Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
653 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 410 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2023

Key Messages

- Hot conditions continue this afternoon for areas south of this
morning's thunderstorms.

- Additional rounds of strong to severe storms are possible this
evening. Primary hazards include high winds, large hail, and heavy
rainfall.

Detailed Discussion

A very dynamic short term forecast with today being fairly complex.
An MCS moved across the northern part of the area this morning. This
system ejected some outflow boundaries to the south that could be
seen as a streak of dark clouds rolling across the region. The
"cooler" air that moved with this outflow did impede daytime heating
enough to keep much of the area below heat advisory criteria which
is welcome. However, heat indices still reached into the mid to
upper 90s. There is still a large dichotomy of temperatures across
the region. Much of northern MO where the thunderstorms remained in
the upper 80's. By contrast, areas to the south are expected to
reach into the 90's with heat indices approaching 100F.

An upper level shortwave trough is expected to pass through the
region later this afternoon and evening. The low level evidence of
this system can be seen in observations across south central Kansas.
Convection this evening is anticipated to spark across either a
convergent boundary located along I-70 across central and eastern KS
or another convergent boundary across far northern MO along the
MO/IA border. Most guidance has been suggesting initiation along the
northern boundary which is ongoing at the time of writing. The
mesoscale environment across this region is not as favorable for
strong convection due to the residual effects of this morning's
storms. However, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible with storms
across the northern part of MO.

This boundary is expected to sag southward toward the southern
boundary along I-70. Air temperatures in the low to mid 90s and
dewpoints in the low 70s setup an fairly unstable environment,
especially south of the MO River. Around sunset, the low level jet
is expected to ramp up across SE KS which further enhances moisture
transport into the southwest portion of the CWA. This pushes 2"+
PWAT values to go with steep lapse rates which point toward the
potential for efficient heavy rainfall, large hail, and high winds.
The tornado threat continues to remain fairly low, but not zero.
While heavy rain is possible, storm motions are expected to be fast
enough that flash flooding should not be a concern.

Slight ridging tomorrow provides a short break in the rain; however,
temperatures are once again expected to climb into the low to mid
90s across the area. Fortunately, dew points gradually lower through
the day which curtail some of the hot and humid effects, but heat
index values are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s. Multiple
shortwave troughs move through the area Friday keeping scattered
showers and thunderstorms around through the day. Shortwave ridging
builds into the weekend keeping that mostly dry before another wave
of precipitation Monday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2023

VFR conditions are expected ahead of another round of showers and
thunderstorms during the overnight hours. Storms are forecasted
to form across east central KS and progress south and eastward.
Impacts are expected to be primarily south of the MO River. Rain
saturated air behind the storms may lead to some patchy fog
towards sunrise. After sunrise, winds become more northeasterly.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-060.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ053-054.

&&

Discussion...Pesel
Aviation...Pesel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
443 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-130945-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
443 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Severe storms are possible today. Storms may affect northern
 Missouri this morning. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard
 with that activity.

 Another round of storms is possible Wednesday afternoon over eastern
 Kansas and western Missouri. Large hail and damaging winds are the
 most likely hazards with this activity.

 Dangerous heat is possible over east central Kansas to central
 Missouri. Heat indices as high as 110 are possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible from Thursday night
 through Friday. The threat of severe weather is low.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
554 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Salisbury               39.43N 92.80W
07/12/2023                   Chariton           MO   911 Call Center

            Powerlines and trees down.

&&

BT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
744 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

KSZ060-130115-
Linn KS-
744 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Linn
County through 815 PM CDT...

At 744 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Parker, or 11 miles east of Garnett, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Parker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3815 9508 3821 9508 3825 9507 3826 9506
      3836 9506 3839 9498 3839 9482 3819 9475
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 253DEG 11KT 3827 9503

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
824 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     Hail             3 NE Mound City         38.18N 94.79W
07/12/2023  M1.00 inch       Linn               KS   911 Call Center

&&