Gale Watch 30, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
242 PM PDT Wed Aug 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain near normal through Friday,
followed by above normal temperatures over the weekend and into
the middle of next week. Isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms are
possible across portions of the interior this weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...After abundant stratus blanketed the coastal waters
and numerous adjacent valley, the weak to non-existent low-level
inversion has allowed most of the cloudiness to erode with daytime
heating. There are still plenty of clouds over the coastal waters
near and S of KCEC, and these are expanding and advecting toward
the coast on NW-N cloud-level winds. Skies across the interior are
completely sunny as of this writing, with just a few cumulus
clouds forming across SE Trinity County. Temperatures are quite
seasonal, ranging from the 60s along the coast to the mid 80s
inland. Temperatures are still in the 50s along portions of the
Mendocino Coast where clouds have been more persistent and water
temperatures are running cooler.

A shortwave trough over the Pacific NW will dampen out through
Thursday, with mostly zonal flow developing over the Pacific NW. A
cut-off upper low will linger off the central and S CA coast
through the weekend. Lingering moisture from the remnants of
tropical storm Eugene along with some monsoonal moisture from
farther E will spread northward into the weekend. This, along with
increasing surface temperatures, will bring destabilization
across the interior. Models continue to indicate that isolated
thunderstorms are possible this weekend and into early next week.
Most of these storms will be dry and high-based, although
precipitable water values will gradually increase into early next
week. Storm motion is expected to be slow through most of the
period.

After the moderation in temperatures late this week, temperatures
will climb back to near or just above the century mark across the
interior. A Heat Advisory may been needed for portions of the far
interior as early as Sunday, but, at this time, the threat appears
marginal. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...A brief window of clearing and VFR developed this
afternoon for ACV and CEC. The marine layer remains intact along the
coast, and relatively deep. As it is already quickly regaining areal
coverage, there will likely be TEMPO to prevailing MFVR to IFR CIGS
into the evening. IFR ceiling coverage will settle in overnight,
with eventual, at least TEMPO movement into LIFR into the morning
hours. Soundings show maintenance in the marine depth, so any fog
development should be brief and limited in coverage. CEC will have a
better chance at it. Surface winds will be light and UKI will remain
VFR through this 18Z TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...The northerlies are pulsing stronger again this afternoon
along the typical wind prone locations south of Cape Mendocino,
which will see very isolated gusts around 30 kt through the evening.
Winds will follow a slow increasing trend Thurs and Fri before
ramping back up over this weekend in response to a strengthening
thermal trough. Gale strength gusts are forecast to develop in
portions of the outer waters Saturday into Monday, particularly in
the Northern Outer zone. Seas remain primarily locally generated,
tied to the nearshore northerlies...although a small mix of NW and
SW swells will be moving through the waters through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...As mentioned above, moisture is expected to surge
northward across the region this weekend into early next week. This
will aid in thunderstorm development across the interior mountains.
The threat for fire starts due to lightning will be further enhanced
by another period of above normal temperatures developing over the
weekend and into next week. Will continue to highlight this in the
FWF headlines. The ECMWF model is indicating an increased threat of
lightning strikes Monday afternoon and evening. We'll continue to
monitor for the threat of more lightning coverage. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...None.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png