Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 228 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2023

Key messages:

- Two rounds of severe weather are possible today, the first this afternoon/evening.
  All modes of severe weather are possible. The second round
  tonight will be in a line of storms with winds being the main
  threat however, a brief hail threat and weak tornado threat
  cannot be ruled out.

- Freezing conditions will be possible for most of the area Thursday
  morning.

Discussion:

This afternoon, the warm front has lifted north of the area leaving
the entire forecast area in the warm section. Strong WAA is
producing southerly winds of 40-45mph. NAM soundings continue show a
cap in place near the KC Metro and this is confirmed by aircraft
soundings. However, further south across central Missouri storms
have initiated along a boundary where CINH has all but dissipated
here explosive growth has been noted in an area of 2500-3000J/Kg of
CAPE and 60kts of 0-6KM shear. Storms have initiated over Bates and
Henry Counties and severe storms have become likely there moving
northeast through the afternoon. Given the CAPE/shear parameters all
modes of severe weather will be possible with this afternoon/evening
round of storms.

This afternoon, a dryline is analyzed over eastern Kansas with a
cold front extending further back to the west across north central
into southwestern Kansas. Tonight the surface front is expected to
overtake the dryline and allow another round of storms to develop
over northwestern Missouri to eastern Kansas. The main concern with
these storms will be for damaging winds as they quickly evolve into
a line. However, with shear perpendicular to the line, embedded
tornadoes cannot be ruled out especially across northern Missouri in
the vicinity of the surface low. In addition, with initial upscale
growth of the like of storms, large hail may be briefly possible.
This line of storms is then expected to quickly move east across the
CWA through the overnight maintaining a damaging wind threat and low
end tornado threat exiting the area well before sunrise.

Behind the front tonight into tomorrow, modest CAA will make for a
much cooler day with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Tomorrow
night, high pressure will move into the area providing for light
winds and clear skies. This will allow temperatures to fall back
into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Although, conditions do not yet
warrant frost/freeze products, those who have sensitive vegetation
out will need to be mindful of that. The ridge of surface high
pressure will remain over the area on Thursday providing copious
sunshine but weak mixing, as such, highs will remain below normal in
the mid 50s to near 60. A warming trend is expected Friday through
Saturday with increase WAA through the period. By saturday highs
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only other chance for
precipitation beyond today will come on Sunday as a weak upper level
shortwave moves through the area. Severe weather is not anticipated
however showers and thunderstorms will be possible with highs in the
low to mid 70s. In the wake of the weak upper shortwave moving
through the area, upper level ridging builds back into the region on
Monday and Tuesday. This will allow highs to rise into the mid 70s
to mid 80s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2023

The primary aviation concern will be a line of storms moving
across eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening. Storms
are expected to move into the terminals between 02-04Z with strong
winds possible with any storm and reduced visibility due to heavy
downpours. The line of storms should be moving out of the
terminals by 04-06Z with ceilings scattering out and winds
gradually decreasing through the day Wednesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 402 AM CDT TUE APR 4 2023

Today will bring exceptionally breezy conditions to the bulk of
the forecast area. Southerly winds will increase through the day
to around 30 mph, with gusts approaching 40 to 50 mph at times.
Good surface moisture will be in place for the early part of the
day, but by mid to late afternoon areas across eastern Kansas and
far western Missouri will see a rapid plummet of surface moisture
as very dry and breezy air moves in from the west. Expect extreme
fire conditions across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri as
a result of this airmass. Further east, winds will be very strong,
but RH values should remain around 40 percent with good low level
moisture in place. Winds will shift dramatically from the west-
northwest late this evening through the overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102-103.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-011-
     012-020-028.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ012>015-020>023-
     028>031-037>039-043>045-053-054.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ007-008-016-017-
     024-025-032-033-040-046.

&&

Discussion...73
Aviation...PietrychaP
Fire Weather...Leighton

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
525 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051030-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
525 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, with large hail, strong
 winds, and tornadoes possible.

 Gusty south winds around 40 to 55 mph are expected Tuesday. Dry
conditions, mainly across eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
will bring some fire weather concerns to those areas.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No Hazardous weather expected.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             MARYVILLE               40.35N 94.87W
04/04/2023  E1.25 INCH       NODAWAY            MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT RELAYED BY KMTV MET.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
702 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             MARYVILLE               40.35N 94.88W
04/04/2023  E1.50 INCH       NODAWAY            MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM TWITTER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
708 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HAIL             1 SSW PICKERING         40.44N 94.85W
04/04/2023  E2.00 INCH       NODAWAY            MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KMBC METEOROLOGIST.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
718 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             MARYVILLE               40.34N 94.88W
04/04/2023  M1.00 INCH       NODAWAY            MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
738 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     HAIL             BURLINGTON JUNCTION     40.45N 95.07W
04/04/2023  E1.00 INCH       NODAWAY            MO   PUBLIC

&&