Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

955 
WGUS74 KEWX 041134
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
634 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

TXC171-041300-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-230604T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gillespie TX-
634 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING 
FOR NORTHWESTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY...

At 634 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated earlier thunderstorms 
produced between 2 and 4 inches of rain. Flash flooding is ongoing 
or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Doss, Cherry Spring and Harper.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Threadgill Creek, Stuckens Branch, Beaver Creek, Pedernales River, 
  Honey Creek, Rocky Creek, Swayback Creek, Crabapple Creek, Dittmar 
  Creek, Moccasin Creek, North Creek, Pecan Creek, Live Oak Creek, 
  Edwards Creek, Spring Creek, Cedar Creek, Middle Creek, Little 
  Creek, Elm Creek, Flag Creek, Onion Creek, Salt Creek, Maverick 
  Spring Branch, Falls Prong, Marschall Creek, Cherry Spring Creek, 
  Bee Cave Creek, Mormon Creek, Brushy Branch and Flores Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3050 9897 3032 9896 3032 9930 3050 9930
      3050 9928 3050 9925 3050 9924 3050 9913
      3050 9909 3050 9900

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

RUNYEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
303 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

MCV and outflow boundary dominated convection continues to defy
projections of most of the Convective Allowing Models or CAMs.
The rapid refresh model is especially concerning in that its past
few runs failed to initialize the active convective complex moving
over the Junction, San Angelo, and Abilene areas but did generate a
similarly oriented line over the Hwy 281 corridor in the mid
afternoon hours today. This solution would ignore that there was
significant convection near and east of Austin overnight that
produced another wake low effect, thus enhancing stability over this
region for several hours. For this reason, we are going to treat
this overnight convection, currently over West Central Texas, as the
convection later expected to form over the eastern Hill Country and
I-35 Corridor areas north of San Antonio by the last few hours of
the HRRR.

Given this outlook, a look at the reflectivity stamp members from
the SPC HREF pages suggests the model that appears to stand out as
the best option to be 00Z HRW NSSL. This solution would suggest more
pre-dawn convection over western counties and a higher QPF reaching
the central and western Hill Country from the morning convection
currently to the north.

The weakness in choosing this solution is that some of the NW Hill
Country QPF will not be well reflected in the current forecast, so
there is a slight disconnect from the slightly elevated rainfall
chances in the late morning period and what the official QPF might
suggest. Most of the CAMs show a relative minima of activity, so we
continue to run the highest PoPs and QPF in the afternoon, but will
message in a more NOWcast mindset of some elevated higher amounts of
QPF in the early parts of the short-term. There does still look to
be a good chance, 40-70 percent chance in the afternoon where the
HRRR highlights the heaviest rains, but we'd caution not to expect
the QPF output from the HRRR for the 18Z to 06Z window for Central
TX. our usual local favorite, the Tech WRF, is depicting a similar
picture as the HRRR, so hopefully the 06Z run will do a better job
for us later in the morning.

In any event, going into to the 2nd and 3rd periods of the short
term, the rain activity early this morning the next rounds for late
this afternoon and evening appear to be showing up in the CAMs as a
negative influence of future convection. We do still anticipate
pockets of Heavy convection, but coverage should be trending down on
the higher amounts. The PoP values from the guidance blends still
look reasonable, give a NW flow aloft and a shortwave ridge aloft
still placed over Far West TX through 00Z Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Broad upper level troughing will remain in place Tuesday and
Wednesday across the Southern Plains and northern Gulf of Mexico,
connected into a larger trough across the eastern U.S., while a weak
ridge will be in place just west of the region. Opportunities for
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will exist
each day Tuesday through Thursday, but it's difficult to pinpoint
timing and favored locations this far out as this will be determined
by mesoscale processes. The weak ridge to the west is forecast to
move overhead Friday and Saturday, bringing with it decreasing
chances for precipitation as well as increasing temperatures and heat
index/wet bulb globe temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

TAFS cover areas of convection impacting SAT/SSF over the next 2 to 3
hours and a small pocket of convection to possibly impact DRT from 07
to 10Z. Relatively lower PoPs are expected based on the CAMS models
for around daybreak so will show some light and low impact VSBY
restrictions around daybreak. No MVFR cigs are projected at any site,
but a heavy storm nearby any of the sites could bring in some low
clouds for a brief moment. Will project mid to late afternoon
convection for another round of slow moving storms with abundant
lightning and possibly heavy rains restricting VSBYs mainly 20Z to
24Z this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              89  67  86  68 /  60  30  50  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  87  66  85  66 /  60  30  50  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  66  85  67 /  50  30  40  20
Burnet Muni Airport            85  65  83  66 /  70  30  50  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           90  69  90  71 /  20  10  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        86  66  85  66 /  70  30  50  20
Hondo Muni Airport             87  65  85  66 /  40  20  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        88  65  85  66 /  50  30  40  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  68  84  68 /  60  30  60  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       87  67  85  68 /  50  20  40  20
Stinson Muni Airport           88  68  86  69 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...76
Aviation...18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
342 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-051000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
342 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected today and tonight across
much of South Central Texas. A few storms could approach severe
levels with some hail and strong wind gusts. Slow storm motions
and training of storm cells could lead to heavy rainfall. There
is a Level 1 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall that could lead
to flooding today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A few storms could produce heavy rainfall Monday through Tuesday.
There is a Level 1 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall that
could lead to flooding during this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

TXZ183-040615-
Val Verde TX-
1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Val
Verde County through 115 AM CDT...

At 1229 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Juno, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Juno, Devils River State Nat Area Del Norte and Bakers Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2979 10146 3026 10143 3028 10106 2981 10089
TIME...MOT...LOC 0529Z 324DEG 20KT 3011 10124

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
117 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

TXZ207-040645-
Guadalupe TX-
117 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Guadalupe
County through 145 AM CDT...

At 116 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorms
near Kingsbury and Geronimo. These storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kingsbury, Staples and Geronimo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2959 9780 2958 9802 2974 9802 2975 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0616Z 180DEG 3KT 2967 9786

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

RUNYEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
131 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

TXZ190-040700-
Blanco TX-
131 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Blanco
County through 200 AM CDT...

At 130 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Blanco, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Blanco, Rocky Creek, Flugrath, Hye and LBJ State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 9834 3005 9843 3005 9851 3014 9859
      3025 9859 3031 9853
TIME...MOT...LOC 0630Z 117DEG 13KT 3011 9847

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

RUNYEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
307 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

TXZ171-040845-
Llano TX-
307 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Llano
County through 345 AM CDT...

At 307 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Prairie Mountain, or 19 miles north of Fredericksburg. This storm
was drifting south.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Prairie Mountain and Enchanted Rock State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3061 9880 3050 9877 3050 9896 3061 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0807Z 358DEG 2KT 3054 9891

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

RUNYEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
316 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

TXZ188-040845-
Gillespie TX-
316 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Gillespie County through 345 AM CDT...

At 316 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Crabapple, or 12 miles north of Fredericksburg. This storm was
drifting south.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crabapple and Enchanted Rock State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3036 9875 3036 9895 3050 9896 3050 9877
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 358DEG 2KT 3044 9889

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

RUNYEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
401 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

TXZ188-040930-
Gillespie TX-
401 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Gillespie
County through 430 AM CDT...

At 358 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
across central Gillespie County along a line extending from 12 miles
northwest of Fredericksburg to 5 miles southeast of Fredericksburg.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Cherry Spring, Luckenbach, Cain City, Crabapple,
Grapetown, Rocky Hill and Enchanted Rock State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3014 9874 3014 9887 3033 9912 3050 9913
      3050 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 0858Z 197DEG 8KT 3039 9904 3021 9880

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

RUNYEN