Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

328 
WWUS54 KEWX 282232
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
532 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

TXC021-287-453-491-282300-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-230428T2300Z/
Williamson TX-Travis TX-Bastrop TX-Lee TX-
532 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON...SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS...NORTHWESTERN
BASTROP AND NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES...

At 532 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Manor, or near
Pflugerville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, Pflugerville, Elgin, Lexington, Tanglewood Forest, Austin
Bergstrom Int Airport, Manor, Rollingwood, Mustang Ridge, Bear Creek,
Tanglewood, Coupland, Shady Hollow, Onion Creek, Wyldwood, Hornsby
Bend, Manchaca, Sunset Valley, San Leanna and Webberville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Austin San Antonio.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3005 9763 3007 9766 3002 9771 3019 9794
      3060 9721 3046 9715 3056 9697 3054 9692
      3051 9690 3046 9689
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 300DEG 21KT 3038 9751 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
236 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170 IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for all areas outside of
Val Verde and Edwards Counties until 9 PM this evening. Severe
thunderstorms have erupted near a dryline/surface low/warm front
intersection just to our north, and are expected to continue
developing south and west into our Hill Country counties over the
next couple of hours. Large (>1"/quarter size) to very large
(>2"/lime size) hail will be of high concern as storms first develop,
with damaging straight line winds ranging from 60 to 75 MPH becoming
the predominant threat as storms begin to swiftly merge into a line.
While secondary to the large hail and damaging wind potential,
isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out. Activity will likely move
over the I-35 Corridor during the evening rush. Those with essential
travel plans should be prepared to seek immediate safe shelter if
storms begin to approach. Never ride out severe thunderstorms in a
vehicle.

We are also monitoring deepening cumulus and thundershower activity
to the west of the Rio Grande River in Maverick County. Several
lightning flashes have been detected by satellite in this activity.
Like the storms to our north, large hail and damaging winds will be
the primary concerns in these cells. An isolated tornado can't be
ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

...Key Messages...

* A line of storms will develop across the Hill Country by around
  4PM, move eastward across the I-35 corridor between 6-8PM, and
  into the Coastal Plains from 8PM-11PM.
* There is a level 3 of 5 risk for severe storms along this line.
  Scattered to numerous instances of damaging straight-line wind
  gusts and large to very large hail  possible. Isolated tornado
  also possible.
* While the speed of the system will prevent a widespread heavy
  rainfall threat, some isolated pockets of quick flooding are
  possible near and east of I-35 where more intense rainfall rates
  could occur.
* Remain weather aware this afternoon and evening. Given the
  potential timing of storms during the late afternoon into the
  Friday evening commute, those with travel plans should pay close
  attention to the radar and any potential watches and warnings.

The morning low stratus and patchy fog with the ongoing moisture
advection has mixed out into the afternoon with mostly sunny skies
now across the region. Temperatures have quickly warmed and will
continue to do so through the mid-afternoon. This will continue to
aid in the atmosphere becoming increasingly unstable ahead of the
approach of a strong front and the potent parent upper level low
pressure system. This will lead into the risk for severe storms
that is highlighted below.

Some discrete convection remains on target to develop just to the
north of the region starting mid-afternoon, near a triple point and
south along a dryline. The CAMs remain in strong agreement that
convection will unzip southwest into the Hill Country late afternoon
and eventually into an MCS near the I-35 corridor early this
evening, where a strong pool of instability resides. With steep
elevated lapse rates overspreading the region, MLCAPE values are
indicated to be on the order of 3000-3500 J/kg, in a region of 0-6KM
bulk shear values of around 50 kt. This supports a severe threat of
initially large to very large hail where the storms first unzip late
this afternoon, transitioning to a damaging straight-line wind
threat into and to the east of the I-35 corridor. SPC highlights the
majority of the region in a level 3 of 5 (Enhanced) for severe
storms with the potential in some isolated intense storms of hail 2+
inches in diameter and bowing segments of 75+ mph or greater. The
low-level shear profiles and hodographs may also be enough to where
an isolated tornado threat may be possible as well. While this is a
lower confident hazard compared to the large hail and damaging wind
threat, it could materialize if the updraft/downdraft convergence
zone can remain balanced and any local surges take place orienting
more line-normal to the better 0-3KM bulk shear vectors. The storms
as they advance into and across the coastal plains could become
undercut by the forward propagating front and/or outflow but latest
CAM guidance has become less inclined of this happening compared to
earlier runs.

Due to the speed of the system, widespread heavy rainfall is not
expected. Nevertheless, some pockets of more intense rainfall rates
could lead to an isolated flash flooding threat near and east of the
I-35 corridor. On average, rainfall amounts west of the I-35
corridor counties is expected to remain around or less than 1/4 of
an inch. Along and east of I-35 rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 1/2
inches are forecast, with a few pockets of 2-3 inches possible east
of I-35.

Behind the cold front, windy conditions will also be expected to
develop from out of the north-northwest with gusts of 35 to 45 mph
possible this evening across the Southern Edwards Plateau and
western Hill Country this evening. A Wind Advisory will be issued
across these areas from 00Z to 06Z. Breezy conditions are expected
elsewhere from this evening into tonight before winds start to
uptick into/through Saturday morning with daytime heating. Winds
could gust again into the 35 to 45 mph range. The need for another
wind advisory will be possible across a larger portion of South-
Central for that secondary increase in winds. For locations to the
west that could miss out on tonight's wetting rains, elevated to
near critical fire weather concerns may exist given the breezy
northwesterly flow and drier air during Saturday afternoon.

Becoming much cooler from tonight into Saturday behind the front,
with overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s into the 50s and
afternoon highs ranging from the low 70s to the low 80s along the
Rio Grande. Another cool night will be in store during Saturday
night as the winds slacks off with overnight lows in the mid to
upper 40s and low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Most of the long-term portion of the forecast will be rain free as
upper level subsidence then upper level ridging moves into the
region. This should lead to drier air at the surface which should
lead to high temperatures Sunday through Wednesday in the 80s to 90s
with lows in the lower 60s making pretty nice days. Dewpoints will
pick back up Wednesday afternoon through the remainder of the
forecast period. At the same time, a couple of weak disturbances
could translate through the region bringing some low rain chances
back into the forecast. The NBM keeps everything at 20 percent or
less and see no reason to deviate from that at this point.
Otherwise, highs Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s with the higher
surface moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Low stratus and patchy fog from this morning along the I-35 TAF
sites are mixing out with flight conditions now returning to VFR
flight conditions. Our attention then turns to the risk for
convection from later this afternoon through this evening with
threat for severe weather. Storms are expected to initiate along
the cold front across Central Texas around 19-21Z and unzipper
into/across South Central Texas into a squall line along the
southward moving front. Environmental conditions will support
scattered to numerous severe storms with the hazard for straight-
line wind gusts in excess of 50 kt, large hail, and an isolated
tornado. This line of storms are currently expected to move across
the I-35 corridor and AUS/SAT around the 23Z-01Z timeframe. Few
showers may be possible behind the initial squall line otherwise
expect the development of gusty N to NW winds behind the departing
line of storms and cold front, with gusts between 20 to 30 kt
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              87  54  73  51 /  70  60   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  53  73  48 /  70  60   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     87  54  74  49 /  60  70   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            88  52  72  48 /  60  30   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  57  82  54 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        86  52  71  48 /  70  50   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             93  53  78  47 /  50  50   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  53  73  45 /  60  70   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  55  70  47 /  30  80   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       89  54  76  51 /  60  70   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           90  54  77  51 /  40  70   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Saturday for
Bandera-Edwards-Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Real-Uvalde-Val Verde.

&&

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...29
Aviation...Brady

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
228 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-291930-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
228 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch currently in effect across most of
South- Central Texas through 9 pm. Scattered to numerous severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Hill Country and
move east into the I-35 corridor between 5-8 pm, and into the
Coastal Plains from 7PM-10 pm. There is a Level 3 of 5 risk for
severe storms along this line. Scattered to numerous instances of
damaging straight- line wind gusts and large to very large hail
are possible. An isolated tornado or two is also possible.
Isolated pockets of quick flooding are possible near and east of
I-35 where more intense rainfall rates could occur.

Remain weather aware this afternoon and evening. Given the
potential timing of storms during the late afternoon into the
Friday evening commute, those with travel plans should pay close
attention to the radar and any potential watches and warnings.

Wind Advisory in effect across the Southern Edwards Plateau into
the Western Hill Country from 7 pm this evening through 1 am with
with north winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

An additional wind advisory may needed across portions of South-
Central Texas on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
446 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             3 SSW GEORGETOWN DAM    30.63N 97.74W
04/28/2023  E1.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON THE WEST SIDE
            OF GEORGETOWN.

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
447 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     HAIL             2 SSW LEANDER           30.53N 97.87W
04/28/2023  E1.00 INCH       TRAVIS             TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
448 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     HAIL             JARRELL                 30.83N 97.61W
04/28/2023  E1.75 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR JARRELL
            VIA HAM RADIO OPERATOR.

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
455 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             3 ESE GEORGETOWN        30.63N 97.63W
04/28/2023  E1.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
506 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             2 NW WINDEMERE          30.48N 97.68W
04/28/2023  E1.50 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   PUBLIC

            AT INTERSECTION OF I-35 AND TOLLWAY 45.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
507 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     HAIL             1 WSW JOLLYVILLE        30.45N 97.76W
04/28/2023  E0.70 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MB