Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
225 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...CORRECTS A DIRECTION IN THE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

After a very hot day today in parts of the area, temperatures will
cool about 5 to 10 degrees but will remain above average. Each
afternoon will feature chances for thunderstorms with the greatest
chances to see rain in the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

The UL high, which has plagued us with heat all summer, is located
to our south but is shifting to the east. This shift has allowed
moisture to increase, especially across areas west of the Rio
Grande as evidenced by the increase in cloud coverage.
Nevertheless, the high remains close enough to place El Paso in
the oven with temperatures already above 105. Thankfully, today
is expected to be the hottest day of the period.

The HRRR continues to insist showers and thunderstorms will
continue to increase in coverage later this evening and overnight.
This may be associated with a weak vort max moving from northeastern
Sonora into Southeastern AZ plus expected outflow from storms over
Central NM. Regardless, it looks like everyone has at least a low
chance of picking up a little rain tonight. Fingers crossed. These
showers may persist into the morning hours with subsequent lingering
cloud coverage. The HRRR, which has performed very well this summer,
and the RAP both indicate this possibility. The cloud coverage will
help lower temperatures along with the eastward drift of the 500 mb
high. NBM places tomorrow's high at 105 for El Paso, which is heat
advisory territory, but current thinking is clouds will prevent us
from hitting that target. As we go into the afternoon and evening
hours, more thunderstorms are expected to develop, especially in the
mountains, but coverage will depend on how quickly clouds clear.

The H500 will continue shifting east into the Southern Plains,
which will allow the monsoonal plume to extend across NM and far
West Texas. PW values look to increase to around 1.25", which is
close to the 75th percentile for the year. It should be noted
though, the GFS is running wetter than the Euro. Regardless, the
pattern will support mountain scattered and isolated to scattered
lowland thunderstorms each afternoon. In other words, a fairly
typical monsoonal pattern. Highs will range 95-104 throughout the
period, so we should be done with heat headlines for now. Just
past day 7, the high begins expanding back west.

46 days until Autumn.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Mainly VFR conditions expected although HZ/FU at DMN has
periodically reduced flight category there. Skies are expected to
be FEW-BKN130. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon and evening, with likely impacts to all sites,
though timing is uncertain. Storms will be capable of gusty winds
and heavy rain, which may reduce flight categories. Otherwise,
expected north to northwesterly winds to top out around 15 knots
with gusts to 25 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Moisture will continue to increase across the area, especially
west of the Rio Grande. For tonight, this increase will lead to
moisture recoveries above 60 percent west of the Rio Grande and
above 50 percent east of Rio Grande. The increased moisture will
also result in an increase in showers and thunderstorms this
evening into the overnight hours. Tomorrow will not be as hot,
which along with the increase in moisture, will lead to min RH
values in the mid and upper teens. Thunderstorm coverage tomorrow
afternoon will depend on morning cloud coverage. Winds outside of
storms will top out around 10 to 15 MPH with higher gusts. We will
remain in a typical albeit hot monsoonal pattern for the remainder
of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  82 103  79 104 /  40  10  30  10
Sierra Blanca            74  96  70  95 /  50  30  30  20
Las Cruces               77 101  73 102 /  40  10  30  20
Alamogordo               74  97  70 100 /  30  10  30  10
Cloudcroft               57  74  54  76 /  40  20  20  20
Truth or Consequences    73  96  70  97 /  50  30  20  20
Silver City              66  91  64  91 /  40  30  30  50
Deming                   74  99  70 100 /  40  20  30  20
Lordsburg                71  96  68  97 /  50  40  50  50
West El Paso Metro       81 101  77 102 /  40  20  30  20
Dell City                76 101  72 102 /  40  20  10  10
Fort Hancock             78 103  74 103 /  50  20  30  20
Loma Linda               74  93  70  94 /  40  20  20  20
Fabens                   79 100  75 101 /  40  10  20  10
Santa Teresa             77  99  73 100 /  50  20  30  20
White Sands HQ           79  99  74 100 /  40  20  30  20
Jornada Range            74  98  69  99 /  40  20  30  20
Hatch                    73  99  69 101 /  40  20  30  30
Columbus                 77  98  73  99 /  50  20  40  30
Orogrande                74  96  69  98 /  40  10  30  20
Mayhill                  63  86  60  87 /  30  30  20  30
Mescalero                61  85  57  87 /  40  20  30  20
Timberon                 60  83  57  85 /  40  30  20  20
Winston                  61  86  58  87 /  40  50  20  50
Hillsboro                68  96  64  97 /  40  30  30  40
Spaceport                70  96  67  98 /  50  30  30  30
Lake Roberts             60  89  57  89 /  50  50  40  50
Hurley                   69  95  66  96 /  40  30  20  40
Cliff                    61  98  59  98 /  50  40  30  50
Mule Creek               66  92  64  92 /  40  30  30  50
Faywood                  70  94  67  95 /  30  30  30  40
Animas                   71  96  68  97 /  60  50  60  60
Hachita                  71  96  68  97 /  50  40  40  40
Antelope Wells           71  95  67  95 /  60  50  50  60
Cloverdale               67  90  65  90 /  60  60  60  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for TXZ420>422.

     Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT tonight for TXZ418-419-
     423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ401>413-417.

&&

FORECASTER...34-Brown

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1122 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-081730-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1122 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Very hot temperatures this afternoon with heat advisories and
warnings in effect. Values will be between 100 and 110 degrees.
Additionally, expect scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
and into the overnight. Main concerns will be strong gusty winds,
pockets of heavy rain, and some hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Heat decreases, but scattered storm chances remain. Typical summer
monsoon thunderstorm impacts are expected including areas of
heavy rain and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed but any storm reports are
appreciated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
252 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

NMZ404>406-072115-
Uplands of the Bootheel NM-Lowlands of the Bootheel NM-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley NM-
252 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Hidalgo
County through 315 PM MDT...

At 251 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Steins, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could produce blowing dust with low
         visibilities and the winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rodeo, Cotton City, Steins, Animas, Road Forks, Lordsburg Playa and
Granite Gap.

This includes Interstate 10 in New Mexico between mile markers 1 and
16.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3228 10905 3238 10880 3185 10882 3184 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 268DEG 9KT 3213 10904

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TSB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
333 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

NMZ404-405-072200-
Lowlands of the Bootheel NM-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley NM-
333 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Hidalgo
County through 400 PM MDT...

At 332 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cotton City, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cotton City and Pyramid Mountains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3201 10887 3220 10891 3229 10867 3203 10861
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 257DEG 17KT 3212 10885

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TSB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
352 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

NMZ405-072215-
Lowlands of the Bootheel NM-
352 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Hidalgo
County through 415 PM MDT...

At 352 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Alamo Hueco. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alamo Hueco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3158 10821 3133 10821 3133 10838 3144 10845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 283DEG 4KT 3138 10837

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BROWN