Severe Thunderstorm Warning 313, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
705 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: At 500mb south-central Texas remains in the
northeastern periphery of a ridge with zonal/westerly flow across
the northern portion of the state. A shortwave, currently across the
Panhandle, will quickly move into north and northeast Texas this
afternoon, which will interact with a slow moving cold front at the
surface. This cold front currently extends along a SW to NE line
from just south of KFST to near KLUD. To the south of this boundary,
rapid destabilization has been ongoing late this morning/early this
afternoon with further destabilization forecast to occur through
peak heating. High temperatures of around 100F and dewpoints
generally from 65-70F should lead to 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE across
the forecast area according to SPC Mesoanalysis. Given the proximity
of the ridge to the southwest, shear will be modest, yet sufficient
in the 25-35 kt range later this afternoon with the help of the
aforementioned shortwave. One of the main factors leading to some
forecast uncertainty this afternoon is the presence of weak
CINH/capping. ACARS Soundings out of KAUS have shown this cap around
850mb slowly weakening over the last couple of hours, though it
still remains as of 1815Z. Given the lack of cloud cover across the
region, intense heating is likely to erode the cap by mid-afternoon
across most areas, but as the sun begins to set CINH is expected to
quickly increase again.

This afternoon-overnight: Eyes will be on the northern Hill Country
for initial storm development late this afternoon/early evening,
though a few storms will be possible across the Edwards Plateau and
northern Mexico as well. Storm movement will likely be slow to the
SE through the remainder of the evening before activity begins to
wane by 06z. However, isolated activity continuing overnight cannot
be ruled out across portions of the Hill County/I-35 corridor as the
front and lingering outflow boundaries continue to slowly push
south. There remains a Level 2/5 risk for severe thunderstorms with
this activity, with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the
main threats due to the unstable atmosphere. Tornadoes are not
expected due to small hodographs and weak flow near the front. Heavy
rain will be possible as well with the strongest cells as PWATs will
be near 1.8". While the ongoing drought will greatly limit the
threat for flooding, there is a Level 1/4 risk for excessive
rainfall/flash flooding. Both of these risks are generally across
the northern half of the forecast area.

Tomorrow-tomorrow night: The front will continue into central and
southern portions of the forecast area by tomorrow afternoon. As
destabilization occurs with diurnal heating, widely scattered
thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along and south of the
surface boundary. Increased cloud cover both from the front itself
and today and tonight's convection will limit instability tomorrow
compared to today, but the atmosphere will still be unstable enough
to pose a more isolated risk for severe weather (wind and hail). The
level 1/4 risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding will continue
as well. Activity should once again wane through the late
evening/overnight hours with potential for continued isolated
activity, mainly across the western portion of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

A broad, weak upper trough axis will be centered to our east to
start the long term period on Tuesday morning, and it's likely that
any remaining sfc cold front will have been pushed to our south by
rounds of convection today and tomorrow. No well-defined upper level
or surface features are forecast the rest of the week in our region.
Although isolated lingering showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will
be possible Tuesday into Wednesday, most locations will remain dry.
Low-end rain chances will return to the Coastal Plains late this
week into the weekend, but rainfall amounts in the long term will be
paltry at best. The expectation is for cooler, but still above
normal temperatures to prevail Tuesday through the rest of the week.
Highs will be mainly in the 90s, with lows in the 60s to lower 70s,
ticking back upwards towards next weekend. Above normal temperatures
will continue into the first week of October.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Convection continues to develop over the Hill Country with some slow
movement toward the I-35 noted. We have pushed back the timing for
the TEMPO group for TSRA at AUS and have opted for only VCTS at SAT
and SSF this evening. Other changes at AUS include a brief mention of
MVFR cigs between 11-15Z. For tomorrow afternoon, convection chances
appear favored from the southern Edwards Plateau, western Hill
Country and Rio Grande plains. We will mention PROB30 groups at SAT
and SSF with VCTS at DRT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Record High Temperatures and year last reached:

9/23
AUS - 101 (2005)
ATT - 99 (2011)
SAT - 102 (2005)
DRT - 103 (2005)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  95  72  93 /  40  30  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  95  72  93 /  30  30  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  98  73  95 /  20  40  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            74  93  70  91 /  50  20  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 100  75  96 /  20  30  50  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  93  71  92 /  50  30  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             74  97  73  94 /  20  40  30  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  96  71  94 /  20  40  20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  93  73  91 /  30  40  30  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  96  74  94 /  20  40  30  20
Stinson Muni Airport           78  98  75  96 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-
Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-
Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Medina-Travis-Uvalde-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...Platt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
523 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-252230-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
523 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A slight (level 2/5) risk continues this evening over portions of
Hill Country and the I-35 Corridor, where scattered storms have
begun to develop. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued by
the Storm Prediction Center through 11 PM for Blanco, Burnet,
Gillespie, Llano, and Williamson Counties. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards in any severe storms.
Have multiple ways of receiving warning information over this
portion of South-Central Texas this evening.

Dangerous heat & humidity will continue through early evening
along/east of I-35 and over portions of the southern Edwards
Plateau. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area
on Monday afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and hail
will be possible in this activity. A marginal (level 1/5) risk for
severe thunderstorms continues over most of the area given this
potential, in addition to a marginal (level 1/4) risk for
excessive rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
548 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

TXZ171-172-188-190-242330-
Blanco TX-Gillespie TX-Llano TX-Burnet TX-
548 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Blanco,
Gillespie, Llano and Burnet Counties through 630 PM CDT...

At 548 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Lampasas to Tow to near Stolz
to Oxford to 6 miles northeast of Tivydale. Movement was east at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Burnet, Marble Falls, Kingsland, Llano, Round
Mountain, Buchanan Dam, Gainesville, Granite Shoals, Horseshoe Bay,
Meadowlakes, Buchanan Lake Village, Stonewall, Highland Haven, Inks
Lake State Park, Blowout, Watson, Bluffton, Rocky Hill, and Lake
Victor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3031 9834 3016 9885 3032 9915 3092 9853
      3093 9842 3094 9841 3095 9845 3096 9845
      3098 9844 3100 9845 3103 9842 3104 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 292DEG 12KT 3109 9830 3092 9845 3075 9858 3060
9868 3033 9905

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
624 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

TXZ171-172-188-190-250015-
Blanco TX-Gillespie TX-Llano TX-Burnet TX-
624 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Blanco,
eastern Gillespie, southeastern Llano and southern Burnet Counties
through 715 PM CDT...

At 623 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Burnet to 6 miles
southwest of Kingsland to Enchanted Rock State Natural Area to 6
miles west of Fredericksburg. Movement was east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Burnet, Marble Falls, Kingsland, Llano, Bertram,
Round Mountain, Buchanan Dam, Gainesville, Granite Shoals, Horseshoe
Bay, Johnson City, Meadowlakes, Buchanan Lake Village, Stonewall,
Highland Haven, Inks Lake State Park, Blowout, Bluffton, and Rocky
Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3088 9795 3018 9835 3014 9876 3014 9884
      3027 9910 3065 9879 3088 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 287DEG 10KT 3082 9830 3059 9850 3051 9879 3026
9898

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CP

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
651 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

TXZ172-173-250030-
Williamson TX-Burnet TX-
651 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Williamson and northeastern Burnet Counties through 730 PM CDT...

At 651 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Briggs, or 9 miles south of Copperas Cove, moving southeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Watson, Andice, and Briggs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 9790 3091 9783 3090 9777 3088 9767
      3086 9764 3074 9782 3095 9805 3104 9796
      3103 9791
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 317DEG 15KT 3097 9791

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
658 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

TXZ188-250045-
Gillespie TX-
658 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Gillespie
County through 745 PM CDT...

At 658 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cherry Spring, or 12 miles northwest of Fredericksburg, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Cherry Spring, and Doss.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3032 9871 3014 9894 3043 9918 3050 9910
      3050 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 311DEG 14KT 3041 9901

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
705 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

TXZ190-250045-
Blanco TX-
705 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Blanco
County through 745 PM CDT...

At 704 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sandy, or near Round Mountain, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Round Mountain, Johnson City, Sandy, and Pedernales Falls State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3034 9857 3048 9844 3034 9819 3009 9836
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 312DEG 12KT 3037 9845

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CP