Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
552 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023

A Flood Watch remains in effect through tonight for areas east of
the Rio Grande. Scattered thunderstorms may produce locally heavy
rainfall, strong winds, and moderate hail into the overnight.
Storm chances decrease early next week, although eastern areas may
again see strong storms capable of localized flooding on Monday.
Breezy southwest winds are expected to the north and west for
Sunday and Monday. The moisture is cleared out on Tuesday, but a
backdoor front may bring the chance of rain later in the week.
Temperatures cool to below normal behind the backdoor cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023

A few thunderstorms have initiated this afternoon where
thermodynamics are most favorable (SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg).
Strong winds, heavy rainfall, and moderate hail are possible
hazards through the evening as moisture is pulled northward in
between a ridge to the east and a trough to the west. PWs near an
inch are in place in eastern areas with training storms possible
over the next several hours in Otero and Hudspeth counties. The
Flood Watch remains in effect for areas east of the Rio Grande
through tonight. Some storms are expected to roll through the El
Paso area this evening with improving conditions overnight.
Localized flooding is possible in far eastern areas.

Drier conditions are expected as you head west towards AZ
with more southwesterly flow in place. Winds will be moderately
breezy in the Gila on Sunday and Monday ahead of the trough with
lighter winds as you travel south and east. 850mb winds of 25kts
are expected with surface winds not far from advisory criteria
each day. Blowing dust is possible from Deming west each
afternoon and has been added to the grids. The dryline is nudged
to the east on Sunday by the breezy SW winds with a chance of
storms into the overnight east of the river. Monday may see the
LLJ strengthen and push the dryline a bit westward, so storm
chances increase. Decent shear and PW's may result in isolated
strong storms and heavy rain Monday PM, similar to what we're
expecting for tonight. The upper trough will try to push the
dryline east of the CWA on Monday as the GFS indicates, so most of
the region will remain dry.

By Tuesday, we are under the base of the trough, forcing most if
not all the moisture to the east and ending rain chances. A
backdoor cold front should then arrive Wednesday night, bringing
a shot of cool air and some added moisture. Slight PoPs return to
the forecast with this backdoor front but confidence is low on
whether we will see any precip Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
will be slowly cooling to below average by the second half of the
week behind the front. It will finally feel like fall soon enough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023

East of Deming...SCT080 BKN-OVC200 with scattered OVC050CB 3-5SM
TSRA. Hail to 0.5 inch, gusty winds to 35KT, and brief heavy rain
possible with these storms. Storms moving east of El Paso after
03Z and mostly dissipated by 07Z. Surface winds south/southeast
7-10KT tonight and south/southwest 10-15G25KT Sunday afternoon.

Deming west...SCT080 SCT 250. Surface winds southwest 7-12KT
tonight and southwest 12-17G30KT Sunday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023

Fire weather concerns remain low through the period. Locally
heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty and erratic winds
are the main threats into tonight as scattered thunderstorms
develop. A Flood Watch is in effect through tonight for areas
east of the Rio Grande. Drier air moves in from the southwest
early next week ahead of a strong upper trough with storm chances
lingering for eastern areas.

Breezy southwest winds are expected to the north and west on
Sunday and Monday afternoon closer to the upper trough. 20-foot
winds of 20-25 mph are expected in FWZ 110 with lighter winds
elsewhere. However, some surface moisture lingers for those days
and ERC's are rather moist. I don't expect the fuels to be
receptive to rapid fire growth as a result. Elevated fire
conditions are possible in the Gila Sun-Mon. The winds subside by
the middle of the week as zonal flow aloft and dry conditions
return. Slight rain chances are possible later in the week with a
backdoor front. Temperatures steadily decrease next week to below
normal.

Min RH's will range from 20-45% east of the Rio Grande through
Monday, 15-25% to the west. Vent rates will be mostly excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  93  67  92  68 /  40  50  10  30
Sierra Blanca            86  58  84  61 /  40  50  20  40
Las Cruces               89  60  88  62 /  30  40  10  20
Alamogordo               87  60  85  62 /  60  50  10  40
Cloudcroft               66  45  63  46 /  60  50  30  40
Truth or Consequences    87  58  85  60 /  30  40  10  10
Silver City              82  53  79  54 /  30  10  10  10
Deming                   91  57  89  57 /  30  20  10  10
Lordsburg                89  56  86  56 /  10  10  10  10
West El Paso Metro       91  66  90  67 /  30  50  10  30
Dell City                90  60  87  62 /  50  50  30  40
Fort Hancock             94  62  92  65 /  30  50  20  40
Loma Linda               84  59  83  61 /  40  50  20  40
Fabens                   92  63  91  65 /  30  50  10  30
Santa Teresa             89  62  89  63 /  30  50  10  30
White Sands HQ           89  63  89  64 /  30  50  10  30
Jornada Range            87  59  87  61 /  30  40  10  20
Hatch                    89  58  89  60 /  30  40  10  20
Columbus                 89  60  89  62 /  20  20  10  10
Orogrande                87  59  85  61 /  50  50  10  30
Mayhill                  77  49  74  50 /  60  50  40  40
Mescalero                76  48  74  49 /  60  50  30  40
Timberon                 74  47  72  47 /  60  50  30  40
Winston                  79  48  77  49 /  20  20  10  10
Hillsboro                86  53  84  54 /  30  30  10  10
Spaceport                86  56  85  59 /  40  40  10  20
Lake Roberts             80  48  78  48 /  30  20  10  10
Hurley                   86  53  84  55 /  20  10  10  10
Cliff                    89  49  86  49 /  20  10  10  10
Mule Creek               84  52  80  52 /  10  10  10  10
Faywood                  84  55  83  56 /  20  20  10  10
Animas                   89  56  86  55 /  10   0  10  10
Hachita                  89  56  88  56 /  20  10  10  10
Antelope Wells           89  56  86  55 /  10   0  10  10
Cloverdale               83  56  81  54 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ418>424.

NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ414>417-427>429.

&&

FORECASTER...17-Hefner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1001 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023

NMZ401-403>411-414>417-425>429-TXZ418>424-011615-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Central Grant County/Silver City Area-
Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-
West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-
East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Southeast Tularosa Basin-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1001 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
Main hazards will be locally heavy rain, and gusty winds from
storms. Hail, although generally small and lightning are also
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Storm chances persist through Tuesday, but largely focus over
Hudspeth and Otero counties. Slight rain chances return on
Thursday. Otherwise, no significant weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed. However, reports of damage
from any storm are appreciated.

29

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