Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
223 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2023

Key messages:

- Severe storms expected this afternoon/evening along and south of
  Highway 36

- A few strong storms possible Sunday along and north of I-70

Discussion:

  This afternoon a surface front is evident on satellite imagery
extending from near Manhattan to just north of MCI to Randolph
County. This front is continuing to lift slowly north and will be
the focus for thunderstorms this afternoon. A supercell near
Manhattan will continue to ride eastward along the front. This storm
is moving into an area of extreme instability with a corridor of
4000J/Kg of MUCAPE that exists right through the KC Metro and along
that front. Damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms
will be for damaging winds in excess of 70 mph. There is also a
chance for quarter-sized hail, and a isolated tornado along the line
cannot be ruled out. A second round of storms further to the west of
that initial supercell, will also continue to push east as a line of
storms with another round of damaging winds possible. These storms
will also be capable of heavy downpours with PWAT values around 2".
The storms should be progressive enough to preclude any flooding
threat however, if two rounds of heavy storms move over the same
location there is the potential for minor flooding to occur. Storms
will continue to spread south and east as we go through the evening
and night time hours exiting the area by sunrise tomorrow.

Saturday a surface ridge of high pressure will build into the area
making for a pleasant day with seasonable highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. As we move into the latter half of the weekend the
overall upper level pattern becomes more amplified with upper level
ridging building over the western CONUS and troughing from the Great
Lakes into the Ohio River Valley. That will leave the local area
under northwest flow aloft on the lee side of the western ridge.
Several shortwaves from Sunday through Tuesday could bring several
round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. The round on Sunday
afternoon or evening may have some stronger storms capable of strong
wind gusts and small hail with MUCAPE values between 2000-2500J/Kg
and effective shear around 40kts.

As we get into late Tuesday into Wednesday the local area comes
under the influence of the western upper level ridge and temperatures
will rise into the mid to upper 90s south of the Missouri river with
heat index values in the 102 to 107 range. However, Thursday another
trough is expected to move from the northern Plains into the Great
Lakes region shunting the upper level ridge back to the southwest an
allow the chance for another round of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will fall back into the mid 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2023

The main concern for aviators will involve thunderstorms that have
developed over central Kansas expected to reach the TAF sites by
21Z-22Z. These storms are expected to produce mod rain which will
reduce vis to 1-3SM. Storms are expected thru 01Z-02Z aft which a
pd of lgt shra will be possible thru 03Z-04Z with no vis/cig
restrictions. Byd 03Z-04Z expect bkn mid-lvl clouds becmg sct.
Winds will be out of the south btn 5-10kts the beginning the TAF
period but will shift to the north at 10-15kts as storms move
thru the TAF sites. There is the potential for gusty winds at the
TAF sites if a stronger storm impacts a terminal as such future
amendment may be need to include that potential impact. Aft
03Z-04Z winds will be generally lgt out of the W to NW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...73
Aviation...73

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
331 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-150845-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
331 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, a few may
become strong to severe with locally damaging wind gusts.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorm chances continue Sunday evening into portions of next
week. Heat and humidity also increase Tuesday and Wednesday, with
heat indicies approaching 105 in some areas.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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