Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
318 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

A cloud deck in place over much of north and west Georgia allowed
for the development of a differential heating boundary to the south
of the Atlanta metro area, along which convection has begun to
develop over the last hour. Temperatures this afternoon have
increased into the mid 80s in north and west Georgia and into the
upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere across the forecast area. With a
moist airmass in place, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s,
SBCAPE values are being progged at over 3000 J/kg to the south of
the Atlanta metro area. Additions thunderstorms have begun to
develop over the mountains in portions of far north Georgia as well.
Mid-level lapse rates in the morning sounding were near 7.5 C/km, as
well. Considering the aforementioned instability values and these
lapse rates, some storms could become strong to severe, capable of
producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms are anticipated
to move slowly southeastward over the next few hours as a cold front
pushes towards north Georgia. Storms will diminish after sunset
with the loss of daytime heating.

The weakening cold front will advance through the forecast area
during the overnight hours before stalling across the southern
portion of the forecast area tomorrow. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure over the Midwest will move eastward towards New England,
with a CAD wedge developing along the lee side of the Appalachians
and spreading into northeast Georgia. After starting the morning in
the low 60s in north Georgia and mid 60s in central Georgia,
afternoon highs are expected to be in the low 80s in northeast
Georgia and mid to upper 80s elsewhere across the forecast area.
While north Georgia will remain dry as northwesterly mid-level flow
spreads over the area, the frontal boundary will provide a focus for
diurnally-driven thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. An isolated storm
along and south of the boundary could become strong, capable of
producing gusty winds.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

As the upper level ridge axis progresses eastward and the surface
high pressure continues to strengthen along the Appalachians,
conditions across eastern Georgia are expected to remain relatively
dry Thursday. However, a stalled frontal boundary that will
linger through Friday across southwestern Georgia will serve as
the impetus for isolated storm development across western and
central Georgia. As a low pressure system across the Northern
Plains develops over the weekend, a plume of moisture will be
advected from the Gulf of Mexico over the forecast area. Diurnally
driven isolated showers and thunderstorms could be possible over
the weekend, especially across north Georgia. The next potential
wave of scattered active weather will occur at the beginning of
the work week where a shortwave traverses the Great Lakes Region.
While models are generally in good agreement over this system,
have limited PoPs to chance for now. Maximum daytime temperatures
in the long term forecast period will start off in the upper 70s
and mid 80s that will trend warmer throughout the long term into
the upper 80s and low 90s.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

A low cloud deck that developed over west Georgia has been slow to
lift and erode, and scattered MVFR clouds remain near the ATL
sites, as a result. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
continue through the remainder of the day. Convection appears to
be getting started along an axis to the south of the metro area.
At this time, coverage of TSRA are still expected to be too low
to include a TEMPO, but VCSH has been maintained at ATL through
the afternoon. Winds will be W to NW at 5-10 kts until shifting to
NE after 08Z. Scattered MVFR level clouds will once again be
possible in the early morning hours at ATL, roughly from 10-15Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  81  58  82 /  10  10   0  10
Atlanta         64  83  62  82 /  20  10  10  10
Blairsville     55  78  54  77 /  10  10  10  10
Cartersville    61  84  60  82 /  20  10  10  20
Columbus        66  89  64  83 /  10  40  30  30
Gainesville     62  80  58  80 /  10  10  10  10
Macon           65  86  62  84 /  10  20  20  20
Rome            61  85  61  83 /  30  10  10  20
Peachtree City  63  85  61  83 /  20  20  20  20
Vidalia         67  85  61  85 /  10  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
321 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101930-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
321 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible. The
primary thunderstorm hazards will be gusty winds, hail, and
frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

A summer-like pattern will support several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Predicting the
exact timing and areal extent of the storms is difficult at this
time. Some storms will be capable of heavy rain, brief strong
winds, and cloud-to- ground lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
505 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

GAZ021-022-033-092130-
North Fulton GA-Cherokee GA-Forsyth GA-
505 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Cherokee, southwestern Forsyth and northeastern Fulton Counties
through 530 PM EDT...

At 504 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Milton, or 8 miles
northeast of Mountain Park, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, nickel sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Alpharetta, Milton, Holbrook and Birmingham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3415 8442 3424 8430 3415 8414 3405 8423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 298DEG 15KT 3416 8429

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
509 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

GAZ036>038-092145-
Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-Oconee GA-
509 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Oconee,
Clarke and west central Oglethorpe Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 509 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Athens-Clarke County,
or over Athens, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Athens, Winterville, Arnoldsville, Athens-Clarke County, Whitehall,
James Holland Youth Sports Cmpx, Dunlap, State Botanical Garden Of
Ga, Beechwood Hills, Oconee Heights, Barnett Shoals and Barretts
Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 8352 3403 8335 3390 8318 3382 8331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 305DEG 27KT 3395 8336

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
511 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

GAZ020-092145-
Bartow GA-
511 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Bartow
County through 545 PM EDT...

At 511 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Cartersville, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, nickel sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cartersville, Emerson, George Washington Carver St Pk and Red Top
Mountain State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3427 8475 3414 8466 3408 8466 3409 8482
      3421 8488
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 330DEG 19KT 3420 8479

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
515 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

GAZ078-089-092200-
Harris GA-Muscogee GA-
515 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Muscogee and
southwestern Harris Counties through 600 PM EDT...

At 515 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Goat Rock Lake, or near
Smiths, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Bibb City, Goat Rock Lake, Saint Marys Hills, Edgewood,
Highland Park, Laurel Hills, Green Island Hills, Sand Hill, Battle
Park, Vista Terrace, Columbus Metropolitan Airport, Rose Hill,
Kenwood, Custer Road Terrace, Benning Hills, Avondale, Benning Park
and Carter Acres.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3267 8500 3245 8480 3237 8495 3238 8499
      3239 8498 3239 8497 3241 8498 3242 8496
      3244 8497 3245 8500 3252 8500 3258 8507
      3262 8509 3263 8508 3264 8510
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 330DEG 19KT 3261 8502

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
536 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

GAZ083-084-096-097-092200-
Wilkinson GA-Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Twiggs GA-
536 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Laurens, south central Wilkinson, east central Twiggs and
northeastern Bleckley Counties through 600 PM EDT...

At 535 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Allentown, or 10 miles
southeast of Jeffersonville, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dudley, Danville, Montrose, Allentown, Goldsboro and Rebie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3261 8331 3270 8313 3252 8302 3245 8317
      3245 8318 3244 8318 3243 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 326DEG 12KT 3260 8319

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
550 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

GAZ019-092215-
Floyd GA-
550 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Floyd
County through 615 PM EDT...

At 549 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Rome, moving southeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, nickel sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rome, Shannon and Lindale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 8508 3417 8504 3415 8505 3413 8518
      3427 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 329DEG 14KT 3427 8514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH