Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Atlanta, GA

581 
WWUS52 KFFC 142150
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
550 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

GAC153-289-142200-
/O.EXP.KFFC.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-230614T2200Z/
Twiggs GA-Houston GA-
550 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN TWIGGS AND
NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3257 8372 3261 8371 3261 8372 3263 8372
      3264 8373 3265 8373 3265 8371 3267 8371
      3267 8363 3266 8362 3266 8360 3267 8360
      3268 8337 3251 8338
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 278DEG 39KT 3257 8325 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
322 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms are currently pushing through
much of the forecast area this afternoon. Strong to severe
thunderstorms largely remain confined to areas along and south of
I-20. Latest radar imagery still shows activity developing across
Central AL and we will be monitoring how this evolves as it
progresses closer to the forecast area.

Heavy rainfall has been observed over portions of west-central
Georgia, including Columbus, earlier this morning. Some locations
have seen rainfall amounts of as high as 4-5 inches. As a result,
a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall has been identified by thr
WPC for this area of west-central Georgia, where 1-hr flash flood
guidance of is currently 1-2 inches. Locally heavy rainfall and
flash flood potential continues to be of great concern as we head
into this evening and overnight particularly across south-central
GA.

Current hazards in effect:

-Flood Watch for portions of south-central GA...Troup Co. eastward
 to Jones Co. southward. This is in effect until Thursday
 evening.
-A Tornado Watch is also in effect for portions of southwest
 Georgia including the same counties but only extending from
 Heard, Meriwether down to Wilcox. This is in effect until 7PM
 this evening.

The meandering surface boundary as translated a little bit further
north owing to more coverage of storms in the vicinity of the ATL
metro. Hi-res guidance is trending towards better agreement that
ongoing thunderstorms will start to move southward through the
remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening hours. As
storms start to translate south, it's looking more likely that
they will become more organized into a linear mode. As
thunderstorms start to diminish this evening, where the remnants
of the surface boundary associated with these storms will be
critical to the next round of thunderstorms overnight into early
Thursday morning.

Moving into tonight, another mid-level shortwave will quickly
translate across central Alabama and eastward towards the
forecast area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms upstream are
anticipated to evolve into a small mesoscale convective complex,
which could enter west- central Georgia as early as midnight. As
this complex overruns the aforementioned remnant boundary, it will
be possible to see the development of bowing segments across the
southern tier of the forecast area. As such, the primary threat
with overnight activity is expected to be damaging wind gusts.

Some thunderstorms will furthermore be possible as far north as the
Atlanta metro overnight. However, with lesser SBCAPE values this far
north, these storms are expected to be more elevated in nature, and
more of a heavy rain and lightning threat rather than a severe
weather threat. How things play out this evening and overnight
will determine the weather scenario going into the daylight hours
on Thursday.

07/King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

The long term forecast remains on track from what was earlier
forecasted.

Will preface the discussion with the following...the weather
scenarios for Friday through the weekend are highly dependent on
what transpires through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening.

Caveats:
- the location of the surface boundary will determine rainfall
  amounts and severe potential.
- Remnant boundaries, clearing, and/or mesoscale details could
  contribute to ongoing or diminishing convective activity as we
  head into Thursday and even Friday.

Still an evolving situation and a lot of forecast questions to
mull over. Still want to emphasize the growing potential for
locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding through the end of the
week. By the time we reach late week many areas will have already
received roughly 1 to 4" of rainfall with locally higher amounts.
Any additional rainfall through the weekend could pose flooding
concerns.

By Friday, flow aloft starts to transition to more out of the
northwesterly as the upper trough finally rounds the bend and lifts
northeast and ridging becomes more amplified across the Central
CONUS. With low-level moisture still being present at this time the
change in the upper level pattern favors more diurnally driven
convection in the afternoon and evening hours through the weekend.
By early  next week guidance begins to diverge as far as the
evolution of the upper level pattern. Though by sometime late
weekend/early next week deterministic guidance is hinting at another
system developing across the western CONUS and translating towards
the Ohio/TN Valley Regions. So more rain may be on tap for Georgia
next week.

Gradual warming trend expected through the long term, with low to
mid 80s on Thursday warming to the upper 80s/low 90s by Friday and
continuing through the weekend. Low temperatures forecast to be in
the 60s to low 70s.

Hernandez/07

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Active forecast period expected across the entire ZTL air space
today. Multiple small impulses within the atmosphere will make
the TAF period very uncertain. Ongoing SHRA/TSRA at most of the
sites this afternoon. Based on the latest guidance it does look
like another round of shra/tsra will be possible overnight but
higher confidence this occurs across CSG/MCN. Lower confidence at
all the northern sites. CIGs will also be a mixed bag today, but
mostly low- VFR/MVFR outside of convection. SW winds will remain
in place and between 07-14 kts with variable gusts nearing
18-20kts.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium on all elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  82  64  88 /  50  50  40  20
Atlanta         65  81  66  87 /  50  60  50  20
Blairsville     57  79  58  82 /  40  40  30  20
Cartersville    63  82  63  88 /  50  50  40  20
Columbus        66  82  67  87 /  80  90  80  50
Gainesville     62  81  65  87 /  50  50  40  10
Macon           66  83  66  88 /  70  80  70  30
Rome            64  84  65  90 /  50  50  40  20
Peachtree City  64  81  63  87 /  60  70  50  30
Vidalia         68  85  68  88 /  60  80  90  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for GAZ066>072-078>083-
089>096-102>110.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1228 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-151630-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1228 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Tornado Watch is in effect for portions of west-central Georgia
until 7 PM EDT.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast for portions of
central Georgia this afternoon and evening with the main risks
being large hail over an inch in diameter, damaging wind gusts,
frequent lightning, isolated tornadoes and heavy rainfall.
Tornadoes will also be possible this afternoon, most likely across
west-central Georgia. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to
flooding concerns, and a Flood Watch remains in effect for
portions of central Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Thursday morning...numerous showers and thunderstorms are
forecast for portions of central Georgia with the main risks
being damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, isolated tornadoes,
hail, and heavy rainfall. A moderate risk for severe weather is
in place for portions of far west-central Georgia near Columbus
overnight.

A Flood Watch will remain in effect for portions of central
Georgia through Thursday evening.

Friday through Monday...scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected each day. Storms will be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts, localized flooding, frequent lightning and hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     Hail             1 ENE Senoia            33.30N 84.54W
06/14/2023  E1.00 inch       Coweta             GA   Public

            1 inch hail reported at intersection of
            Seavy Street and Werner Way.

&&

KAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
407 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     Hail             1 NW Walnut Grove       33.75N 83.86W
06/14/2023  E1.00 inch       Walton             GA   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
416 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     Hail             Hogansville             33.17N 84.91W
06/14/2023  M1.75 inch       Troup              GA   Public

            Public report with picture via social media
            of golf ball sized hail in Hoganville.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
421 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WSW Blacksville       33.42N 84.17W
06/14/2023                   Henry              GA   Emergency Mngr

            Henry County EOC reports winds up to 65 mph
            and several thousand without power
            throughout the county.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
511 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NW Senoia             33.31N 84.57W
06/14/2023                   Coweta             GA   NWS Employee

            Tree reported down on Standing Rock Rd
            between Hugh Brown Rd and Toonerville Rd.

&&

SEK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
515 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     Hail             Grantville              33.24N 84.83W
06/14/2023  E1.75 inch       Coweta             GA   Public

            Social media picture of at least golf ball
            sized hail in Grantville.

&&

DL