Hazardous Seas Warning 1, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
541 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...The current storm weakens but rain and flooding
continue. Thunderstorms are possible today south of Cape
Mendocino. Coastal flooding and high surf are also hazards to be
considered today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Adverse weather conditions continue although not as
severe in some cases. Hazards continue to plague the area with
downed trees, road closures, flooding, and property damage. Power
outages have also occurred in portions of the area. The good news
comes in the form of a weakening storm that has occluded and
narrowed the warm moist air supply that fuels cyclogenesis. We are
not completely out of the storm as the warm sector, the area
between the warm and cold fronts, is positioned just offshore
where the coast meets the 40N latitude. This aligns with
convective model predictions of potential thunderstorm activity
south of Cape Mendocino. Wide spread instability from previous
trough activity could aide in thunderstorm development as rapid
southerly winds, moisture and orographic lift from coastal
mountain ranges, assist weaker cape values. Some thunderstorms
will be on the stronger side in the described area, especially
this afternoon and evening when an apparent waterspout threat will
develop south of Cape Mendocino. Snow levels are rising above
60000 feet, but will come back down to as low as 3500 feet
Thursday night. Expect more disruptive snowfall at Scott Mountain
Pass.

The rain and winds will further ease tonight and into Friday. Rain
and southerly winds will begin increasing Friday night through
Saturday night from a weaker cyclone forming downstream of highly
invigorated jet stream. The cyclone will move into a region once
again of broad upper diffluence fanning out over the West Coast, and
will tap into another atmospheric river. The additional rainfall
expected over the saturated ground with existing elevated river
levels will enhance threats of flooding. This next storm will not be
nearly as windy as the current storm, with ridgetop winds gusting
from 30 to 40 mph. Rainfall totals through the weekend are currently
forecast at 2-3 inches for the northern half of the area and 3-5
inches south, with up to 6 inches in the higher elevations. This
pattern looks to hold beyond that in the extended forecast, with
more potential rain events and flooding concerns continuing.
/JJW /EYS

&&

.AVIATION...Showers rain and very windy conditions continue
impacting Northern California as a secondary atmospheric river push
into the region early this morning. Expect periods of heavy rain,
south-southeast winds occasionally gusting from 30-50 kt, and
extreme low-level wind shear will impact all TAF sites through this
morning. In addition, passing showers with VCTS remains possible at
KUKI through this morning. Showers and gusty winds will persist
throughout the day today. However, rainfall rates and low-level
winds are forecast to weaken significantly during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.MARINE....Southerlies are expected to pulse again to storm force
Thursday morning across the outers and northern inners as the
associated strong low tracks northward offshore. Winds significantly
weaken Thursday afternoon, although another round of gales are
possible Friday as another front approaches. Periods of strong
southerly winds are expected to continue for the foreseeable future
as fronts continually move onshore.

Locally generated southerly seas are expected to peak around 25 ft
early Thursday, then filter out through the day. Meanwhile, a large
W swell fills in early Thursday morning, with wave heights reaching
25 to 30 ft during the day Thurs. This will lead to very large and
chaotic seas through the day Thurs. The W swell is expected to
quickly decay Friday, then be reinforced by a few W swells through
the weekend, holding around 10 ft. Southerly seas will pulse once
again Friday with the next front as well, particularly in the
northern waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Soils remain mostly saturated, and conditions are
primed for more flooding. Heavy precipitation will continue the
threat of flooding, especially in Mendocino County. An areal Flood
Watch is out for the most of the area except for rain shadowed areas
north. A flood warning remains for the Russian River - Hopland, but
current guidance only briefly takes it above the flood stage of 15
feet late tonight. The Flood Warning for Navarro has been reissued
due to rapid rising stages overnight. The Eel River at Fernbridge
and Mad River/Arcata, will reach Monitor stage through Friday.

Flash Flood Watches remain for the far S and SW portions of the Six
Rivers Lightning Complex burn scar, the Southern August Complex burn
scar and the Coffee Creek portion of the River Complex burn scar. A
combination of terrain enhanced rainfall rates from the strong
southerly winds, and some coastal convective activity will continue
the threat for debris flow in these mostly remote, isolated
areas. The Eel, Russian and Navarro rivers are forecast to crest
into Flood Stage through the weekend with another atmospheric
river. /JJW

&&

BEACH HAZARDS...A high surf warning continues for all coastal areas
starting early this morning and lasting through early Friday
morning. The largest breakers are forecast to build to around 30
feet by midday today. These breaking waves will lead to increased
wave run-up on beaches with waves topping and washing over large
rocks and jetties. These large breakers can be erratic and
unpredictable, and will be capable of lifting up large logs and
sweeping people into frigid and turbulent ocean waters. Even
experienced and strong swimmers will succumb to cold water in a
matter of minutes. People getting swept into the ocean and drowning
is one our leading causes of weather related deaths. Stay away from
the beaches on Thursday. Mariners should not traverse the bar and
harbor entrances and instead should stay in port until the threat
subsides.

Additionally, a coastal flood warning has been issued for high tides
this morning. The strong low offshore has brought a local 1.0 to 1.5
ft storm surge to portions of the coast today. This high tide, along
with the large surf, are expected to inundate low-lying coastal
areas, particularly those susceptible to wave action like Highway
101 near South Beach in Del Norte and New Navy Base Rd on the north
spit of Humboldt Bay. Portions of the Mendocino coastline will
likely see coastal flooding as well with this combination of large
surf and high tides.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     High Wind Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for
     CAZ101>106-109-110-112.

     High Surf Warning until 6 AM PST Friday for CAZ101-103-104-
     109.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM PST this morning for
     CAZ101-103-104-109.

     Flood Watch until 5 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ103-104-
     106-108>115.

     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for CAZ105.

     Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ107-
     111-114.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ107-108-
     111-113>115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Flood Watch until 5 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ410.

     Storm Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ450-470.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for PZZ455.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ475.

&&

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Eureka CA
527 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

CAZ101-061330-
Coastal Del Norte-
527 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST FRIDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest California.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A High Wind Warning is currently in effect.
A High Surf Warning is currently in effect.
A Coastal Flood Warning is currently in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Rain and localized flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For further details please refer to NOAA Weather Radio or
weather.gov/eureka.

CAZ106-110-112-061330-
Southern Humboldt Interior-Northwestern Mendocino Interior-
Southwestern Mendocino Interior-
527 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest California.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Flood Watch is currently in effect.
A High Wind Warning is currently in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Rain and localized flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For further details please refer to NOAA Weather Radio or
weather.gov/eureka.

CAZ102-061330-
Del Norte Interior-
527 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest California.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A High Wind Warning is currently in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Rain and localized flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For further details please refer to NOAA Weather Radio or
weather.gov/eureka.

CAZ108-113-115-061330-
Southern Trinity-Southeastern Mendocino Interior-Southern Lake-
527 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest California.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Flood Watch is currently in effect.
A Wind Advisory is currently in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Rain and localized flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For further details please refer to NOAA Weather Radio or
weather.gov/eureka.

CAZ111-114-061330-
Northeastern Mendocino Interior-Northern Lake-
527 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest California.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Flood Watch is currently in effect.
A Flash Flood Watch is currently in effect.
A Wind Advisory is currently in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Rain and localized flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For further details please refer to NOAA Weather Radio or
weather.gov/eureka.

CAZ105-061330-
Northern Humboldt Interior-
527 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest California.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Flash Flood Watch is currently in effect.
A High Wind Warning is currently in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Rain and localized flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For further details please refer to NOAA Weather Radio or
weather.gov/eureka.

CAZ103-104-109-061330-
Northern Humboldt Coast-Southwestern Humboldt-Mendocino Coast-
527 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST FRIDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest California.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Flood Watch is currently in effect.
A High Wind Warning is currently in effect.
A High Surf Warning is currently in effect.
A Coastal Flood Warning is currently in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Rain and localized flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For further details please refer to NOAA Weather Radio or
weather.gov/eureka.

CAZ107-061330-
Northern Trinity-
527 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest California.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Flash Flood Watch is currently in effect.
A Wind Advisory is currently in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Rain and localized flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For further details please refer to NOAA Weather Radio or
weather.gov/eureka.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
432 AM PST THU JAN 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 W WILLITS             39.39N 123.47W
01/05/2023  E30 MPH          MENDOCINO          CA   PUBLIC

            FULL TREE DOWN ON ROADWAY (STATE HWY 20).

&&

JLW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
544 AM PST THU JAN 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WSW BRICELAND         40.09N 123.94W
01/05/2023  E30 MPH          HUMBOLDT           CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN THE ROADWAY AT
            ETTERSBURG RD / BRICELAND THORN RD.

&&

JLW