Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.Discussion...
Issued at 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2023

Overview:

A heat advisory remains in effect through 7pm Friday evening.
Temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 will be possible south
of I- 70. Heat indices around 105 can be expected. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Friday evening mainly along and
north of I-70. A few storms could be severe with strong winds as
the main hazard. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Saturday. Cooler temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90
are expected through the weekend.

Details:

Like yesterday, storms moved into norther Missouri early this
morning bringing strong winds to similar locations that were
impacted Thursday. Thankfully these storms were not as strong, but a
few gusts up to 60 mph were still reported. These storms sent out an
outflow boundary that pushed south through the morning. This kept
our late morning temperatures just a bit cooler than yesterday.
Even with the boundary moving through, it has had little impact
on our afternoon temperatures in the heat advisory. As clouds
quickly cleared out this afternoon a warm air has pushed back
north bringing hot and humid conditions to southern parts of the
area. Expect those in the advisory to see afternoon temperatures
approach 100 degrees for the second day in a row. In addition,
with dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s, heat
indices will be around 105. A few locations may briefly reach
around 110 this afternoon. If you plan to spend time outdoors this
afternoon, take the necessary precautions. Stay hydrated with
water and take frequent breaks in air conditioning.

Outside of heat potential this afternoon, also expect storm
development across northeastern Kansas and north central Missouri. A
residual boundary currently is draped across the I-70 corridor.
Additionally a warm front will slide northeast out of central
Kansas. As this boundary moves northeast expect storms to become
possible along it this evening. With ML CAPE values around
2000-3000 j/Kg and steep lapse rate, expect for a few storms to
be strong to severe. The caveat is that shear is fairly weak so
some question remains on how sustainable storm activity will be as
it moves east this evening. There is additional uncertainty as
the location of the storms which will be very dependent on how
far north our frontal boundary can make it this afternoon so we
will continue to monitor. The greatest severe threat will be large
hail and damaging winds. Sounding show that mixing through the
afternoon will allow for drying in the low levels and inverted V
soundings. This would point to severe downdraft winds being the
greatest threat with storms this evening. Severe potential will
dwindle in the early overnight period.

Heading into the overnight, the shortwave will move northeast
into the forecast area bringing renewed chances for shower and
thunderstorm activity. Additionally a cold front will be sent
through the area Saturday morning which will provide some relief
from the heat finally. Shower and thunderstorms will continue to
be possible along the front mainly across northern Missouri
through the day. More isolated activity will be possible farther
south. Right now it looks like severe potential will be fairly
limited Saturday with best severe parameters remaining east of the
forecast area. Models depict and MCS developing in the Springfield
area and shifting east. This activity will most likely remain
south of our forecast area, but cant completely rule out a few
strong to severe storms, especially in eastern parts of the CWA
where stronger instability exists. As far as temperatures
Saturday,there will be some variability across the forecast area.
Northern parts of the area will remain in the low to mid 80s.
Locations south of I-70 may still approach 90 degrees. Still, this
will be a welcomed relief after a sweltering week.

Isolated to scattered shower or thunderstorm activity will linger
into Sunday morning as the wave makes its final push to the east
with dry weather returning by Sunday afternoon. Expect high
temperatures to be similar to Saturday with mid 80s to near 90
expected across the forecast area. The upper pattern becomes more
zonal heading into Monday which will keep weather fairly quiet
for the early week. Temperatures will be increasing each day with
low 90s expected for Monday and mid 90s by Tuesday. Best chances
for showers and thunderstorms will hold off until Tuesday night
into Wednesday when a cold front moves into the area. This will
cool temperatures for northern parts of the area on Wednesday back
to the 80s. Southern parts of the area may still reach the mid
90s depending on the timing of the cold front Wednesday. Lower
chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain for the late
week with temperatures remaining in the 80s through this time.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2023

Main concern will be thunderstorm activity this evening. Cumulus
clouds have been developing the last few hours across the KC
Metro and a few storms have started east of the terminals. More
development is expected this evening. Thunderstorms likely to
remain isolated and discrete, but has a good chance of moving over
the terminals. Therefore, will use a tempo group for a few hours
to cover the isolated thunderstorm coverage, and then switch to
showers for the overnight hours. More development is possible on
Saturday afternoon but will be highly dependent on Friday night
activity. Cloud bases may drop to MVFR. It may be possible for
brief period of IFR visibility with heavier downpours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...HB
Aviation...Krull

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
642 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-011145-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
642 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and TonightDangerous heat is expected to continue through Friday with heat
 index values of 97 to 107 degrees Friday afternoon.

 A few strong storms may be possible Friday evening...gusty winds
 and small hail are the main threats.

 Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this morning between
7 AM and noon across northern Missouri. Winds to 50 mph and hail
around a quarter sized will be possible.

 Dangerous heat is expected again today. Heat indices of 100 to 105
are expected this afternoon mainly south of HWY 36. A heat advisory
remains in effect through Friday afternoon.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

 More storms will be possible on Saturday, with some possibly being
strong.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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