Small Craft Advisory 126, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
301 PM PST Sat Nov 18 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast this
afternoon through tonight. Strong winds are expected in Del Norte
and Humboldt counties this evening. Shower activity will diminish
late tonight and Sunday as a colder and more stable airmass
settles over the region. Mainly dry weather is expected through
the week with light rain possible Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers continue across the area this afternoon.
These are driven by a sharp upper level trough and a strong upper
level jet. The HREF mean shows CAPE peaking around 250 j/kg mid
afternoon across much of the area. This will bring the potential
for some thunderstorms. Some of these may be stronger with gusts
to 40 mph and possibly pea sized hail. Locally heavier downpours
are expected with these showers. This could cause some debris flow
so have left the flash flood wash in effect. Behind the front
winds are expected to quickly become northwest and increase to 40
to 50 mph in Humboldt and Del Norte counties. The NAM is showing
winds of 45 kt at 925 mb over the waters this evening and the HRRR
shows winds of 40 kt at just 1000 feet above the surface. The
water vapor satellite shows rapid mid level drying indicating
sinking air. This will likely bring these stronger winds to the
surface. These are only expected to last a few hours at most, but
have opted to issued a wind advisory for this evening in Humboldt
and Del Norte counties. Snow levels are expected to drop this
evening and tonight as the colder air moves in, however showers
will be diminishing as this occurs. Snow levels may drop down to
3500 to 4000 by morning, however by this time most of precip will
have ended. Mendocino and Lake counties will see showers end
tonight and some areas may clear out. However, fog is likely to
develop in the valleys and this will keep most of the valleys from
dropping below freezing. Shower coverage will continue to
diminish in the north Sunday morning with mainly dry conditions by
the afternoon. It is still possible a few showers will pop up
over the interior in the afternoon, but confidence is low on this
and will leave them out of the forecast.

Sunday night into Monday morning is expected to be a chilly night
in many areas. This may result in frost, even along the coast.
Some areas could see freezing temperatures as well, but
confidence is low on that. There could be too much moisture
lingering. Monday and Tuesday are both expected to be dry with
highs in the interior in the upper 60s. It is possible there will
be lingering valley clouds through midday in the north and this
may keep temperatures cooler than expected. So have dropped
forecast highs for Monday and Tuesday in the interior valleys
north of Hwy 36. Light offshore flow is expected to keep the coast
clear and this should allow temperatures to warm into the low 60s
as well.

Wednesday and early Thursday some of the the ensembles are
showing a weak system clipping the northern portion of the area.
The NBM is showing a 40 to 80 percent chance of 0.1 inches in 48
hours in Humboldt and and Del Norte counties, highest in the
north. Dry weather is expected to return for friday and the
weekend. Chilly overnight lows and pleasant afternoons are
expected in most areas. The northern valleys may see low clouds
and fog overnight and through midday keep the temperatures cooler,
although I have not adjusted the forecast to account for that
yet. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...Showers activity continue moving across the region
ahead of a strong front. The primary concern for the aviators during
the next few hours will be strong LLWS, with gusty W-NW winds as
secondary. A rapid wind shift and quick increase W-NW is expected
around 23Z along the coastal terminals. Strong gusty winds from
30 to 40 kts is expected from 23Z to 4Z tonight along the coastal
terminals. MVFR conditions, dropping to IFR/LIFR conditions with
heavy rain are expected to continue tonight across the coastal
waters. VCTS activity remain possible for mainly ACV and CEC
through 19/09Z. HIRES model guidances are suggesting showers
gradually tapper off overnight into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...A rapid wind shift and increase NW winds is expected
during the next few hours into early evening. ASCAT Scatterometer
wind were showing stronger winds than expected across the offshore
waters early this afternoon. Gale force winds with gusts up to 40
knots will be likely across the coastal waters as result. Have
extended the Gale Warning into the inner waters a result. In
addition, a large northwesterly swell will build in behind the
front late tonight, peaking at about 15 feet at 12 seconds.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Wind Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for CAZ101>106.

     Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ102.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ450-455.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
     Sunday for PZZ450.

     Gale Warning until 11 PM PST this evening for PZZ470-475.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
     Sunday for PZZ470-475.

&&

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>