Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

778 
WWUS54 KEWX 202349
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
649 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

TXC171-299-202359-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-230421T0015Z/
Gillespie TX-Llano TX-
649 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN GILLESPIE AND
SOUTHWESTERN LLANO COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3041 9865 3022 9929 3043 9930 3050 9910
      3050 9897 3055 9896 3061 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 247DEG 27KT 3044 9899 

$$

QUIGLEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
630 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Mostly cloudy skies and southerly winds prevail across the area
early this afternoon. Temperatures are in the lower 80s across most
locations with some shower activity noted near Bexar County and east
of the I35 corridor. Aircraft soundings from AUS show a decent cap
that remains near 725 mb and this is likely preventing deep updrafts
from occurring. However, the HRRR continues to want to strengthen
this activity later today which likely points to the cap either
eroding or surface temperatures warming beyond the point where the
cap matters. The storm environment is unstable this afternoon with
CAPE values approaching 3000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is near 30
knots which would support some severe threat if deep convection
becomes established. The main threats this afternoon would be hail
and damaging winds as helicity values are low.

The attention after the afternoon activity then focuses on a
potential line of showers and storms along a boundary to our
northwest. Morning high-res guidance shows this activity moving
through the CWA late this afternoon through the evening hours from
northwest to southeast. Guidance has shown a bit higher coverage of
activity to the west and the latest Day 1 Outlook from SPC accounts
for this with the slight risk now almost to the Rio Grande. Large
hail and damaging winds will continue to be the main risks for
severe convection. Low-level winds pick up slightly this evening,
and while we can't completely rule out a tornado or two, overall
chances are low. Rainfall amounts for most locations will average
below an inch, but some spots may pick up 1-3 inches with isolated
higher amounts. This could lead to a localized minor flooding threat
from the heavier totals.

Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will push east of the
area by 1 AM. Lows tonight will be in the 60s. There could be a few
residual showers or storms in the east tomorrow morning, but
otherwise, a dry Friday is expected with highs ranging from the
lower 80s in the northeast to the lower 90s in the southwest. Mostly
clear skies and lows in the 50s to lower 60s returns Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Synopsis: Behind Friday's departed cold front, predominantly west to
northwest flow will prevail in the mid and upper levels through the
majority of the period. Conditions will remain unsettled, with
mentionable precipitation probabilities and shower/storm mentions
remaining in the forecast through the middle portions of next week.
While each day won't feature severe thunderstorm potential, an
isolated strong to severe storm can't be ruled out from San Antonio
and points westward on Saturday. Largely southerly to southeasterly
925-850 mb flow will prevail Sunday and Monday, bringing plenty of
Gulf moisture northward atop of a cooler boundary layer under the
influence of easterly winds. This will help to drive additional
precipitation chances through the beginning of next week. An upper
disturbance is forecast to eject from the central Rocky Mountains on
Tuesday, encouraging surface cyclogenesis to our north in the Texas
Panhandle/Red River vicinity. This will place the majority of South-
Central Texas to the east of a sharpening dryline. The combination
of the advancing dryline and favorable forcing aloft could support
more vigorous thunderstorm development during this portion of the
period. While still six days out, it's possible that some of this
activity could become strong to severe.

Saturday: Winds will be quick to turn southeasterly behind the
Friday cold front, bringing moisture and attendant instability
quickly back into portions of the area. Guidance continues to
suggest that the greatest instability will pool over our
southwestern zones, where as much as 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE could
materialize in the mixed layer. The combination of said instability
and sufficient shear aloft could support some better-organized
convection during the afternoon hours. It's possible that some of
said activity could reach marginally severe levels, with large hail
and damaging winds being the primary concerns. The Storm Prediction
Center thus continues to include the majority of the southern
Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, and portions of western Hill
Country (including the city of San Antonio) in a marginal (level
1/5) risk for severe weather in its day three convective outlook.

Sunday Through Monday: Thanks to continued low level moistening, and
the jet stream in place overhead, shower activity will continue.
Whether thunderstorms mix in with the showers remains uncertain. The
global ensembles disagree regarding the amount of instability
available for storms on each afternoon, with GEFS members coming in
considerably more aggressive than their ECMWF counterparts. Trends
regarding instability will need to be monitored in the coming
forecast cycles, as ample deep layer wind shear would support some
potential for stronger thunderstorms during this portion of the
period. As things currently stand, predominantly rain showers and
isolated non-severe thunderstorms are expected through this portion
of the period.

Tuesday: More robust thunderstorm activity is possible along and
east of an advancing surface dryline during the afternoon hours,
particularly as the shortwave discussed in the synopsis begins to
eject into the Southern Plains. The combination of lift provided by
the dryline/approaching wave, ample instability, and sufficient bulk
shear would likely support some strong to severe storm potential,
particularly if the best forcing arrives during peak heating. Given
uncertainties regarding said timing, it's much too early to offer
any specifics regarding potential hazards. SPC has introduced a 15%
risk area for severe thunderstorms across most of South-Central
Texas in light of this potential.

Remainder Of The Period: Isolated storms could persist across the
far northeast on Wednesday, but it appears a drying trend will begin
to establish itself by late next week/the conclusion of the long
term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Greatest aviation concerns will be with strong to severe convection
across the region from this evening into the early overnight hour. A
severe storm is approaching KSAT from the west and a line of storms
are congealing across the Hill Country and will approach the I-35
corridor, including KAUS, KSAT and KSSF later tonight. Storms will
remain capable of hail, strong winds, heavy rain and frequent cloud-
to-ground lightning. Storms will likely lead to lowered visibility
and ceilings as well into the IFR to MVFR range. Highlighted a tempo
group for when the heaviest storms are expected to impact the TAF
sites. As storms have moved out of the area, winds will turn out of
the north with moderate to breezy winds following in wake of the
boundary. Additionally, expect for ceilings at the I-35 TAF sites to
lower through the overnight into early Friday morning to the MVFR
to VFR range. Conditions will improve to VFR into Thursday afternoon
with clearing skies.

KDRT will remain VFR through most of the night with all the storms
remaining farther to the east. MVFR ceilings develop late overnight
into Friday morning before conditions return to VFR into Monday
afternoon with clearing skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  82  54  80 /  80  20   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  81  53  78 /  70  20   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  84  55  81 /  70  10   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            62  79  52  78 /  80  10   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           68  91  61  89 /  10   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        62  79  52  77 /  90  20   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             66  86  56  81 /  40  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  82  54  79 /  70  10   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  79  53  78 /  70  20   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       67  84  57  80 /  70  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           68  86  58  82 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...Quigley
Long-Term...29
Aviation...Brady

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
232 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-211945-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
232 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across all of south central
Texas this afternoon and evening, especially from the Hill Country
eastward through the Interstate 35 corridor and across the
coastal plains. While large hail and damaging winds gusts are
favored, a tornado can't be ruled out.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for most of the area
through 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Friday afternoon
across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains due to
gusty north winds and low humidity.

A few strong storms remain possible across the Rio Grande plains
and southern Edwards Plateau Saturday afternoon. Large hail is the
primary severe weather concern at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
552 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

TXZ172-173-202330-
Williamson TX-Burnet TX-
552 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Williamson
and northeastern Burnet Counties through 630 PM CDT...

At 552 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bertram to near Andice to near Bartlett.
Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Burnet, Granger, Bertram, Serenada, Bartlett, Liberty
Hill, Jarrell, Florence, Weir, Georgetown Dam, Watson, Granger Dam,
Lake Victor, Joppa, Andice, Shady Grove, Oatmeal, Briggs and Sun
City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 9783 3087 9762 3074 9727 3071 9727
      3063 9764 3064 9830 3103 9820 3104 9791
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 309DEG 15KT 3076 9813 3077 9780 3084 9746

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

QUIGLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
557 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             1 E WILLOW CITY         30.40N 98.69W
04/20/2023  E1.00 INCH       GILLESPIE          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL EAST OF WILLOW CITY.

&&

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
601 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HAIL             3 NNE FREDERICKSBURG    30.30N 98.85W
04/20/2023  E1.25 INCH       GILLESPIE          TX   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL NEAR FREDERICKSBURG.

&&

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
622 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             1 NW FREDERICKSBURG     30.28N 98.88W
04/20/2023  U1.00 INCH       GILLESPIE          TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             BURNET                  30.76N 98.24W
04/20/2023  U1.00 INCH       BURNET             TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
624 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             BURNET                  30.76N 98.23W
04/20/2023  E1.00 INCH       BURNET             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN BURNET.

&&

BF