Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED MAR 22 2023

Key Messages:

- Chance for strong storms later this evening and overnight with
hail being the main hazard type.

- Rain continues Thursday for areas mainly south of Highway 50 with
additional rain possible Friday into Friday night.

A quasi-stationary front was draped across the southern portions
of the forecast area this afternoon. The front is roughly just
south of KIXD to between KLXT and Pleasant Hill, extending to the
east to near Marshall and between Sedalia and Boonville. The front
may lift slightly further north in our eastern zones but will
otherwise remain close to it's current location. Temperatures have
surged south of the boundary in our southwestern zones. And that
has enabled more robust instability to develop with an associated
CU field. Forecast soundings in this area show a layer of warm
air aloft and that capping should keep storms from developing
during the afternoon hours. Overnight, a strong low-level jet
redevelops and will overrun the low-level quasi-stationary
boundary. Broad isentropic ascent will exist across the entire
forecast but there will be stronger/more focused ascent over the
southern third as that low-level jet pushes over the front. This
is really noted at the 295K and 300K surfaces. Forecast soundings
across the forecast show inhibition lingering in our south with it
waning further north with modest or stronger elevated
instability. Storms are expected to develop late this
evening/overnight along/north of the boundary and where the
inhibition is weakest. Strong 1-6KM shear, above the low-level
stable layer, and elongated hodographs suggest hail will be the
main hazard with this activity.

The front will push south of the area tomorrow morning and will
become the focus more widespread heavier precipitation Thursday
evening into Friday. While it looks like the heaviest precipitation
will stay south of the area, there may be some northward
development. So have added some PoPs in our far south to account for
that possibility. A stronger shortwave trough will move through the
area Friday into Friday night. This will lead to more widespread
precipitation through the forecast area as the system moves through.
Models do show some snow mixing in but at this time the lower-levels
look too warm and the system not being dynamic enough to help cool
the column to introduce any snow.

In the wake of this system, for the weekend, there isn't a strong
push of cold air into the region. So temperatures should be near to
seasonal normals for Saturday. Another subtle shortwave will move
through on Sunday, bringing another chance for precipitation. That
will keep the area cooler on Sunday and with no strong push of cold
air, temperatures should only be a bit below normal Sunday into
Monday.
.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT WED MAR 22 2023
Stationary boundary south of I-70 will be the focus for lower
clouds and fog throughout the night. Was careful not to forecast
conditions below airport minimums, but could see conditions
approach minimums toward 06z, especially at IXD and perhaps MKC.
Farther north, increasing northerly winds will likely keep
ceilings and visibility higher, though still sub-IFR. Expect
improving conditions after 15Z Thursday, but will be gradual with
northeast winds throughout the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
341 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-230845-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
341 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this morning...severe
 weather is not expected.

 Strong storms will be possible tonight with hail up to the size of a
 quarter the main threat.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 A few strong storms may be possible across central Missouri Thursday
 afternoon. An isolated severe storm may be possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1108 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

MOZ039-040-230430-
Saline MO-Howard MO-
1108 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Howard
and southern Saline Counties through 1130 PM CDT...

At 1107 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Marshall, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Fayette, Sweet Springs, Glasgow and Arrow Rock.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 63 and
73.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3906 9265 3902 9292 3906 9294 3901 9300
      3894 9349 3905 9348 3926 9275
TIME...MOT...LOC 0407Z 247DEG 34KT 3902 9315

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Blair