Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
127 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 126 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

Key Messages:

 - Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms in central MO this
afternoon.

 - Rain/snow mix possible along and north of US Highway 36 Sunday
   morning.

 - Unseasonably cool temperatures expected Sunday and Monday
   morning.

...Discussion...

A combination of satellite imagery and radar have made it easy to
track the location of the cold front moving through the CWA. As this
front moves out of the northwest quadrant of MO, this will keep
severe weather concerns relegated to central, southern, and eastern
MO. Ahead of the front, clearing across central and the southwestern
quadrant of MO has allowed for the environment to recharge after
storms this morning as WAA and moist air advection continue feeding
into our warm sector. Our surface low has also taken a farther track
south that what we were anticipated yesterday, currently over west-
central MO. This will places the southeast quadrant of our CWA in a
favorable spot to receive our forecast area's strongest storms.
However, if the cold front makes it to the SE border of our CWA, SGF
and LSX will be the one seeing all the severe storms this afternoon.
As the front pushes east, storms will continue initiating around
through 2PM as the boundary destabilizes. CAMs continue to resolve
this first bout of storms to be isolated supercells before
converging into a linear structure. These early afternoon storms
will be surface-based, tapping into a decent pool of SBCAPE anywhere
between 1500-2500 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates and effective
bulk shear between 40-50 knots will be enough to support the
development of supercells. All hazards are possible with these
initial storms: a few tornadoes are possible with a good chance for
large hail and damaging winds. Within a couple of hours, we
anticipate these cells to converge in a linear structure as they
make their way in central MO. Between 5PM-7PM, this line will be
nearing the EAX CWA border and entering into LSX's CWA. The threat
for severe weather in our CWA is anticipated to be completely done
around 7PM tonight. Lingering showers and a few non-severe
thunderstorms are possible for the rest of our CWA this afternoon
into early Sunday morning.

Behind the front, temperatures will drop into the mid 30s to lower
40s. We are still looking as a chance for a rain/snow mix to affect
areas north of Interstate 70. While surface temperatures will sit a
few degrees above freezing in northern MO, wet bulb temperatures may
hover around freezing to 34 degrees F for a couple of hours Sunday
morning. This coupled with saturated DGZ zones in the atmospheric
profile and some hinting of weak frontogenesis fields at 700mb, the
atmosphere may be primed and ready to go for some rain/snow showers.
The extremely warm ground temperatures from our several days of 80
degree highs will keep any snow accumulation from occurring, if snow
does end up occurring. By Sunday afternoon, dry weather  will
finally arrive with highs in the 40s to 50s. Temperatures will
rebound back to seasonal normals in the 60s by Monday. Upper-level
ridging will keep our weather dry and warm through through most of
Monday and Tuesday until another upper-level shortwave trough digs
into the Great Plains. Chances for rain and storms return Wednesday
through the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

MVFR conditions expected for the majority of the TAF period as
broken to overcast clouds between 1000-2500 feet affect our
terminal airspace. Rain will likely start up again around 3-4pm
this afternoon, tapering off by the evening hours. We may see some
IFR conditions with these showers, and will adjust accordingly as
needed. Winds will be mainly out of the northwest, gusting
through the evening hours around 25-30 knots, calming down around
10-13 knots overnight, and beginning to gust upwards of 30-35
knots by late Sunday morning.

The severe threat for our terminals is non-existent today with
the main bout of rain ending this evening. However, lingering
light showers will be possible through Sunday morning potentially
resulting in some VCSH in later prevailing groups. We have kept
them out of our TAFs at this time until confidence is higher.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Klaus
Aviation...Klaus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
509 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
509 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, especially
toward central Missouri. The primary threats will be large hail and
damaging wind gusts, although a few tornadoes will also be possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 Northwesterly winds will gust up to 45 mph on Sunday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
208 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

KSZ105-151945-
Johnson KS-
208 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Johnson
County through 245 PM CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gardner, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Overland Park, Olathe, Shawnee, Lenexa, Leawood, Gardner, Spring
Hill, Lake Quivira, Clare and Lackmans.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 in Kansas between mile markers 207 and 226.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 0 and 6, and between mile
markers 77 and 83.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 9488 3883 9500 3904 9476 3891 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 219DEG 36KT 3883 9486

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH