Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
406 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 405 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2023

Key Messages:

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible through the afternoon
  and evening hours.

- Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, although a
  tornado or two will be possible. Locally heavy rain is also
  possible.

- Generally dry conditions with above normal temperatures are
  expected for tomorrow into next week.

Discussion:

The closed 500 mb low is centered over western South Dakota with
the trough ejecting out across the north central Plains and into
the western Midwest. At the surface, a low is over NE Kansas with
a an outflow reinforced warm front/boundary draped to the
southeast through NE Kansas and through the southern portions of
the KC Metro and down toward the Lake of the Ozarks. Meanwhile,
the cold front stretches to the south near the Interstate 35
corridor. Showers and thunderstorms, including one severe warned,
continue north of the warm front from Interstate 70 near Sweet
Springs on north toward the Iowa border. The main area to watch
for later this afternoon will be in the warm sector, especially
near the warm front over the southern portions of the KC Metro
where conditions are very favorable for supercell development if
the convective inhibition erodes enough to allow for convective
initiation. This likely will occur sometime in the in the 4 to 6
pm window, with all severe hazards possible given favorable
instability and deep layer shear for well organized storms capable
of large hail and damaging winds as well as large low level
helicity favorable for tornadoes. Storms will move off to the
southeast after initiation through the remainder of the evening
hours. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, with flash
flooding possible, especially if heavy rain falls within a more
urbanized area. Storms should exit the forecast area to the
southeast by late tonight.

For tomorrow and into next week, mid level ridging builds in
across the west central CONUS. Guidance has continued to nudge
temperatures warmer, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s
and overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s and generally dry
conditions persisting.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2023

Thunderstorms from this morning have exited east of the terminals,
although additional redevelopment remains possible over the next
few hours. The main event for thunderstorms looks to be in the 21z
to 01z time period at STJ and the 22z to 02z time period for the
KC metro terminals, with the greatest threat for strong to severe
storms in the 22z to 00z time frame. Storms should largely exit
by around 2z to 3z tonight, although it is possible some showers
may linger longer. Winds this afternoon should remain out of the
south and breezy, turning SW and decreasing behind the storms
tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...BMW
Aviation...BMW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
513 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-241015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
513 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Strong to severe weather expected this evening into the night.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Additional rounds of showers expected for Sunday. Severe not expected
at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
443 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Hail             Raymore                 38.81N 94.45W
09/23/2023  E1.00 inch       Cass               MO   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reported mostly dime size
            hail with quarter size hail southwest of
            Raymore.

&&

MAK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
452 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     Hail             2 NNE Cleveland         38.71N 94.57W
09/23/2023  M1.50 inch       Cass               MO   Public

&&

BMW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
454 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Hail             Belton                  38.81N 94.53W
09/23/2023  E1.00 inch       Cass               MO   Public

&&

SM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
455 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     Hail             Chillicothe             39.79N 93.55W
09/23/2023  E1.00 inch       Livingston         MO   Emergency Mngr

&&

BMW

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