Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
330 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 329 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2023

Key Points:

* Potential for severe thunderstorms possible through early evening
  hours south of I-70.

* MCS may develop across Northern Plains tonight, building southeast
  Tuesday morning.

Detailed discussion...

Very active pattern with unstable atmosphere
remaining across the region.  With several potential triggers moving
through the area, difficult forecast to try to determine convective
chances.  The broad scale continues to be characterized by upper
trough across the Hudson Bay and large upper ridge across the
western US.  Several rounds of convection today have lead to
numerous outflow boundaries, which are largely concentrated south of
I-70. Steep lapse rates in the lowest half of the atmosphere have
lead to 3500-4500 J/kg of CAPE.  Strong shear in the mid and upper
levels of the atmosphere have lead to 50-60 knots of effective
shear. With little capping inversion and boundary interaction,
severe thunderstorm watch continues south of I-70.

Shortwave cutting across the top of the upper ridge across the
northern Rockies is expected to lead to thunderstorms developing
western Nebraska into western South Dakota late this afternoon.
These storms may develop into a complex, rolling down the thermal
ridge into the region Tuesday morning.  NBM is largely farther east
with the chances of precipitation than the CAMs, and have backed
pops farther to the west Tuesday morning. If MCS is able to move
into the area, potential for strong damaging winds. Questions remain
about how quickly atmosphere will be able to recover tomorrow with
increasing southerly flow as weak area of low pressure moves
eastward across Kansas. NBM suggest the potential for near heat a
advisory criteria across western central Missouri, but potential
impacts of convection limit confidence for a headline at this time.

Wednesday is currently looking mostly dry with surface high pressure
across the western Great Lakes nosing into the region keeping any
large scale triggers away. This may allow the atmosphere to warm,
especially south of I-70 potentially leading to heat indies near 100
F.

Stationary boundary across southern Missouri may lead to additional
storms across the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Quazi-zonal flow late week becomes more northwest to southeast as
upper level ridge across the western US regains strength.  Flow
continues to be riddled with disturbances, potentially leading to
additional low predictability chances of thunderstorms.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2023

VFR conditions will largely prevail through the period, but rounds
of convection are possible through the period. Timing of storms is
low confidence, and therefore left mention out of TAFs for now.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...BT
Aviation...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
347 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-180900-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
347 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible today, gradually ending by this
evening. An isolated severe storm producing strong wind gusts cannot
be ruled out.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorm chances continue into Tuesday, a few storms may be
strong.

Heat and humidity also increase Tuesday and Wednesday, with heat
indicies approaching 100 to 105 mainly south of Interstate 70.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
132 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

MOZ003-005-171900-
Worth MO-Harrison MO-
132 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Worth
and northwestern Harrison Counties through 200 PM CDT...

At 132 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Irena, or 11 miles south of Mount Ayr, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ridgeway, Eagleville, Martinsville and Hatfield.

This includes Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 95 and
106.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4040 9385 4023 9412 4033 9422 4038 9422
      4038 9427 4045 9433 4057 9414
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 309DEG 39KT 4055 9428

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
554 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     Hail             1 N Raymore             38.81N 94.45W
07/17/2023  E1.00 inch       Cass               MO   Public

&&

BMW