Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
645 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2023

Key Message

* Showers and thunderstorms Sunday night, into Monday morning. Some
  storms may be strong, but widespread severe weather not expected.

* Very warm and humid once again for Tuesday and Wednesday

* Daily chances for thunderstorms return late this week, into
  weekend.

Seasonally warm and humid airmass in place on Sunday has brought
high temperatures touching 90 degrees in some locations. Dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s have contributed to heat indices a few
degrees higher than going temperatures. This within a broad area of
southeasterly surface winds just east of a developing surface low
over the central High Plains. In the mid levels a stout ridge
continues to exert its influence over the southwestern CONUS, where
hot and dry conditions persist. Around the periphery of the ridge
there is some useful flow, associated with a broad trough over
Hudson Bay. This area of flow between the SW CONUS ridge and the
Hudson Bay low will keep chances for precipitation going for the
next couple days. Satellite imagery at this time looks pretty barren
for any promising rain prospects this afternoon and evening, but
that should change going into tonight. A strong isentropic component
found mostly on the 310-315K Theta E surfaces will contribute to an
area of broad ascent later tonight. There will be a corridor of
richer moisture running NW/SE within the warm air advection regime,
between roughly KSLN and KCOU. This corridor of moisture will be the
areal focus for elevated showers and thunderstorms tonight. The
exact areal extent of the better precipitation chances still needs
to come into better focus. HRRR indicates blossoming convection just
after midnight, perhaps just east of the KC Metro, into central
Missouri. This is a very plausible area of initiation, but with the
low level jet nosing in a little further west, across central and
eastern Kansas, it's also plausible that we could see the convection
form a little further west, into eastern Kansas and western
Missouri. Early IR channel trends with growing CU/ACCAS tonight
after sunset should help bring to into focus where these storms will
form. Despite the richer moisture being in place along that
aforementioned corridor, MU CAPE should max out around 2000-2500
J/kg. However, the aforementioned corridor of better flow aloft will
help contribute to 40+ kts of shear, which may help with some
persistent updrafts. Overall, expect low end severe weather concern
for tonight, but some of the more robust storms may have some hail
around 1 inch.

The story for Monday will be somewhat conditional on how the
convection plays out Monday morning. Left over showers and cloud
debris will certainly play a role in just how warm it can get. With
the better chance of mid/late morning/early afternoon showers in
central Missouri, it's possible that area will remain a bit cooler,
while areas of far EC Kansas and WC Missouri could be a bit warmer
should clouds clear out sooner. This may leave the far southwestern
corner of the CWA vulnerable to heat concerns Monday afternoon.

By Tuesday, the SW CONUS ridge will shift a bit to the east, and
become a little more focused on the central part of the CONUS. This
should bring a bit of drying trend for the early to middle part of
the week. It may also mean warmer temperatures and a return of the
oppressive heat and humidity we have been dealing with, lately.

The extended forecast brings a bit of good news, with respect to
heat and precipitation. There are some signs in the deterministic
operational models of the ridge at the very least flattening out, if
not completely breaking down. This will mean more mid level flow
over the area, which will help with daily chances for rain and a
break from the oppressive heat. While pinpointing any promising
chances for rain is not probable at this point, the shift in the
pattern may bring more active weather and slightly cooler
temperatures to the area perhaps as early as middle to late this
week, into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2023

A complex of thunderstorms is currently moving southward across
the region. These storms are expected to impact the terminals over
the next few hours. An additional round of storms is possible
later in the overnight; however, that will be conditional based
on the effect of this first round of storms. VFR conditions return
after sunrise.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Pesel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
438 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-310945-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
438 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 There is a chance for thunderstorms this morning with isolated
 damaging wind gusts possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

 Several additional rounds of thunderstorms possible. Threat of
 severe is low. Hot and humid conditions return midweek.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
706 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Oregon                  39.99N 95.14W
07/30/2023                   Holt               MO   Law Enforcement

            Several trees were blown down over roads in
            the city of Oregon.

&&

CDB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
732 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Saint Joseph Airport    39.77N 94.91W
07/30/2023  M67 MPH          Buchanan           MO   ASOS

&&

CDB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
733 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Saint Joseph      39.76N 94.83W
07/30/2023                   Buchanan           MO   Public

            Severe tree limbs down in St Joe.

&&

CDB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
806 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 W Jarbalo             39.21N 95.12W
07/30/2023  E60 MPH          Leavenworth        KS   Trained Spotter

            Spotter reports 50-60 mph winds.

&&

RC

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