Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

797 
WWUS84 KEWX 122351
RFWEWX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
551 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

TXZ183>185-202>204-217>220-228-130100-
/O.EXP.KEWX.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230113T0000Z/
Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kinney-Uvalde-Medina-Maverick-Zavala-Frio-
Atascosa-Dimmit-
551 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...

Winds will taper below 15 MPH this evening. The Red Flag Warning 
will thus be allowed to expire at 6 PM CST.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
523 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Winds have already shifted from the northwest across a majority of
the area shortly after midnight as a front moves across the area
overnight. A thunderstorm along the boundary popped up around 0730Z
over Bastrop County, then moved into Fayette County producing a
quick radar estimated tenth to quarter inch of precipitation before
moving east and out of the area. No further precipitation is
anticipated with this system. Significantly drier air is noted
behind this front with dew points in the teens already seen over the
Edwards Plateau. These breezy and dry conditions will continue to
move across south central Texas through the morning with cooler air
not far behind.

High temperatures this afternoon with be notably warmer than those
seen yesterday, in the 60s for areas north of I-10 and the low 70s
in the south. Gusty winds have already begun over the Edwards
Plateau and portions of the Hill Country, with northerly wind gusts
to continue through the morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph
are expected over the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, I-35 corridor,
and Coastal Plains, with locally higher gusts to 40 mph possible in
the higher terrain of the Hill Country. The combination of wind and
drier air will bring some areas of elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions, especially in the west where the lowest humidity
is expected.

Winds will begin to weaken early this evening, becoming light
overnight. Temperatures will rapidly drop through the overnight
hours with widespread low temperatures in the 30s to around 40
degrees due to clear skies and radiational cooling. Freezing
temperatures are possible over Valley locations of the Hill Country
by sunrise. Surface high pressure will be in place over south
central Texas on Friday resulting in continued clear skies and light
wind during the day. Highs will be near or slightly above seasonable
values for mid-January across the area, with highs in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

An upper level ridge will move out of the Rocky Mountain region into
the Plains Friday night. This feature will dominate our weather
through the end of the week. High pressure at the surface will move
across the northern part of our CWA Friday night and then move off to
the northeast Saturday. This will turn the low level flow to the
southeast during the day Saturday. With the high over us Friday night
low temperatures Saturday will be within a couple of degrees of
Friday morning. Most of the area see middle 30s with some higher 30s
along the Rio Grande. Highs Saturday will be from the middle 60s to
the lower 70s which will be a little above normal. The trend will be
warmer Saturday night as warmer, moister air moves in from the south.
Lows Sunday will be 10+ degrees warmer than Saturday with a similar
change in highs. You can add another five degrees for Monday when
highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. A weak cold front will
slide through Central Texas north of our CWA Monday. Models are
consistent keeping any precipitation north and east of CWA, but this
may help keep temperatures from climbing any further. Wednesday
another Pacific cold front will move through our CWA bringing low
chances for rain over the eastern half of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Winds have shifted from the north-northwest across all of south
central Texas due to a frontal passage overnight. VFR conditions are
expected at all sites over the next 24 hours. The forecast is mainly
for wind as gusty winds begin across much of the area in the next
hour or so, and continue through 00-01Z. Light winds are expected
overnight into Friday as high pressure moves over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              63  39  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  64  38  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  38  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            61  35  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           68  39  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        62  36  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             68  37  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  37  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   63  38  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       66  40  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           68  40  67  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...05
Aviation...27

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
338 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-130945-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
338 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions today for the
Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, I-35 corridor and portions
of the Coastal Plains and Rio Grande Plains due to gusty northerly
wind and low relative humidity. A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) is
issued from 8 AM to 6 PM CST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.