Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
246 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 1 2023

Key Message:

- Thunderstorms with very heavy rain ongoing east of the KC area.

- Dangerous heat continues in our far southern to southwestern
zones. This may spread slightly east and north Wednesday,
potentially into the KC metro.

Pronounced upper ridge is evident on water vapor imagery with 500mb
heights overlaid. An area of convection has developed (as of 07Z)
from Sedalia northwestward to northwestern Missouri. Convection is
expected increase in coverage this morning as a southwesterly low-
level jet transports moisture into the area. The convection is
occurring within precipitable water values near 2". This will
lead to very efficient rainfall for areas that see storms. As of
07Z, DMO has already picked 1.9" and will very likely add on to
those totals as storms train roughly over the same area. In fact,
the elevated boundary/ convergence area is nearly parallel to the
upper-level winds so new development occurs northwest and then
tracks southeast over the same areas. Would not be surprised if
there is a swath of 4 to 6 inches of rain from around Pettis
County to the northwest.

To the south and west of the boundary, temperatures should soar into
the 90s. Linn County, KS may see highs surge to near 100 degrees.
This may lead to some mixing out of dewpoints which cuts into how
hot heat index values may be. But with temperatures climbing into
middle to upper 90s, and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, we
should see heat index values hit at least 105 from Miami, Linn,
parts of Cass, and Butler. It gets a little more uncertain further
east but Henry county will likely see heat index values between 100
and 105. With all that said, the current heat advisory looks to be
in good shape.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, the pattern is similar to this
morning but shifted several counties to the east and north. So
anticipate renewed convection developing overnight from central
Missouri northwestward into our northeastern zones and possibly as
far west as Harrison County. A southwesterly low-level jet develops,
transporting moisture into the area and nearly perpendicular to the
boundary. Upper-level flow is nearly parallel to the boundary and we
get additional training storms. With that said, I'd like to see how
this morning's activity evolves before adding another flood watch.

As with Tuesday, to the southwest of the boundary, temperatures will
soar into the upper 90s to low 100s Wednesday afternoon. With
dewpoints likely in the low to mid 70s, heat index values should
climb to near 110 in our far southwestern zones and near 105 from
Sedalia through the KC metro. For now, we'll message this
potential via our DSS packet and watch how the pattern evolves. If
it continues to looks excessively hot for Wednesday this evening
or tonight, we'll need to hoist heat headlines.

Through the end of the week, the upper-ridge flattens out and that
shifts the potential for heat south of our area. That will also
allow precipitation chances to slide south with westerly flow
prevailing. Next week, a more unsettle pattern sets up with a
troughing developing over the middle of the country. This helps
temperatures trend cooler than normal with continued periodic
precipitation chances.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT TUE AUG 1 2023

There are currently a few thunderstorms to the east of the KC area
moving southeast. These storms are expected to move out of the
vicinity of the terminals within a few hours. Winds will
gradually shift to a southerly direction. VFR conditions are
expected as thunderstorms move out of the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ057-060.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ043-053-054.

     Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ014-022-023-
     030>032-038>040-044>046.

&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Collier

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