Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
237 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

Initial isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have
begun to develop as analyzed SBCAPE has built to 2000-3000 J/kg
across the area early this afternoon. Additional development is
expected this afternoon into this evening, particularly to the
northwest as a mid- level shortwave and associated weak surface
low push across the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Thus, a
couple of different "rounds" of convection are possible with the
initial scattered development occurring within the warm, unstable
environment this afternoon and secondly with any activity that
develops across the Tennessee Valley and drops southward into
north Georgia later this evening. An isolated severe risk exists
with any of this activity, primarily across north Georgia where
enhanced winds aloft associated with the aforementioned shortwave
will increase a locally damaging wind threat with any storm
clusters this evening.

On Wednesday, a trough dropping through eastern Canada will push
a cold front southward into the region. The front will roughly
bisect the area tomorrow afternoon, focusing the highest coverage
of showers and thunderstorms across the southern two thirds or so
of the area. With a soupy airmass remaining in place and
instability building through the afternoon, the risk for strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms will again exist, despite weaker
winds aloft as compared to today. Locally heavy rainfall will be a
risk again given PWATs of 1.5 to near 2".

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

Thursday and Friday: CAD/wedge will promote relatively cooler
conditions with highs in the lower 70s to lower 80s both days. A
couple 500 mb shortwave troughs traversing the Southeast will
support scattered to widespread showers CWA-wide on Thursday, but
as the wedge builds in from the northeast, instability will be
focused across the western and southern portions of the CWA. As a
result, expect this to be the general area where surface-based
thunderstorms are most likely. Across the rest of the CWA, storms
will more likely be elevated. PoPs are essentially zero on Friday
as the aforementioned shortwaves shift eastward, placing the CWA
beneath upper-level flow that favors subsidence and drying.

Saturday through Monday: A progressive upper-level pattern is
expected this weekend into early next week. A low pressure system
tracking across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday
will drive a cold front into the CWA, supporting scattered showers
and storms. The upper-level flow will become quasi-zonal Sunday
and Monday with 500 mb vort maxes and diurnally-driven
destabilization supporting slight chance to chance PoPs both days.
Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal -- highs in
the upper 70s to mid-80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid-60s. QPF
is somewhat tricky given the relatively unpredictable nature of
the aforementioned weak disturbances and resulting convection. For
now, expecting day 1-7 rainfall accumulations of 0.5" to 1.0"
CWA-wide with isolated greater amounts.

There is no strong signal for widespread severe weather across
north and central Georgia through the long term period, but
diurnally-driven convection may produce isolated strong storms
with gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

Cigs have largely improved to VFR with SCT/BKN 3500-5000 ft
expected through the afternoon. The primary forecast challenge
through this evening will be the timing of potential shra/tsra.
Initial sct shra/tsra are developing at this hour and expected to
continue development into afternoon. Most likely time frame to
affect ATL/AHN area sites is expected to be 22-02Z, though some
potential for convection to arrive or persist after 02Z remains
possible. Cigs are expected to deteriorate to MVFR and potentially
IFR by 09-12Z with gradual improvement after 15Z. Winds will
remain W to NW at 5-10 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence on shra/tsra timing.
Medium confidence on morning cigs.
High confidence on winds.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  83  62  71 /  30  50  40  50
Atlanta         67  81  63  72 /  40  40  30  60
Blairsville     60  79  57  72 /  60  30  10  40
Cartersville    64  81  62  75 /  60  30  10  60
Columbus        67  85  65  81 /  40  60  40  80
Gainesville     66  83  62  71 /  40  40  20  50
Macon           68  85  65  75 /  20  60  40  80
Rome            65  82  61  77 /  60  30  10  60
Peachtree City  65  81  62  73 /  40  60  30  70
Vidalia         70  88  67  76 /  10  60  50  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1135 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-171545-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1135 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

The portion of the forecast area along and north of I-20 has a
Marginal Risk (1 on a 0-5 scale) for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Several rounds of storms will bring a
threat for damaging wind gusts, localized heavy rainfall, and
frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms are forecast
each day Wednesday through Monday. Isolated severe storms will be
possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
510 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

GAZ031-042>044-162145-
Douglas GA-Carroll GA-Paulding GA-South Fulton GA-
510 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Paulding, northeastern Carroll and Douglas Counties through 545 PM
EDT...

At 510 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Treasure Lake, or 10
miles northeast of Carrollton, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Douglasville, Villa Rica, Hiram, Winston, Lake Val-Do-Mar, Treasure
Lake, Hannah, Brownsville, New Georgia, Bill Arp and Fairplay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3364 8504 3376 8496 3385 8496 3388 8484
      3388 8473 3361 8473 3354 8487
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 287DEG 19KT 3368 8494

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
522 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

GAZ032-033-043>045-055-057-162145-
North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Cobb GA-Clayton GA-DeKalb GA-Henry GA-
South Fulton GA-
522 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of DeKalb, southern
Cobb, northeastern Douglas, northwestern Henry, southwestern Fulton
and northern Clayton Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 522 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over West End, or over
Atlanta, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Marietta, Douglasville, Decatur, Jonesboro, City of South
Fulton, Sandy Springs, Smyrna, Dunwoody, East Point, Stockbridge,
Union City, Forest Park, Riverdale, College Park, Powder Springs,
Fairburn, Chamblee, Doraville and Clarkston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3379 8472 3388 8472 3395 8446 3392 8426
      3387 8420 3384 8415 3367 8418 3355 8422
      3354 8436 3361 8473 3379 8474
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 287DEG 19KT 3375 8440

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
530 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

GAZ104-162215-
Sumter GA-
530 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Sumter
County through 615 PM EDT...

At 530 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Americus, moving east
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Americus, Plains, Sumter, Maddox, Methvins, New Era and Huntington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3200 8443 3217 8434 3217 8431 3212 8401
      3211 8400 3191 8417 3191 8418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 288DEG 7KT 3206 8426

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
534 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

GAZ042-044-052>054-066-067-162200-
Fayette GA-Coweta GA-Carroll GA-Troup GA-Heard GA-Meriwether GA-
South Fulton GA-
534 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Fayette,
northwestern Meriwether, southeastern Carroll, Heard, Troup, Coweta
and southwestern Fulton Counties through 600 PM EDT...

At 534 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Seaton Lake to Standing Rock, and moving east at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Newnan, LaGrange, Carrollton, Franklin, City of South Fulton,
Peachtree City, Union City, Fairburn, Tyrone, Palmetto, Hogansville,
Grantville, Luthersville, Whitesburg, Ephesus, Centralhatchee,
Moreland, Sharpsburg, Roopville and Lone Oak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3360 8497 3354 8487 3361 8473 3357 8451
      3298 8485 3288 8519 3345 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 264DEG 35KT 3353 8496 3307 8527

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
537 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

GAZ032>034-045-162200-
North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-
537 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern DeKalb,
northeastern Cobb, west central Gwinnett and northeastern Fulton
Counties through 600 PM EDT...

At 537 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Sandy Plains, or near
Mountain Park, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marietta, Peachtree Corners, Mountain Park, Sandy Springs, Roswell,
Alpharetta, Dunwoody, Milton, Doraville, Mount Bethel, White Water
Park, Mechanicsville and Sandy Plains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3413 8426 3411 8426 3410 8423 3410 8421
      3407 8417 3391 8425 3395 8447 3392 8452
      3402 8453 3408 8443 3407 8442 3408 8442
      3415 8429
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 241DEG 12KT 3400 8445

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
542 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

GAZ034-045>048-162230-
Walton GA-Rockdale GA-DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-Newton GA-
542 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Rockdale,
southeastern DeKalb, southeastern Gwinnett, central Walton and north
central Newton Counties through 630 PM EDT...

At 542 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Snellville, or near
Lawrenceville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceville, Conyers, Monroe, Snellville, Loganville, Grayson,
Lithonia, Walnut Grove, Between, Jersey, Lakeview Estates, Georgia
International Horse Park, Mountain Park, Windsor, Nicholasville,
Arabia Mountain, Big Haynes Creek Park, Rosebud, Bold Springs and
Milstead.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 8376 3389 8376 3390 8374 3386 8358
      3364 8389 3361 8417 3363 8418 3384 8415
      3397 8402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 295DEG 20KT 3385 8398

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH