Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
250 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1213 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023
Scattered thunderstorms will continue tonight across the area. A
few could become severe, mostly east of the Rio Grande Valley,
with large hail and damaging winds. Drier air moves in Wednesday
and Thursday for mostly clear skies and little, if any, chance of
rain. Southerly flow brings some more moisture into the area
Friday through Sunday, with a chance of thunderstorms, mainly from
the Rio Grande Valley east. Temperatures will remain above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023
Sub-tropical moisture plume over the southern CWA with shortwave
trough just entering the NW CWA. Dewpoints up into the mid/upper
50s, an increases of around 15 degrees from yesterday. Expecting
ramp up in thunderstorms with some possibly severe; and reality is
verifying this. Storms, as expected, limited to the mountains
now, but should be spreading to the lowlands next few hours. Again
best chances for thunderstorms and severity is from the RG Valley
east, as good CAPE values and veering shear exist. PWs of 150% or
more also persist and with the slow storm movement, can't rule
out some flooding. Are already seeing severe hail indications on
the radar. GFS showing good Otero County outflow around sunset,
so lowland development may be enhanced for El Paso/Dona Ana
Counties this evening.

Northwest flow increasing Wednesday as short wave moves to our
east and ridging builds in to our west. This general pattern will
persist through the weekend and only increase the southerly flow
as Gulf of Alaska upper low moves into the Pac NW. Thus expect
initial dry out Wed/Thur behind the exiting short wave. Mid-level
flow begins pushing moisture in Friday and the weekend. Models
have been pretty consistent on this. Hence put POPs back in-
mainly RG Valley east on Friday and then further east Sat/Sun.
Moisture moves further east Mon/Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023
SCT-BKN100 BKN250. Developing over mountains...scattered OVC060CB
3-5SM TSRA. A few storms could produce large hail and gusty winds
35-50KT. The storm activity moves to the lowlands after 21Z.
Thunderstorms mostly dissipating after 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1213 PM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023
Not much fire weather concerns for this period. Scattered
thunderstorms this evening, with a few of them severe with large
hail and damaging winds. Brief dry out Wed/Thur before isolated
thunderstorms again Friday through Sunday. The best chances for
these storms will be from the Rio Grande Valley east. Temperatures
will remain just above normal.

Min RHs: Lowlands 15-25% through Sunday, highest east of El Paso.
Mountains 20s over the Gila/Black Range, and 35-45% over the
Sacramentos, all through Sunday. Vent rates good Wednesday, then
very good-excellent Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  65  94  67  97 /  30   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            58  88  59  91 /  50  10  10  10
Las Cruces               60  91  61  95 /  40   0   0   0
Alamogordo               58  89  60  92 /  30   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               43  67  42  69 /  30  10   0  10
Truth or Consequences    59  90  60  93 /  30  10   0   0
Silver City              56  86  57  87 /  10   0   0  10
Deming                   59  94  58  96 /  20   0   0   0
Lordsburg                60  94  59  94 /  10   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro       65  93  66  96 /  30   0   0   0
Dell City                60  91  59  94 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             61  95  62  96 /  50   0   0   0
Loma Linda               59  86  61  90 /  40   0   0   0
Fabens                   62  93  63  95 /  30   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             60  92  61  95 /  40   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           62  91  64  95 /  40   0   0   0
Jornada Range            56  91  56  94 /  50   0   0   0
Hatch                    57  94  57  96 /  40  10   0   0
Columbus                 61  93  63  96 /  20   0   0   0
Orogrande                55  89  55  92 /  40   0   0   0
Mayhill                  49  80  49  82 /  30  20   0  10
Mescalero                47  77  48  81 /  40  10   0  10
Timberon                 46  76  47  79 /  40  10   0  10
Winston                  50  83  50  86 /  10  10   0  10
Hillsboro                55  91  57  92 /  20  10   0   0
Spaceport                55  89  56  93 /  40   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             49  84  49  85 /  20  10   0  10
Hurley                   57  88  57  92 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                    49  94  51  94 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek               44  88  47  88 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  58  89  59  90 /  20  10   0   0
Animas                   58  94  59  94 /  10   0   0  10
Hachita                  58  94  59  94 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           59  94  59  94 /  10   0   0  10
Cloverdale               60  89  59  88 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...17-Hefner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023

NMZ401-403>411-414>417-425>429-TXZ418>424-271730-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Central Grant County/Silver City Area-
Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-
West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-
East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Southeast Tularosa Basin-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
and evening, mainly east of the Rio Grande. There is a marginal
risk that a few of these storms could become severe with hail
over an inch in diameter, wind gusts to 60 mph and brief heavy
rain. Storms will move out of the area by midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday
After a couple of dry days Wednesday and Thursday, daily storm
chances return for Friday through the weekend. Storms look to
mainly be focused east of the Rio Grande again. Most storms will
not become severe, but a few could on Saturday with hail over an
inch in diameter, strong winds and brief heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated, but spotters are encouraged
to report any severe weather to the National Weather Service or
law enforcement.

26

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