Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1212 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Cloudy conditions with breezy southerly flow continues this
afternoon. The large area of light rain and drizzle will continue to
shift east through the remainder of the day as the low-level lift
responsible for the activity also shifts east. Temperatures are
currently in the 70s and low 80s for most locations and should top
out later this afternoon in the 80s for much of the area. All eyes
will point to the northwest this evening as a cold front advances
southward. This front is expected to enter the northern counties
around 9-10 PM. There should be a broken line of showers and storms
along this boundary as it advances south through the CWA overnight.
CAPE values near 1500-2000 J/kg and adequate shear should support
the threat of strong to severe storms with this activity. The latest
Day 1 Outlook from The Storm Prediction Center continues with the
slight risk for most of the area and this is very reasonable. The
main threat with any activity will be straight-line winds and large
hail. Can't completely rule out an isolated tornado, but with the
low-level jet shifting east, weak westerly winds at 850 will limit
the threat when the front arrives. Scattered post-frontal rainfall
will likely continue through the night before ending around sunrise
tomorrow. The main issue behind the front will be strong northerly
winds. Sustained speeds will be near 20-30 mph with higher gusts and
a Wind Advisory has been issued.

Behind the front on Friday, temperatures will be much cooler with
highs in the 50s to near 60. Another weak disturbance will bring a
decent coverage of mid-level lift to the area. High-res models
continue to show a large area of precipitation developing in the mid-
levels from this lift. Forecast soundings initially show dry air in
the low-levels with large surface dewpoint depressions. However with
cold air aloft, the precipitation will develop as snow and remain
snow as it falls towards the surface until it encounters warmer air.
Expect melting to rain to occur initially over the entire are, but
with the large dewpoint depressions, wetbulb temperatures will
likely be in the middle 30s for much of the Hill Country. If the
precipitation is heavy enough, moistening of the dry layer can be
expected and temperatures would theoretically fall to these wetbulb
temperatures or perhaps a degree or two colder with dynamical
cooling. Will expand the mention of the rain/snow mix Friday night
to be near the 36 degree wetbulb temperature of the GFS. Erring on
the side of the caution as the HRRR/NSSL WRF are a bit colder. This
places the rain snow mix west of a line from northern Val Verde
County eastward into Bandera County, Kendall County, and Llano
County. With temperatures likely remaining above freezing, not
expecting many issues other than some temporary minor accumulations
possible on elevated/grassy surfaces. No products are needed for
this at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Precipitation will be ongoing at the start of the long term period.
Temperature profiles suggest a rain and snow mix over the western
Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. We still don't expect any
significant impacts with only minor accumulations possible on
elevated/grassy surfaces. The upper level pattern will be a broad
trough over the southern part of the country during the weekend and
early next week. A number of shortwave troughs will move through this
pattern keeping our weather unsettled. Saturday and Sunday there will
be a good chance for rain over the Rio Grande Plains with lower
chances to the east. Low rain chances will continue through Tuesday.
Tuesday night the low level flow will turn back to the southeast
bringing a warm, moist airmass. Isentropic lift in this flow regime
will produce low chances for rain over the eastern half of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Cold front diving southwards across south central Texas with showers
and isolated thunderstorms to start off the 06z TAF cycle. This front
has already gone through KAUS, KSAT, and KDRT. This front should
clear KSSF at or just before 06z. Over-running showers behind the
front are expected to persist through 09z for most terminals with
KAUS having the potential to be the first terminal to see an end to
precip just after 09z. KSAT, KDRT, and KSSF will have to wait until
closer to 12z before seeing some reprieve from precip chances.
Outside of precip concerns, a window of prolonged 30 to 39kt wind
gusts post frontal will be possible through 15z Friday before the
surface pressure gradient weakens sufficiently to allow winds to
drop back below 15kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              43  57  40  56 /  80  40  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  41  56  39  55 /  80  40  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     44  58  39  53 /  90  40  30  40
Burnet Muni Airport            40  55  38  55 /  50  20  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           49  61  41  49 /  70  20  70  70
Georgetown Muni Airport        40  56  39  55 /  70  40  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             45  58  37  50 /  70  30  50  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        43  56  39  53 /  90  40  30  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   43  54  41  53 /  90  50  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       44  58  40  52 /  80  30  40  50
Stinson Muni Airport           46  58  40  52 /  80  40  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until noon CDT Friday for Atascosa-Bandera-Bastrop-
Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Edwards-Fayette-
Frio-Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-
Lavaca-Lee-Llano-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-
Wilson-Zavala.

&&

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...05
Aviation...CM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
250 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-172000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
250 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected today through
tonight as a dryline and cold front move across our area. Severe
storms are possible across all of South Central Texas, including
the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, I-35 corridor, Rio Grande and
Coastal Plains. The primary threats will be large hail and
isolated damaging wind gusts this afternoon, then damaging wind
gusts and isolated large hail this evening into tonight. Cannot
rule out an isolated tornado or two. Heavy downpours can also be
expected with the stronger storms.

Strong northerly winds will surge in behind the cold front later
this evening through Friday morning. Sustained winds of 20 to 30
mph and gusts of 35 to 50 mph are expected. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for tonight for most of South-Central Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong northerly winds will linger Friday morning. Sustained
winds of 20 to 30 MPH and gusts of 35 to 45 mph are expected. A Wind
Advisory is in effect for tonight for most of South-Central
Texas through noon Friday.

A rain/snow mix is possible in the Hill Country Friday night and
Saturday morning. Minor accumulations on grassy surfaces are
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1105 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

TXZ184-185-202-170445-
Kinney TX-Edwards TX-Real TX-
1105 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Kinney,
south central Edwards and southwestern Real Counties through 1145 PM
CDT...

At 1105 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Camp Wood, or 24 miles northeast of Brackettville,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Camp Wood, Vance and Barksdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2969 9975 2962 9993 2962 10011 2956 10011
      2952 10021 2963 10028 2990 9990
TIME...MOT...LOC 0405Z 241DEG 30KT 2961 10018

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

QUIGLEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1123 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

TXZ209-170500-
Fayette TX-
1123 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Fayette
County through MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1122 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Round Top, or 13 miles northeast of La Grange, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
La Grange, Fayetteville, Round Top, Carmine, Rutersville, Warrenton,
Ledbetter, Waldeck, Rabbs Prairie, Ellinger, Walhalla, Willow
Springs, Winedale, Rek Hill, Mullins Prairie and Nechanitz.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2979 9672 2987 9695 3016 9679 3014 9677
      3015 9671 3016 9669 3015 9668 3015 9665
      3012 9664 3008 9663 3006 9662 3004 9662
      2996 9657
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 278DEG 32KT 3002 9669

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1130 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

TXZ183-184-202-170515-
Kinney TX-Val Verde TX-Edwards TX-
1130 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Kinney,
southwestern Edwards and east central Val Verde Counties through 1215
AM CDT...

At 1130 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles southwest of Carta Valley to 15 miles
northeast of Long Point to 13 miles north of Laughlin AFB to 7 miles
north of Amanda. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Carta Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3000 10064 2996 10050 2987 10043 2972 10040
      2935 10072 2948 10075 2954 10078 2963 10089
TIME...MOT...LOC 0430Z 216DEG 34KT 2964 10079 2960 10074 2954 10071
2948 10069

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

QUIGLEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1146 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

TXZ193-207>209-223-170530-
Guadalupe TX-Caldwell TX-Bastrop TX-Fayette TX-Gonzales TX-
1146 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Caldwell,
northeastern Guadalupe, southwestern Bastrop, northern Gonzales and
southwestern Fayette Counties through 1230 AM CDT...

At 1145 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Luling, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
New Braunfels, Seguin, Lockhart, Gonzales, Luling, Flatonia,
McQueeney, Waelder, Kingsbury, Staples, Muldoon, Fentress, Cistern,
Palmeto State Park, Geronimo, Rosanky, Brownsboro, Delhi, Joliet and
Rockne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2965 9810 3002 9749 2981 9699 2936 9744
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 297DEG 26KT 2970 9764

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1200 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

TXZ217-170545-
Maverick TX-
1200 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Maverick
County through 1245 AM CDT...

At 1200 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Radar Base, or 9 miles west of Eagle Pass, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eagle Pass, Chula Vista, Rosita, Siesta Acres, Eidson Road, Fabrica,
Elm Creek, Las Quintas Fronterizas and Seco Mines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2860 10043 2861 10045 2864 10045 2864 10046
      2866 10050 2871 10051 2874 10051 2876 10053
      2880 10053 2883 10055 2883 10058 2884 10058
      2880 10028 2857 10035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 280DEG 25KT 2876 10064

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

QUIGLEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1236 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

TXZ204-205-219-220-170615-
Frio TX-Bexar TX-Atascosa TX-Medina TX-
1236 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Medina,
northern Frio, northwestern Atascosa and southwestern Bexar Counties
through 115 AM CDT...

At 1235 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Biry, or near Devine, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Devine, Castroville, Lytle, Somerset, Natalia, Lacoste, North
Pearsall, Moore, Noonan, Dunlay, Pearson, Sea World, Bader, Bluff,
Bigfoot, Biry, Yancey, Frio Town, Von Ormy and Iuka.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2886 9934 2905 9942 2923 9941 2947 9870
      2908 9853
TIME...MOT...LOC 0535Z 257DEG 35KT 2918 9901

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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