Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
258 PM PDT Thu Jun 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are forecast to occur daily with daytime heating over the interior
through Monday. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near seasonal
normals all next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Convection has been developing with daytime heating
over Trinity County again this afternoon. Storms have been pulsing
and then collapsing, but were slow moving. Thus, locally heavy
rain (hourly rates near 1 in/hr), some hail and erratic outflow
wind gusts were likely occurring. These storms will wane with
daytime heating. Convection may linger out over highest terrain in
NE Trinty through late evening once peak heating ends.

A deformation zone has been forming just to the northeast of the
area this afternoon, in between an approaching trough to our west
and a closed 500mb circulation center over the Great Basin. The
approaching short-wave trough from the west will create more upper
level divergence for perhaps stronger and longer-lived storms on
Friday, over Trinty County. The convective allowing models,
particularly the HRRR, appears to capture this quite well. Buoyant
energy approaches 1000J/kg with equilibrium levels near 33 kft,
however bulk shear is not supportive for storm organization and
longevity.

The upper level trough to our west will form into another closed
500mb circulation over the weekend offshore central California and
then slowly burrow eastward into the Great Basin/Desert SW into
early next week. Moisture will begin to back into the area on
Saturday from the southeast, from the east on Sunday, and eventually
from the northeast by Monday. Precipitable water will begin to
increase as early as Saturday, however convective inhibition may
suppress storm development til late in the afternoon or early
evening. Precipitable water will eventually increase to near 1
inch or more (over 200% of normal for June) by Sunday as
northeasterly-easterly flow aloft persists. CAPE and instability
from the coarser models (and NAM12 profiles) appear sufficient to
warrant a chance for more storms over the weekend into Monday.
Even the calibrated guidance from the National Blend of Models and
the legacy SREF based on the cloud physics thunder parameter
indicate increasing probabilities for thunderstorms this weekend,
mostly Sunday and again on Monday.

Upper ridging folding over into the Pacific Northwest (Washington
and Oregon) around Tuesday and Wednesday of next week should
bring less potential for showers and storms to the area and
perhaps some warming and drying. Interior valley highs should
rebound into the mid/upper 80's with lower chances for lower 90s.
There are subtle signs for above normal precipitable water linger
as 500mb northeasterly flow develops between the ridge and a
SW-NE oriented elongated trough to our south. Thus, we may not be
completely out of the woods yet on showers and thunderstorms.
The chances look quite slim right now and will continue with
drier/warmer weather. Another trough may drop down from the
north around mid and disrupt the slight warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...Afternoon visible satellite reveals stratus blanketing
the coast. In its deepened state, the stratus has protruded well
inland, and successfully spilled over the higher terrain west of UKI
overnight. Southerly return flow around a coastal eddy is
maintaining lower ceilings at CEC, while westerly winds are driving
the marine layer into ACV. Periods of light, coastal drizzle will
continue into midday Friday.

A similar setup is expected over the next 24 hours, thus a
persistence forecast is outlined in the 18Z TAFs. Solid MVFR is
expected at UKI, but soundings show the potential for a drop at or
just below 1000ft AGL for the early morning hours of Friday. IFR to
dips into LIFR will again occur at ACV to CEC.

&&

.MARINE...A weak low pressure center continues to swirl out to sea
aiding in maintaining gentle southerly winds. Sub-advisory winds and
seas are expected to continue for the marine zones into early
Saturday morning. Multiple models depict a high pressure system in
the NE Pacific to push into the area by Saturday increasing both
northerly winds and steep and elevated seas. Small craft conditions
could develop from the southern outer waters and spread north
throughout the day on Saturday. Gale gusts could occur in the
northern outer waters by Saturday evening with seas potentially
building to 16 feet by Sunday. Winds and seas will continually
decrease into early next week. Otherwise, a series of small, long
period southerly and westerly swells are set to continue into the
weekend.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Eureka CA
311 AM PDT Thu Jun 8 2023

CAZ101>115-091015-
Coastal Del Norte-Del Norte Interior-Northern Humboldt Coast-
Southwestern Humboldt-Northern Humboldt Interior-
Southern Humboldt Interior-Northern Trinity-Southern Trinity-
Mendocino Coast-Northwestern Mendocino Interior-
Northeastern Mendocino Interior-Southwestern Mendocino Interior-
Southeastern Mendocino Interior-Northern Lake-Southern Lake-
311 AM PDT Thu Jun 8 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest California.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across interior
portions of Northwest California.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional thunderstorm activity will be possible across interior
portions of Northwest California during the next seven days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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