Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
557 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 321 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2023

Key Message:

- Hot holiday afternoon followed by showers and thunderstorms
  tonight into Wednesday morning. Much cooler weather for the
  remainder of the work week.

One final afternoon of sweltering heat before notable changes occur
for the region. As of this afternoon, temperatures have soared well
into the 90s, with the KC urban core solidly in the middle 90s.
The focus will shift from heat to potential thunderstorms late
this evening into Wednesday morning as a cold front pushes
southeastward into portions of Nebraska and Iowa. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected to initiate along the
boundary by early evening, approaching the NW sections of the CWA
around 10 PM. With stronger shear residing north of the boundary,
overall storm organization and longevity are in question, and
subsequent cold pool consolidation lends further uncertainty to
specific timing and strength. Main consensus is for a forward-
propagating, outflow-driven cluster of convection to be in a
weakening phase as it moves into/through the CWA late tonight into
Wednesday morning. A few stronger storms with enhanced wind gusts
of 40-50 mph cannot be ruled out, but hail will be a much lower
concern. Depending on coverage and intensity, some areas may
receive up to an inch of rain.

Most convection will be in a low-intensity state by sunrise
Wednesday, with the synoptic surface cold front entering NW MO (the
convective outflow boundary with northerly winds will likely we
south of the CWA by sunrise). Additional scattered showers with
perhaps a rumble of thunder will be possible during the day
Wednesday, with the best chances shifting from north to south by
afternoon. A break in the heat will certainly be noted, with highs
much cooler behind the front in the upper 70s. A few areas, if
sufficient clearing can occur, may warm into the lower 90s over
central Missouri. Most rain chances will conclude by Wednesday
evening, but a low probability glancing blow of showers may occur
overnight depending on the evolution of a thunderstorm complex over
central Kansas.

Thursday and Friday will feature well-below normal temperatures for
July, with highs in the 70s and 80s both days as surface high
pressure remains in control. As the highs shifts eastward,
isentropic ascent will yield scattered showers and thunderstorms
beginning Friday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 551 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2023

VFR conditions expected through the evening. Overnight a weakening
line of showers and thunderstorms expected to move through the
TAF sites. While widespread severe weather is not expected, some
gusty winds could be possible as storms move through the TAF
sites. Thunderstorm activity is expected to clear TAF sites
Wednesday morning, but could see some showers linger through the
late morning. Otherwise expect ceilings to gradually fall to MVFR
Wednesday morning with improving conditions by the evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...HB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
520 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051030-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
520 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Temperatures will be in the middle 90s this afternoon, with heat
indices around 100 degrees.

Strong thunderstorms move in later tonight, through the overnight
period. Gusty winds 40-60 mph and periods of heavy rain will be the
primary concerns.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong thunderstorms possible in central and southern Missouri
Wednesday afternoon.

Next appreciable chance for rain comes late this week into the
weekend.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1115 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

KSZ025-102-103-MOZ011-012-020-028-050445-
Doniphan KS-Atchison KS-Leavenworth KS-Platte MO-Buchanan MO-Holt MO-
Andrew MO-
1115 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Doniphan,
northwestern Leavenworth, Atchison, Buchanan, southeastern Holt,
northwestern Platte and southern Andrew Counties through 1145 PM
CDT...

At 1114 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Oregon to near Effingham to near Hoyt. Movement
was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
St. Joseph, Leavenworth, Atchison, Savannah, Weston, Wathena, Elwood,
Highland, Troy, Country Club Villa, Country Club, Oregon, Agency,
Effingham, Amazonia, Rushville, Lancaster, Forest City, Easton and
White Cloud.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 34 and 71.
 Interstate 229 between mile markers 0 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas...and northwestern Missouri. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch also remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas...and west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3965 9556 3965 9534 4000 9534 4002 9462
      3945 9483 3920 9518 3942 9518 3942 9557
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 271DEG 23KT 3996 9515 3951 9536 3929 9566

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Leighton

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
1154 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Atchison                39.56N 95.11W
07/04/2023  E60 MPH          Atchison           KS   Public

&&

AK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
1157 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNE Saint Joseph Airp 39.77N 94.91W
07/04/2023  M66 MPH          Buchanan           MO   ASOS

&&

AK

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