to reach these highs as the atmosphere becomes rain cooled
such as the higher elevations where highs are capped at the mid 70s.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Model guidance remains consistent that the cutoff surface low over
the southeast will slowly drift N/NE through Thursday and Friday.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to hang around as
Gulf and Atlantic moisture is driven inland. This will be a moist
airmass, with PWATs above 1.5" for the entire state
. Flooding may become a hazard, particularly across North Georgia,
where a further 1-2" of rain may fall atop areas that may have
already received over 2" already.

On Saturday, evening PoP uncertainty increases. The cutoff low will
continue to drift northward and a digging shortwave trough will
begin to make its presence known across the central CONUS. In a
narrow band, between the wrap-around moisture of the cutoff low and
the incoming cold front associated with the incoming trough, dry air
will likely have the opportunity to entrain into central GA. Should
dry air make its way this far south, showers and thunderstorms would
become suppressed Saturday night into Sunday evening. A few
scattered shower or thunderstorm is not totally out of the question
Sunday afternoon alongside diurnal forcing, however no significant
rainfall accumulations are expected for this period.

Rounding out the longterm forecast, the incoming cold front will
mean a return to moist south and southwesterly flow late Sunday into
early Monday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead
of and along the frontal boundary. Timing of the frontal passage
will be important in determining the end of PoPs Monday and Tuesday,
however current model guidance shows the cold front moving through
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Northwest flow behind the front
may be indicative of drier times ahead, however being six days out
in an active period this is likely to change.

In summary, wet conditions will dominate the longterm outlook with a
brief reprieve possible Sunday and Monday morning. Flooding may
become a hazard, particularly across North and East GA as rainfall
rainfall totals of 2 to 4.5 inches are possible through Saturday and
further amounts possible Monday into Tuesday.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

A SCT CU field with low VFR clouds will RA and possibly some TSRA
this afternoon between 19-00Z. Winds will be out of the SW at 5-
8kts; with gusts at 15-20kts possible in areas of TSRA.  As storms
die off after 00Z, MVFR with some IFR CIGS will linger through the
overnight hours.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium to high on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  75  65  77 /  80  90  90  80
Atlanta         68  76  66  77 /  70  90  80  80
Blairsville     64  70  62  71 /  60  90  80  90
Cartersville    68  77  65  78 /  70  90  80  80
Columbus        70  81  69  82 /  70  90  80  80
Gainesville     66  72  63  75 /  80  90  80  80
Macon           68  81  68  81 /  90 100  90  90
Rome            68  78  65  80 /  50  90  70  80
Peachtree City  68  78  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
Vidalia         71  83  70  83 /  60  90  90  90

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for
GAZ014>016-022>025-027-034>037-047-049.

&&

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Vaughn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
219 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-211830-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
219 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Widespread showers thunderstorms are forecast today with heavy
rainfall leading to localized flooding being the primary hazard.
Storms that form today are not expected to become severe, but a
few could create strong winds gusts and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

A cool and rainy pattern will set in this week with numerous
rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected through next
weekend. A flood watch is in effect from Wednesday morning through
Thursday Evening. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are
forecast between today through Friday, with locally higher values
over 5 inches possible over previously saturated areas. The risk
for flooding on any given day remains Slight (level 2 of 4), but
will increase over time as rainfall totals accumulate and soils
become increasingly saturated, with the highest likelihood
occurring south of the Southern Appalachian Mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
615 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

GAZ033-043-044-202245-
North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-South Fulton GA-
615 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Douglas
and southwestern Fulton Counties through 645 PM EDT...

At 614 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Sweetwater Creek State
Park, or near Douglasville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Douglasville, City of South Fulton, East Point, Union City,
Lithia Springs, Sweetwater Creek State Park, Campbellton, Sandtown
and Chapel Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3380 8470 3378 8461 3374 8458 3377 8454
      3376 8446 3359 8454 3366 8474
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 284DEG 16KT 3371 8465

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
648 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

GAZ069>072-079-081-082-202315-
Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Upson GA-Crawford GA-Jones GA-Talbot GA-
648 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Bibb,
Monroe, Upson, northwestern Crawford, west central Jones, northern
Talbot and southeastern Lamar Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 647 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Dames Ferry to near Logtown to near Pine Mountain
Valley, and moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Thomaston, Forsyth, Gray, Woodland, Yatesville, Culloden, Lincoln
Park, Sunset Village, Bolingbroke, Dames Ferry, Redbone Crossroads,
Russellville, Brent, Clinton, Musella, Sprewell Bluff State Park,
Redbone, Pleasant Hill, Logtown and Arkwright.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3290 8431 3309 8390 3300 8354 3276 8404
      3272 8460 3279 8469 3282 8469
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 284DEG 16KT 3302 8375 3282 8419 3278 8478

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
704 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

GAZ072-082>084-202330-
Wilkinson GA-Bibb GA-Jones GA-Twiggs GA-
704 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Wilkinson, northeastern Bibb, northwestern Twiggs and southeastern
Jones Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 704 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Cross Keys, or near
Macon, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Payne, Payne City, Cross Keys, Wesleyan, Dry Branch, Postell,
Arkwright, Mountain Springs, Griswoldville and Franklinton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3277 8352 3289 8376 3302 8363 3285 8331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 224DEG 4KT 3284 8356

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
719 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

GAZ081-082-094-202345-
Peach GA-Bibb GA-Crawford GA-
719 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Bibb,
northeastern Peach and central Crawford Counties through 745 PM
EDT...

At 719 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Sandy Point, or 7 miles
east of Roberta, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Roberta, Byron, Knoxville, Lizella, Lake Tobesofkee, Jack
Brown Estates, Skipperton, Rutland, Sandy Point and Horns.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3268 8407 3287 8383 3279 8360 3258 8382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 288DEG 17KT 3275 8388

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
727 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

GAZ073-210000-
Baldwin GA-
727 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Baldwin County
through 800 PM EDT...

At 727 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Allenwood, or near
Milledgeville, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and up to penny sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Milledgeville, Midway-Hardwick, Meriwether, Underwood, Hardwick,
Browns Crossing, Allenwood, Pancras and Scottsboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3297 8319 3298 8321 3297 8325 3302 8339
      3306 8340 3318 8335 3317 8333 3317 8332
      3318 8332 3319 8328 3318 8321 3315 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 288DEG 13KT 3310 8330

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
729 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

GAZ071>073-082>084-210000-
Wilkinson GA-Monroe GA-Baldwin GA-Bibb GA-Jones GA-Twiggs GA-
729 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Baldwin, northwestern Wilkinson, northern Bibb, northwestern Twiggs,
southeastern Monroe and southern Jones Counties through 800 PM EDT...

At 728 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Griswoldville, or 7
miles northeast of Macon, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Gray, Gordon, Ivey, Payne, Payne City, Postell, James,
Mountain Springs, Griswoldville, Fitzpatrick, Greenberry Crossroads,
Clinton, Ripley, Cross Keys, Wesleyan, Dry Branch, Myricks Mill,
Arkwright and Franklinton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 8383 3304 8368 3294 8318 3270 8340
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 279DEG 29KT 3288 8353

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH